Injured Colorado Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin was skating in a non-contact jersey earlier this week and there was some hope that maybe he would return to game action in relatively short order. That does not appear to be the case as the team provided and update on his status and we shouldn't expected him back until next week at the earliest:

Bednar doesn't think we'll see Nichushkin this week, but there's a chance for next week.

Girard day-to-day, chance he plays tomorrow but no guarantee.

Kylington and Wood a little further out, once they join team for skates will have a better idea for timeline, via @AltitudeSR

— Evan Rawal (@evanrawal) January 15, 2025

Colorado has a four-game week next week so getting Nichushkin back for that would be nice.

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John Tavares left Toronto's practice on Wednesday with a lower-body injury, and he's still being evaluated:

Tavares had a lower body injury during practice, status for tomorrow vs, the Devils unknown, McCabe nears return. Leafs sent D Marshall Rifai back to Marlies earlier today.

— Lance Hornby 🇺🇦 (@sunhornby) January 15, 2025

Just something to keep an eye on. Hopefully it's nothing serious.

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Pittsburgh put goalie Tristan Jarry on waivers on Wednesday. This will be Jarry's second stint in the AHL this season. He hasn't played well, but it's worth mentioning that Alex Nedeljkovic hasn't been any better, so maybe there's something else besides goaltender performance that is the issue here.

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Hampus Lindholm was skating in a non-contact jersey for Boston at Wednesday's practice:

Mark Kastelic and Hampus Lindholm are present for #Bruins practice wearing maroon (noncontact) jerseys. Lindholm did a pretty extensive on-ice prepractice workout. Charlie McAvoy also skated prior to the team practice. pic.twitter.com/FOUmbPBDDg

— Jim McBride (@globejimmcbride) January 15, 2025

Lindholm has already missed two months after an injury off a blocked shot in mid-November, and the team could really use him back in the lineup.

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There were only two games on Wednesday night, and the first was Buffalo at home to Carolina that featured one of the funniest hat tricks you'll ever see.

Ryan McLeod had goals in the first and second period to help the Sabres build a 3-0 lead heading into the third. Carolina scored twice, one from Jaccob Slavin and one from Martin Necas, to bring it to a 3-2 game. With the empty net, McLeod was racing down the ice to fire a loose puck into the empty cage when Brent Burns slashed McLeod's stick in half. The referees awarded an automatic goal to McLeod to give the Sabres a 4-2 lead that they held onto for the win. The goal was changed to Tage Thompson as McLeod had never actually touched the puck, but then after the game finished the official scorer changed it back to McLeod. Despite the Sabres not actually having a shot on goal in the third period, McLeod had capped off his hat trick. Hockey, man.

McLeod's three goals now give him 10 on the season in 44 games played. His career-high is 12 goals, which came last year. It seems like he's well on his way to surpassing that.

Dylan Cozens had the other goals for the Sabres, his 10^th of the season. That makes three goals and four assists in Cozens's last 10 games, so hopefully he's starting to right the ship.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was fantastic in net, stopping 35 of 37 shots for his 14^th win of the season.

Burns assisted on both Carolina goals, totaled eight shots, and added a block. That is 12 points and 54 shots in Burns's last 20 games.

Dustin Tokarski took the loss for Carolina, allowing three goals on 21 shots.

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The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Midseason Fantasy Hockey Guide is releasing later today! It has rest-of-year updates, check-ins on the seasons of prospects as well as those who may appear by the end of the NHL regular season, advanced stats, and a whole lot more. Help support what we do by grabbing a copy in the Dobber Shop here.

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In my Ramblings on Tuesday, I talked about changes certain players have made in their approach to offence, focusing on those who are creating more (or less) off the cycle and forecheck. Let's check in on the other side of that coin and look for players who are creating more (or less) off the rush. All this tracking data comes from AllThreeZones and is all at 5-on-5.

