Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

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1. The Top 100 Roto Rankings for February were published Saturday (yesterday). Based on reader feedback and my other observations, I’ll discuss three players who will be new to the Top 100 this month, as well as three more players who have either fallen significantly or completely out of the Top 100.

Risers:

Matt Duchene

The addition of Duchene to the Top 100 is a suggestion from an X follower, and I am certainly on board with the idea. Back-to-back three-point games have placed Duchene back into point-per-game territory (55 points in 55 games). In a season where more was expected of certain Stars scorers, Duchene also happens to be the teams’ leading scorer. A 22.0 SH% may pull him back down to earth, but also keep in mind that Duchene is also on another one-year contract with the Stars, so the 34-year-old veteran is perhaps playing for something for multiple years now that he is on the back half of his career. (feb15)

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2. One of the arguments against midseason international tournaments is the risk of players being injured in a tournament game. That threat came true for fantasy teams rostering Shea Theodore, as he will miss NHL regular-season games in addition to the rest of the tournament with a wrist injury. Add to that the fact that the Golden Knights have a history of LTIR’ing players and you have that unsettling feeling that Theodore could be out until the NHL playoffs. However, even assuming Theodore’s wrist is broken, his recovery timeline could allow for a return before the NHL playoffs as a best-case scenario. That could mean availability in some form for the fantasy playoffs, but again, that is if he recovers quickly. I would bet that he is out for at least a month, though.

3. Theodore is in the top 5 in scoring among defensemen (48 PTS in 55 GP) while finding his way onto Vegas’s top power play again, so he is not easily replaceable. Adding a sub-50% rostered (on Yahoo) player that receives some power-play time could be an option. That could include players like Brandt Clarke, Darren Raddysh, Jared Spurgeon, Matt Grzelcyk, or Mason Lohrei, to name a few. They won’t replicate Theodore’s production, and I’m not suggesting they’ll be on their teams’ top power play, but there’s always a small chance they could go on a run. Every league is different, so you’ll have to perform your own research and analysis.

I love these tournaments because there aren’t enough of them, so I have to accept the fact that losing Theodore from one of my contending fantasy teams is a price to pay. This particular team is already without Kirill Kaprizov and Noah Dobson, so my hope is that at least two of them return in time for my fantasy playoffs a month from now. Too much of an ask? Okay, maybe just one. This team has already clinched a playoff spot and has banked enough points to be in first place at the break, so there’s no urgency for these players to return immediately. But it would provide piece of mind.

4. Just before the Canada/Sweden game last Wednesday night, the Seattle Kraken announced that forward Jordan Eberle, who has been out of the lineup since mid-November due to pelvic surgery, was sent to the AHL on a conditioning stint. The team clarified that he’s not cleared to return to game action yet, but that he is participating in team activities and getting up to speed. He may not be ready to return when the NHL schedule resumes, but he’s certainly on the right track. (feb14)

5. In yesterday’s Ramblings (Thursday), I started reviewing seasons of skaters based on my personal preseason projections. Those Ramblings covered players I was high on that were having good seasons two months into the season, how they’ve fared since, and what we might expect down the stretch.

Today, we’ll move on to players I was high on in the preseason that were not having good seasons by mid-December, and whether things have changed. 

Failures in December:

Timo Meier (New Jersey Devils)

Preseason Projection: 42 goals, 35 assists, 29 PP points, 297 shots, 132 hits, 49 blocks

As of Today (56 games): 15 goals, 23 assists, 8 PP points, 159 shots, 91 hits, 45 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 22 goals, 34 assists, 12 PP points, 233 shots, 133 hits, 66 blocks

The assist, hit, and block projections are largely bang-on. That is good. What isn’t good is that the goals, shots, and PP points are way off, and that difference is nuking his fantasy value. Because some of those peripherals have been good, Meier has largely been fine, being a top-75 fantasy skater in Yahoo! standard leagues and ESPN points league. It isn’t far off from his ADP on those sites, so things really don’t look awful.  

