The Four Nations Cup kicked off on Wednesday night with Team Canada hosting Team Sweden in Montreal, with Canada coming out on top 4-3 in overtime. After Canada largely dominated through the first 20 minutes, Sweden had long stretches of controlled play after that and it made for a wildly entertaining game.

It didn't take long for Canada's top talent to make their mark on the game as the top power play unit scored a minute into the first period. It went from Connor McDavid to Sidney Crosby, and Crosby with a no-look backhand pass across the slot to Nathan MacKinnon:

yeah that'll do pic.twitter.com/KmcnkJEvr0

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) February 13, 2025

Probably a good idea to stay out of the box against Canada.

Brad Marchand scored later in the period to give the Canadians a 2-0 lead after the first period.

Shea Theodore took a hard hit from Adrian Kempe early in the second period, left the game, and did not return. Indications from the broadcast was that it was his wrist, and coach Jon Cooper said Theodore is out for the rest of the tournament. Such is the downside of having a competitive tournament at this time of the year.

Jonas Brodin and Mark Stone traded second-period goals to give us a 3-1 Canada lead heading into the final frame.

Adrian Kempe and Joel Eriksson Ek scored goals about seven minutes apart in the third and that sent us to overtime. Six minutes into overtime, Mitch Marner picked up a pass from Crosby and fired a wrist shot from around the top of the circle and past goaltender Filip Gustavsson to lift Canada to the 4-3 win.

Crosby was named first star of the game with three assists. He and Lucas Raymond (two assists) were the only players with multi-point games.

MacKinnon had that goal, six shots, three blocks, and two hits. Victor Hedman had an assist, a shot, and three blocks.

Jordan Binnington stopped 23 of 26 shots for the win.

*

With the NHL on pause, now is a good time to look back on the season so far. We are over two-thirds of the way through the season, so we have a pretty good idea of who is going to live up to their preseason projections and who won't. I did a check-in back in mid-December on players I was on high who weren't doing well, players I was high on who were doing well, players I was low on who weren't succeeding, and players I was low on who were succeeding.

Today, let's do an update on those. We will do it across four Ramblings again: today there will be players I was high on who were successful to start the season, and what things have looked like since. Tomorrow will be players I was high on who started the season poorly . These are based off my personal preseason projections, which are all projected for 82 games. Player data is from Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick.

Successes in December

John Tavares (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Preseason Projection: 32 goals, 41 assists, 30 PP points, 273 shots, 123 hits, 33 blocks

As of Today (48 games): 21 goals, 24 assists, 10 PP points, 131 shots, 59 hits, 29 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 36 goals, 41 assists, 17 PP points, 224 shots, 101 hits, 50 blocks

Overall, not a lot of complaints about my Tavares projection. The goals and assists are very close, the power-play points, shots, and hits are light, and the blocks are ahead of pace. He has been a top-80 player in standard Yahoo! leagues, a top-50 player in ESPN points leagues, and has largely been a success this season. He also has five power-play points in his last 15 games after putting up just five such points in his first 33 games. If the Toronto power play hadn't started the season so modestly, his numbers would look even better.  

The stretch run for Tavares will be interesting. Both he and the team have stumbled in calendar 2025 as the Leafs have a plus-1 goal differential in their last 17 games and Tavares has 7 points in 11 games since January 1^st (he missed some time due to injury). Maybe a reset for him and the roster over the Four Nations break will do some good because if he can just replicate what he's done so far across the final eight weeks, he'll end up a very valuable fantasy player this season.

Dylan Guenther (Utah Utes)

Preseason Projection: 31 goals, 36 assists, 21 PP points, 218 shots, 67 hits, 48 blocks

As of Today (44 games): 20 goals, 21 assists, 18 PP points, 121 shots, 28 hits, 26 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 37 goals, 39 assists, 34 PP points, 226 shots, 52 hits, 49 blocks

Guenther has been a full-fledged breakout star this season. He has a very balanced fantasy output across all key categories, his 82-game pace is for a 35-35 season, and he doesn't turn 22 years old until April. Going back to last season, he sits with 1.56 goals per 60 minutes, which is 12^th in the league. His points per 60 minutes is 3.12, or a 90^th percentile mark. He has done nothing but be a genuine top-line scorer since his call-up in January of 2024, and the first half of this season showed progression from the second half of last season.