In 2022-23, the average forward managed 9.23 shots or assists on teammate shots off the rush per 60 minutes. In 2023-24, that number dropped to 8.01 shots/assists off the rush per 60 minutes. That number has declined again 2024-25, landing at 7.94 as of Wednesday afternoon. The reason that is important is because across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, there was a very strong correlation (the r-squared number) between a forward's offensive creation off the rush and their on-ice goals-for rate relative to their team. That means players who created more off the rush tended to have higher goals-for rates compared to their teammates:

Comparatively, the correlation between creating offence on the cycle/forecheck and goals-for rate relative to teammates was still good (for hockey, anyway), but nowhere near that number created off the rush:

What makes it look a lot clearer is just looking at the leaderboard of the top forwards creating offence off the rush across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. Every forward on this list was likely a top-75 pick in fantasy drafts this season, and about half the list were top-20 picks:

So, let's look at players with changing rates of offence created on the rush. We will limit it to forward with at least 400 tracked minutes across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons who also have at least 100 tracked minutes in 2024-25. Here is what stood out to me.

Carolina Hurricanes

Despite a league-wide drop in offence off the rush thus far in 2024-25, the Carolina Hurricanes forwards have increased their rate by about 1.5%. They have made some changes in their approach to scoring, and that is very apparent when looking at the top of the leaderboard for changes in rush offence, which features two Hurricanes forwards among the top-5:

On a per-minute basis, Jarvis's points rate (1.77) has declined when compared to last season (2.11), but is basically in line with his average from the last two seasons (1.74). It is notable that he has had that stable point production because his personal shooting percentage (8.8%) is much lower than it was across the prior two seasons (10.9%). That would tell me there is a production rise to come, so maybe an opportunity to trade for him at a low price.

Dallas Stars

Mason Marchment sits near the top of that earlier leaderboard chart. Before his injury, his 5-on-5 points rate was 10% higher than his three-year average and around the 93^rd percentile of the league. He will be worth monitoring whenever he returns because if he can keep creating that quick-strike offence, he can keep that high rate of production rolling.

What is more interesting is he is not the only Dallas player with a big change in offence. In Tuesday's Ramblings, we noted how Jason Robertson has been creating a lot less off the cycle. Conversely, several of his teammates have been creating more off the rush:

Each of those four names is at least one standard deviation above the league average by improvement in offence created off the rush, or basically an 84^th percentile mark or higher. Wyatt Johnston may not be performing to the level fantasy managers were hoping for, but he does have 23 points in his last 25 games, so the turnaround is well under way. Also, after Dallas finished 5^th in the league by goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, they are again 5^th this season. The team is scoring very well once again, they just need to get the power play going.

Colorado Avalanche

I have a newsletter I write once a week and back in late November, I wrote about the changes to Nathan MacKinnon's offensive profile. Basically, he was shooting less and passing more, which is why his shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is currently on pace for his lowest mark since his rookie season. It isn't just passing, though, as both he and Mikko Rantanen are creating far less off the rush than they normally do, showing two of the four largest drops when compared to 2022-24:

This is one of those 'good in real life, bad in fantasy' moments. Colorado's top line is focused less on creating those rush chances and keying in on solid defence. As a result, the team is giving up over 20% fewer shots with MacKinnon and Rantanen on the ice at 5-on-5 than their two-year average. That is a substantial defensive improvement, and the goals against rate has improved, too (and things are much, much better since MacKenzie Blackwood showed up). Those are things that can help the team win games, especially in the playoffs.

By the same token, MacKinnon's goals-per-game rate is an eight-year low and nearly half what it was last season. He is shooting and scoring a lot less than usual, and fantasy managers don't want to see that. Rantanen has been better, but he's also shooting less than usual, so we'll see how things go when he's not shooting over 20%.

Montreal Canadiens

Among those top-4 names for drop in rush offence is Cole Caufield, which wouldn't be a big deal in and of itself if line mate Nick Suzuki wasn't among the top-10 names by drop in offence created off the rush, too:

Caufield is at the top of the NHL by goals, primary points, and total points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (honestly), and Suzuki's points rate is 24% higher than his two-year average entering the 2024-25 campaign. While Montreal is shooting 12.9% with the duo on the ice, which is high, even if the team was shooting 10% (lower than their two-year average), they would still be scoring more goals than they were last season. This is a case where top offensive players have created far less off the rush but it is still helping them produce well. It will be important to keep track on how they fare over the next three months when the shooting percentages come down a bit.