What is bad is I had him valued much higher than those ADPs, and he’s been nowhere close to that valuable. The problems are numerous:

• Ice time is down slightly from last season
• Lost the top PP role in October
• Shooting 9.4% against a three-year average of 12%, and 13.3% in his New Jersey tenure
• Shots per 60 minutes a career-low

We saw Meier finish last season on a heater, posting 18 goals, 12 assists, and 91 shots across his final 26 games. New Jersey has 25 games left on their schedule. A heater like that would put a 30-30 season with 250 shots on the table. But he needs that to happen, or he won’t come close to living up to my preseason projection, and 25 games is tied for the fewest games remaining on any team’s schedule. Even worse is they return from the Four Nations break and play a back-to-back on the 22^nd and 23^rd of February. That means starting Monday, February 24^th, they have 23 games left. (feb14)

6. Juraj Slafkovsky (Montreal Canadiens)

Preseason Projection: 25 goals, 40 assists, 21 PP points, 193 shots, 164 hits, 77 blocks

As of Today (53 games): 8 goals, 22 assists, 7 PP points, 71 shots, 121 hits, 39 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 12 goals, 34 assists, 11 PP points, 110 shots, 187 hits, 60 blocks

As with Meier, the assist, hit, and block projections for Slafkovský have been fine. It is the goal, shot, and power-play point projections that have been way off, and it’s what has kept him from being a reliable fantasy option. The hits and blocks are nice, and combine that with a 35-point season, and it’s a solid effort in banger formats. But it’s nowhere near the preseason projection, and considering he was drafted consistently between pick-75 and pick-150 in all kinds of fantasy formats, I’m not the only one who missed the mark.

The silver lining is that Slafkovský is registering a point on just 52.6% of goals scored with him on the ice. That was 58.8% across his first two seasons, so an uptick there would mean more production. But he is shooting less (both attempts and on goal) than his first two seasons, and his ice time has declined from 2023-24. With a low shot rate and less ice time, nothing short of a scorching-hot month-long stretch can save Slafkovský’s fantasy season. (feb14)

7. Adam Fantilli (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Preseason Projection: 31 goals, 33 assists, 16 PP points, 227 shots, 113 hits, 45 blocks

As of Today (56 games): 15 goals, 17 assists, 4 PP points, 123 shots, 74 hits, 43 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 22 goals, 25 assists, 6 PP points, 180 shots, 110 hits, 63 blocks

Fantilli had a very slow start to the season with 6 goals, 8 assists, and 67 shots in 35 games leading to the Christmas break. Since then, he has 9 goals, 9 assists, and 56 shots in 21 games. What he has done since that holiday break has been close to what I was expecting this season.

It is notable that just 1 of 18 points in those recent 21 appearances was on the power play. Despite the team finding PP success, when the roster is healthy, Fantilli was often stuck on the second unit. I genuinely thought he’d be a staple of the top PP unit this season, but until the Sean Monahan injury, that really wasn’t the case. And even getting top PP minutes when Monahan was out didn’t help much as Columbus’s PP goal scoring declined significantly with their top-line centre injured.

If Fantilli can have a 20-goal, 50-point, 180-shot season, I think most people would be encouraged about his future. The Blue Jackets look to be a team on the rise, and while Fantilli may not hit my lofty projection this season, there is a lot to like for years to come. (feb14)

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8. With the NHL on pause, now is a good time to look back on the season so far. We are over two-thirds of the way through the season, so we have a pretty good idea of who is going to live up to their preseason projections and who won’t. I did a check-in back in mid-December on players I was high on who weren’t doing well, players I was high on who were doing well, players I was low on who weren’t succeeding, and players I was low on who were succeeding.

Today, let’s do an update on those. We will do it across four Ramblings again: today there will be players I was high on who were successful to start the season, and what things have looked like since. Tomorrow there will be players I was high on who started the season poorly . These are based off my personal preseason projections, which are all projected for 82 games.