The better news is that after returning from injury in early February, he was getting a lot more ice time by averaging just over 20 minutes a game across four appearances. Up until his injury, he was averaging 16:16 per game in ice time. Even if his recent number comes down to around 18 minutes, a couple more minutes per game provides a bit of a cushion for any production regression, as well as a boost to his potential for peripherals. He has been at least a top-100 player in most formats, and maybe a top-50 player on a per-game basis. Barring a severe cold streak, it seems as if that's where he'll end up.

Robert Thomas (St. Louis Blues)

Preseason Projection: 27 goals, 62 assists, 29 PP points, 170 shots, 16 hits, 47 blocks

As of Today (44 games): 13 goals, 28 assists, 7 PP points, 104 shots, 7 hits, 34 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 24 goals, 52 assists, 13 PP points, 193 shots, 13 hits, 63 blocks

There has been a bit of a downturn for Thomas. He started the season with 23 points in 20 games but has just 18 points in his last 24 games. One of the issues has been ice time, as he's lost 1:39 per game in TOI compared to earlier in the season. That alone has probably cost him a couple of points.

The big problem has been the St. Louis power play. After averaging 23 power-play points per 82 games from 2021-2024, Thomas is pacing for just 13 this season. That has been the difference between pacing for 76 points and pacing over a point per game. With Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich on the ice for the power play from 2021-2024, the Blues scored 9.1 goals per 60 minutes. This season, that number is 6.44. To make matters worse, the Blues are drawing a league-worst 2.25 power plays per game.

At even strength, Thomas is actually averaging a three-year high of 2.75 points per 60 minutes. But his points/60 on the power play is a four-year low, the team's PP goal rate is a four-year low, St. Louis doesn't draw power plays, and Thomas's ice time is declining. It is lining up for a season where he is very successful at even strength, but without that power play success, living up to his preseason fantasy projection is very unlikely.

Zach Werenski (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Preseason Projection: 14 goals, 51 assists, 19 PP points, 244 shots, 155 blocks, 24 hits

As of Today (55 games): 17 goals, 42 assists, 19 PP points, 203 shots, 93 blocks, 13 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 25 goals, 63 assists, 28 PP points, 303 shots, 139 blocks, 19 hits

Full disclosure: Columbus was a team I was very high on, relatively speaking, for fantasy this year, resulting in Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko, and Zach Werenski being among my most-drafted players across my leagues. A lot of it had to do with draft positions, and Werenski is a good example of that as he had an ADP around (or outside) the top-20 defencemen. From 2021-2024, his 82-game paces were for 14 goals, 48 assists, and 249 shots. The two things holding him back were staying healthy and a good Columbus power play.

On the health side (and as I write this with my right hand, I am furiously rapping my knuckles off my wooden side table next to my desk), he has missed just one game. As for the power play, Columbus is scoring more goals per minute with Werenski on the ice in any season since his rookie 2016-17 season.

There are some concerns as his individual points percentage is a career-high 65.6% (he leads the league's defencemen) and Columbus has key injuries from Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko. It wouldn't be surprising to see Werenski hit a downturn over the final eight weeks, and that would be awful for fantasy playoffs. On the whole, though, even if his production halved over the final eight weeks, he would finish with a 20-plus-goal, 50-plus-assist, 20-plus-PPP, 250-plus-shot season. We take those from a 20^th overall defenceman.

Jake Walman (San Jose Sharks)

Preseason Projection: 15 goals, 22 assists, 16 PP points, 192 shots, 193 blocks, 54 hits

As of Today (44 games): 6 goals, 23 assists, 7 PP points, 112 shots, 88 blocks, 43 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 11 goals, 43 assists, 13 PP points, 209 shots, 164 blocks, 80 hits

The preseason projection looks to be high on goals, PP points, and blocks, and light on assists, shots, and hits. Overall, it is hard to complain much about what we've gotten from Walman considering he was frequently drafted outside the top-50 defencemen and he's been a top-30 defenceman both in standard Yahoo! leagues and ESPN points leagues. Walman has accomplished that, by the way, while missing 13 games. He is pacing for 69 games played while still being a top-30 fantasy defenceman and shooting lower (5.4%) than his three-year average (7.2%).

There are concerns, of course. The first is that with 25 games remaining on the schedule, San Jose is tied for the fewest games left to play. No team has more than 28 on their schedule, so the gap isn't huge, but it matters.

The second concern is that San Jose is an awful team that has already traded Mikael Granlund. Once we get past the William Eklund–Macklin Celebrini–Tyler Toffoli line, there just isn't much talent. Walman only needs 11 points in 25 games to reach the 40-point mark, so he's going to have a career fantasy season regardless, but we may have already seen the best we'll get from him this season.