Given that we're on the Four Nations break, there may not a lot of injury updates from players not in the tournament. Just before the Canada/Sweden game on Wednesday night, though, the Seattle Kraken announced that forward Jordan Eberle, who has been on the of the lineup since mid-November due to pelvic surgery, was sent to the AHL on a conditioning stint:

The #SeaKraken have assigned forward Jordan Eberle to the Coachella Valley @Firebirds on a conditioning loan.

— Seattle Kraken PR (@SeattleKrakenPR) February 13, 2025

The team clarified that he's not cleared to return to game action yet, but that he is participating in team activities and getting up to speed. He may not be ready to return in nine days when the NHL schedule resumes, but he's certainly on the right track.

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A sort-of update on Vegas Golden Knights defenceman Shea Theodore:

Golden Knights say Shea Theodore (upper body) is week-to-week.

— Danny Webster (@DannyWebster21) February 13, 2025

Of course, Theodore was injured during Canada's game on Wednesday night. The team already said he'd be out for the tournament, so this isn't a big surprise, but this is a key player lost for both Canada and Vegas.

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Night 2 of the Four Nations Cup went Thursday night with Team USA and Team Sweden facing off. While it had a lot more physicality than the Canada/Sweden game the night before, it did not have anywhere near the dramatics as USA skated away with a huge 6-1 win. This game was 1-1 after the first period and 2-1 in USA's favour after two periods, which might indicate this was a close contest, but USA largely controlled the play from start to finish.

The Brothers Tkachuk led the way as Matthew Tkachuk had two goals (both on the power play), one assist, eight shots, and two hits while brother Brady Tkachuk had two goals, five shots, and eight hits. Their particular blend of skill and punishment was on display all night long as they both had tremendous games.

Both Jake Guentzel and Matt Boldy had a goal and an assist as Guentzel was a fixture on the top power-play unit. Defenceman Zach Werenski led the team in ice time and had a trio of assists (two on the power play) with a shot, a block, two PIMs, and a hit.

Connor Hellebuyck was solid in net, stopping 20 of 21 shots.

Henri Jokiharju scored the lone goal for Finland and Juuse Saros was in net for all six goals on 32 shots faced.

Friday is a day off for the tournament and it will resume on Saturday with Sweden/Finland in the afternoon and USA/Canada at night.

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In yesterday's Ramblings, I started reviewing seasons of skaters based off my personal preseason projections. Those Ramblings covered players I was high on that were having good seasons two months into the season, how they've fared since, and what we might expect down the stretch.

Today, we'll move on to players I was high on in the preseason that were not having good seasons by mid-December, and whether things have changed. As always, data used is from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools.

Failures in December

Timo Meier (New Jersey Devils)

Preseason Projection: 42 goals, 35 assists, 29 PP points, 297 shots, 132 hits, 49 blocks

As of Today (56 games): 15 goals, 23 assists, 8 PP points, 159 shots, 91 hits, 45 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 22 goals, 34 assists, 12 PP points, 233 shots, 133 hits, 66 blocks

The assist, hit, and block projections are largely bang-on. That is good. What isn't good is that the goals, shots, and PP points are way off, and that difference is nuking his fantasy value. Because some of those peripherals have been good, Meier has largely been fine, being a top-75 fantasy skater in Yahoo! standard leagues and ESPN points league. It isn't far off from his ADP on those sites, so things really don't look awful.  

What is bad is I had him valued much higher than those ADPs, and he's been nowhere close to that valuable. The problems are numerous:

• Ice time is down slightly from last season
• Lost the top PP role in October
• Shooting 9.4% against a three-year average of 12%, and 13.3% in his New Jersey tenure
• Shots per 60 minutes a career-low

We saw Meier finish last season on a heater, posting 18 goals, 12 assists, and 91 shots across his final 26 games. New Jersey has 25 games left on their schedule. A heater like that would put a 30-30 season with 250 shots on the table. But he needs that to happen, or he won't come close to living up to my preseason projection, and 25 games is tied for the fewest games remaining on any team's schedule. Even worse is they return from the Four Nations break and play a back-to-back on the 22^nd and 23^rd of February. That means starting Monday, February 24^th, they have 23 games left.  

Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal Canadiens)

Preseason Projection: 25 goals, 40 assists, 21 PP points, 193 shots, 164 hits, 77 blocks

As of Today (53 games): 8 goals, 22 assists, 7 PP points, 71 shots, 121 hits, 39 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 12 goals, 34 assists, 11 PP points, 110 shots, 187 hits, 60 blocks

As with Meier, the assist, hit, and block projections for Slafkovský have been fine. It is the goal, shot, and power-play point projections that have been way off, and it's what has kept him from being a reliable fantasy option. The hits and blocks are nice, and combine that with a 35-point season, and it's a solid effort in banger formats. But it's nowhere near the preseason projection, and considering he was drafted consistently between pick-75 and pick-150 in all kinds of fantasy formats, I'm not the only one who missed the mark.

The silver lining is that Slafkovský is registering a point on just 52.6% of goals scored with him on the ice. That was 58.8% across his first two seasons, so an uptick there would mean more production. But he is shooting less (both attempts and on goal) than his first two seasons, and his ice time has declined from 2023-24. With a low shot rate and less ice time, nothing short of a scorching-hot month-long stretch can save Slafkovský's fantasy season.

Adam Fantilli (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Preseason Projection: 31 goals, 33 assists, 16 PP points, 227 shots, 113 hits, 45 blocks

As of Today (56 games): 15 goals, 17 assists, 4 PP points, 123 shots, 74 hits, 43 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 22 goals, 25 assists, 6 PP points, 180 shots, 110 hits, 63 blocks

Fantilli had a very slow start to the season with 6 goals, 8 assists, and 67 shots in 35 games leading to the Christmas break. Since then, he has 9 goals, 9 assists, and 56 shots in 21 games. What he has done since that holiday break has been close to what I was expecting this season.

It is notable that just 1 of 18 points in those recent 21 appearances was on the power play. Despite the team finding PP success, when the roster is healthy, Fantilli was often stuck on the second unit. I genuinely thought he'd be a staple of the top PP unit this season, but until the Sean Monahan injury, that really wasn't the case. And even getting top PP minutes when Monahan was out didn't help much as Columbus's PP goal scoring declined significantly with their top-line centre injured.

If Fantilli can have a 20-goal, 50-point, 180-shot season, I think most people would be encouraged about his future. The Blue Jackets look to be a team on the rise, and while Fantilli may not hit my lofty projection this season, there is a lot to like for years to come.

Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins)

Preseason Projection: 12 goals, 52 assists, 23 PP points, 145 shots, 172 blocks, 166 hits

As of Today (50 games): 7 goals, 16 assists, 4 PP points, 98 shots, 81 blocks, 89 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 12 goals, 26 assists, 7 PP points, 160 shots, 133 blocks, 146 hits

At 0.32 assists per game, McAvoy's pace is a career-worst mark. At 0.08 power-play points per game, McAvoy's pace is a five-year low. Put those two things together and we have the season that McAvoy has had to date. Boston is currently 25^th in the league by goals per minute overall, or lower than Ottawa and Philadelphia. The Bruins are 30^th in the league by goals per minute on the power play, ahead of only Anaheim and the New York Islanders.

Boston has just been a poor offensive team this season and while there weren't expectations that they'd be elite, expectations were certainly higher than 'barely outscoring the Chicago Blackhawks'.

There is no chance McAvoy comes close to his preseason projection for assists or PP points, and there is even a small downturn (both by my projections and based off last year) in shots and blocks. He can be better, but Boston has to be a lot better, and it just doesn't seem probable that the Bruins suddenly turn into a top-10 scoring team over their final 25 games without a lot of luck.

Justin Faulk (St. Louis Blues)

Preseason Projection: 8 goals, 43 assists, 19 PP points, 194 shots, 147 blocks, 111 hits

As of Today (52 games): 2 goals, 17 assists, 8 PP points, 85 shots, 74 blocks, 60 hits

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 3 goals, 27 assists, 13 PP points, 134 blocks, 95 hits

If you told me in September that with Torey Krug out for the season, Faulk would skate nearly 22:30 per game, earn the most power-play ice time of any of their defencemen, and put up around 230 hits+blocks, I would have probably drafted him on every roster I had given his very low ADP. It is a good thing no one told me that, though, because I did draft him frequently enough and it has been an absolute catastrophe.

There is no need to go long here. Faulk's numbers took a downturn last year and are even worse this year. It is a wonder he's held onto the roles he's had considering the Blues are getting absolutely wrecked with him on the ice at 5-on-5 (20 goals for, 32 against). Barring the intervention of a deity, this one is over.