Successes in December:

John Tavares (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Preseason Projection: 32 goals, 41 assists, 30 PP points, 273 shots, 123 hits, 33 blocks

As of Today (48 games): 21 goals, 24 assists, 10 PP points, 131 shots, 59 hits, 29 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 36 goals, 41 assists, 17 PP points, 224 shots, 101 hits, 50 blocks

Overall, not a lot of complaints about my Tavares projection. The goals and assists are very close, the power-play points, shots, and hits are light, and the blocks are ahead of pace. He has been a top-80 player in standard Yahoo! leagues, a top-50 player in ESPN points leagues, and has largely been a success this season. He also has five power-play points in his last 15 games after putting up just five such points in his first 33 games. If the Toronto power play hadn’t started the season so modestly, his numbers would look even better.  

The stretch run for Tavares will be interesting. Both he and the team have stumbled in calendar 2025 as the Leafs have a plus-1 goal differential in their last 17 games and Tavares has 7 points in 11 games since January 1^st (he missed some time due to injury). Maybe a reset for him and the roster over the Four Nations break will do some good because if he can just replicate what he’s done so far across the final eight weeks, he’ll end up a very valuable fantasy player this season. (feb13)

9. Dylan Guenther (Utah Utes)

Preseason Projection: 31 goals, 36 assists, 21 PP points, 218 shots, 67 hits, 48 blocks

As of Today (44 games): 20 goals, 21 assists, 18 PP points, 121 shots, 28 hits, 26 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 37 goals, 39 assists, 34 PP points, 226 shots, 52 hits, 49 blocks

Guenther has been a full-fledged breakout star this season. He has a very balanced fantasy output across all key categories, his 82-game pace is for a 35-35 season, and he doesn’t turn 22 years old until April. Going back to last season, he sits with 1.56 goals per 60 minutes, which is 12^th in the league. His points per 60 minutes is 3.12, or a 90^th percentile mark. He has done nothing but be a genuine top-line scorer since his call-up in January of 2024, and the first half of this season showed progression from the second half of last season.

The better news is that after returning from injury in early February, he was getting a lot more ice time by averaging just over 20 minutes a game across four appearances. Up until his injury, he was averaging 16:16 per game in ice time. Even if his recent number comes down to around 18 minutes, a couple more minutes per game provides a bit of a cushion for any production regression, as well as a boost to his potential for peripherals. He has been at least a top-100 player in most formats, and maybe a top-50 player on a per-game basis. Barring a severe cold streak, it seems as if that’s where he’ll end up. (feb13)

10. Robert Thomas (St. Louis Blues)

Preseason Projection: 27 goals, 62 assists, 29 PP points, 170 shots, 16 hits, 47 blocks

As of Today (44 games): 13 goals, 28 assists, 7 PP points, 104 shots, 7 hits, 34 blocks

Full-Season 82-Game Paces: 24 goals, 52 assists, 13 PP points, 193 shots, 13 hits, 63 blocks

There has been a bit of a downturn for Thomas. He started the season with 23 points in 20 games but has just 18 points in his last 24 games. One of the issues has been ice time, as he’s lost 1:39 per game in TOI compared to earlier in the season. That alone has probably cost him a couple of points.

The big problem has been the St. Louis power play. After averaging 23 power-play points per 82 games from 2021-2024, Thomas is pacing for just 13 this season. That has been the difference between pacing for 76 points and pacing over a point per game. With Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich on the ice for the power play from 2021-2024, the Blues scored 9.1 goals per 60 minutes. This season, that number is 6.44. To make matters worse, the Blues are drawing a league-worst 2.25 power plays per game.

At even strength, Thomas is actually averaging a three-year high of 2.75 points per 60 minutes. But his points/60 on the power play is a four-year low, the team’s PP goal rate is a four-year low, St. Louis doesn’t draw power plays, and Thomas’s ice time is declining. It is lining up for a season where he is very successful at even strength, but without that power play success, living up to his preseason fantasy projection is very unlikely. (feb13)

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11. I must say, it's a lot less fun writing the Ramblings and checking your fantasy teams when there are no games on.

Looking at the fantasy schedule that we have to deal with from the Four Nations break, games restart on Saturday Feb 22^nd, which means most leagues will have that weekend attached to the following week for a nine-day head-to-head matchup. Over those nine days, the Predators, Penguins, and Blues each play six times, so if you can, find a few of them on the wire to stream in. However, just be careful going overboard on getting those guys now, as the Penguins and Blues have very light schedules in the last few weeks of the season (the important ones).

The Senators are the only team with a league-low three games in that nine-day stretch, so avoid them for the short term.

The Kings are a nice streaming option that could fit into any lineup, with games on Mon/Wed/Fri, in addition to both Saturdays during the stretch. (feb12)

12. We’re a month out from the trade deadline, and after having looked into who was on the block for each team as part of the Midseason Guide and then after that reading Puneet’s Top-10 article on Monday covering 10 names who could see a fantasy boost with a trade, it feels like now is about the right time to look at some situational changes that we might see at the trade deadline. This won’t be focused on individual names so much as those two links above were, but on what teams are likely to make certain moves, and the impending impact those could have.

As an example, we’ll take the New York Islanders, who seem like they’re very likely to be sellers. They’re in a position to move out a few different forwards, including but not limited to UFAs Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri and Matt Martin up front, while the recent bunch of cheap defencemen added means that as the team gets healthy they will have some flexibility on who they want to shop on the back end too. At the deadline, you can always get inflated returns for decent defencemen.

All that to say, the goalies might have a tough time in the stretch run for the Isles, while some of the third/fourth line forwards like Pierre Engvall and Simon Holmstrom could be in line for a bump. (feb12)

13. That same idea goes for other teams like Seattle (who also has the most difficult strength of schedule remaining this season), Utah, and St. Louis.

Seattle in particular might be interesting, as they have a lot of options to sell off forwards, and that could provide some incentive to shovel extra ice time onto the remaining players, boosting their scoring just by heaping on volume. (feb12)

14. San Jose still has a bunch of players primed to exit as well, and while they don’t seem to be the same level of tire fire this year as last year where a ten-goal-game-against seemed to pop up every second week, it’s hard to trust the goalies. But the exodus at the deadline, like a wildfire, does provide some new breathing room for the greener pieces to grow. Fabian Zetterlund for example was seeing two minutes per game on the power play and 18 minutes overall in Q1, and scored 17 points in those 25 games. In Q3 however, he’s down to one minute of power play time, 15 minutes overall, and only has five points in 12 games to show for it. Will Smith has seen his production grow as his ice time has gone up since the start of the campaign, and that should continue. Macklin Celebrini and William Eklund were both seeing 20 minutes per game in Q1, and should be back to that in Q4.

At this point Jake Walman‘s numbers seem to have normalized as well. He shouldn’t be a 60-point player like he was in Q1, and he’s also not as bad as his most recent stretch of three points in 12 Q3 games. (feb12)

15. Now that we have looked at the sellers, there are also quite a few teams looking to buy who I feel will be interesting to watch.

Minnesota has to be thinking that they have a unique window this year to take advantage of with Kirill Kaprizov at the level he is, Brock Faber and Marco Rossi still on their ELCs, a 35-year-old Jared Spurgeon, and 40-year-old Marc-Andre Fleury as one of three capable backstops.

They have some interesting options for adding talent, and with their wide-open cap situation next year thanks to the rising cap on top of the Parise/Suter buyouts reducing in value, they can make moves and ask questions (or for forgiveness) later. As part of bringing in players, I wonder if we see a reduction in the role of 37-year-old Mats Zuccarello (on a pointless streak of five games). He might be one to sell while there’s still the illusion of gas in the tank. (feb12)

16. The Florida Panthers have such a clear need at right-defence, that it will be shocking if they don’t address it. Whoever gets to jump onto the Panthers, and possibly get a slice of the powerplay pie, is going to see a big spike in value. The question then becomes, who will they get? It’s a bit of a fruitless guessing game, but I’ll try anyway. The pipe-dream would be Noah Dobson, though where they probably settle is Connor Murphy and/or Luke Schenn.

And I’m really curious to see how much of the future the Capitals sell off for this year’s surprise run while Alex Ovechkin is still chugging along. As much as they have been a high-scoring team thus far, they really could use another offensive difference-maker, also without breaking the bank. I don’t expect them to shake things up much though. (feb12)

17. Here are a few players that might be flying under the radar despite being on hot streaks entering the break: 

Bowen Byram had a couple great games amounting to five points in three games. He's never going to be the top dog with Rasmus Dahlin around, but Buffalo should have enough fire power to keep their three top defencemen afloat. 

Vladislav Namestnikov had six points in four games before the break, playing on the second line with Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti. His production dipped for a while while he was down the lineup, but it's back up now, and he's even finally adding a respectable shot volume. 

Josh Doan is finally looking more comfortable since his recall around the New Year, and ironically enough, is finally producing after his power play time was cut three games ago. He had four points in that stretch, and could see even more minutes through to the end of the year. 

Gage Goncalves is on a hot run since being recalled from his AHL stint. He has recently been playing in the top-six and has made the most of it with five points in six games. It may not last but it's a solid streak to jump on in the meantime. (feb12)

18. Let's take a look back at the season to date as we gear up for runs at a fantasy hockey championship.

Back in the summer, I looked at changes in peripheral stats like shots, hits, and blocks. The big note is that the 2023-24 season saw a huge increase in shot blocking while also seeing a decline in hits. A few weeks into this season, I looked at some of the same stuff, and there was an ever further increase in blocks per minute and an even further decline by hits per minute. Defencemen were also taking a higher share of the shots than they had in the last few years. Since we haven’t done an update since, it is worth reviewing all that again. (feb11)

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19. An upper-body injury caused Connor Ingram to leave Utah's last game before the 4 Nations tournament clash. It seems he got hurt after taking a heavy shot up high. Karel Vejmelka was excellent in relief, stopping 30 of the 32 shots he faced en route to a shootout victory. Vejmelka has solid numbers on the season but has struggled of late, with Ingram outperforming him in 2025. Some time to rest during the Four Nations Face Off break should help Ingram return to full health before the regular season resumes, allowing him to play a prominent role down the stretch. (feb10)

20. After an amazing first four starts in the NHL, Jakub Dobes‘ inexperience has been more evident lately. He’s posted a save percentage below .890 in four of his last five starts before the 4 Nations break.

Still with the Habs: After posting a promising 56-point pace last year, Alex Newhook‘s 26-point pace this year has been incredibly disappointing, especially after sustained stretches in a top six role. He’s finally showing signs of life lately, with five points in his last five games. Considering he’s 24 with only 270 games under his belt, it’s fair to expect that his best is yet to come. (feb10)

21. Players to add and drop for this year’s fantasy playoffs: Since different fantasy leagues have different playoff schedules, I chose to focus on the final month of the regular season (March 17^th to April 17^th) as it should encompass important weeks for most formats, but I encourage you to use Dobber’s Schedule Planner if you have a different period of interest!

Players to Add:

Mackenzie Blackwood

Since joining the Avs two months ago, Blackwood ranks second in the league with 15.2 goals saved above expected (via Evolving Hockey). He also ranks second in wins with a sparkling 14-6-2 record during this stretch. Colorado’s opponents over the final month of the season are currently averaging 2.84 goals per game – which is the lowest average of any team’s opponents in the final month. A good goalie, on a great team, facing weak offenses during the most crucial stretch of your fantasy season? Sounds like a recipe for success.

Mats Zuccarello

Entering the break on a five-game point drought, now is a great time to trade for Zuccarello as you’d likely be paying a discounted rate. The Wild have a league-leading nine games on light nights during the final month of the campaign, so you wouldn’t face as many scheduling conflicts that would otherwise cause you to bench players unnecessarily. While there’s no concrete timetable for superstar Kirill Kaprizov‘s return, there’s hope he’ll be back before the end of the regular season. Since Zuccarello and Kaprizov often share the ice at both even strength and on the power play, Kaprizov’s return could reinvigorate Zucc just in time for the fantasy playoffs. (feb10)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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