Brad Marchand‘s week-to-week diagnosis looks like the final nail in the coffin for the Bruins, and it also means a trade for him is highly unlikely. There’s some uncertainty to whether he will be back this season, and the Bruins would be foolish to rush him back for meaningless games.
Georgii Merkulov has taken Marchand’s place in the lineup for now, though he’s a longshot to be fantasy relevant, which really brings down the fantasy value of Marchand’s linemates Elias Lindholm and Charlie Coyle.
The Bruins also seem to agree that they aren’t making the playoffs, and took their first step as sellers by moving Trent Frederic to Edmonton and getting a 2nd as the main piece of the return. This is likely a hit to Frederic’s usage and minutes.
New Jersey was the third team and money broker on this one, and the fact they took on money while Jack Hughes goes for a second opinion on his injury is not a good sign. My bet is we don’t see him again in the regular season.
Looking to the Hughes on the West Coast, we may have a situation with Quinn Hughes too. Keep an eye out for tomorrow’s Injury Ward where any updates would be included.
Tyler Myers was on PP1 in his place.
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It's easy to get ahead of ourselves in trying to project trades and impacts around the Deadline, so I won't make an effort to project anything for fantasy purposes. What I will outline is making sure we have our expectations set on a few points:
-Players are going to be sat, and they might or might not get traded. Don't overreact, just be ready to work around them. Occasionally the service providers will make those players IR eligible, but not always.
-Sometimes when a player goes from a US team to a Canadian team (or vice versa) they end up stuck with visa delays. It happened with Andrei Kuzmenko and Jakob Pelletier young to the Flyers, and they missed multiple games as a result. A bit more of a risk for the players on Canadian teams, but not much you can do about it.
-Trying not to over-expect or over-react can be difficult this time of year. You hear a name in the rumour mill often enough and you eventually start to believe that it’s a certainty that they get moved, when in reality there are usually less than a handful that are a sure thing. Try not to get ahead of yourself, with players that might not get traded, or in dreaming up best case scenarios with lines as soon as someone is traded. For example, Frederic isn’t going to end up alongside Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, expect him on line three with Adam Henrique.
-Generally, just prepare to be disappointed.
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On the topic of Kuzmenko and one of the players he was traded for in Morgan Frost, both hit the scoresheet against their former teams, Kuz with a goal and Frost with a pair of apples. There's nothing like a revenge game to bring the best out of someone.
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Steven Stamkos scored his first goal (and point) since Jan 23rd last night, inching a goal, two assists, two PIMs and three shots. It feels too early in his career to completely write him off, but the point-per-game days are over.
Having some pressure off could be good for more than a few Predators.
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Another three points for Roope Hintz, which brings him to 14 in his last five games. Jason Robertson (10 points in five) and Wyatt Johnston (13 in six) also kept hot streaks alive against the Devils in the battle of my pre-season Cup Final picks.
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William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini, and Will Smith were a line for a very short but very fun time last game, and I would like to see more of it. All three youngsters scored last night, and while the present is dreary in San Jose, the bright future is nearly upon them.
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In what might end up being a precursor to a trade deadline move now, the young Ducks lit up Calvin Pickard with four goals on 10 shots in the first period. Stuart Skinner hasn't been much better of late, which makes you think that a goalie might still be on the wish list. Could Edmonton find a way to make the cap and assets work for one of Petr Mrazek, Joey Daccord, or Jordan Binnington? And would any of them be a worthwhile upgrade on Skinner?
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Ryan Hartman returned yesterday from his 10-game suspension that was recently shortened to eight games. Minnesota could certainly use him going at full speed while they deal with injuries and poor play.
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Rick Roos is looking for a few more mailbag questions to be answered in next week’s article. To get your questions to him, private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or email admin@dobbersports.com with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line. No one does a deeper dive on your questions than Rick, and now is the time to get those keeper and draft questions in before it’s too late.
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On Monday Charlie Lindgren signed a three-year extension with the Capitals for $3 million per season. This gives the Caps a lot of cap certainty on their core heading into next year, with only Jakob Chychrun as another important piece. I wonder if we see an extension there before the end of the month, something around an eight-year by $8.5 million cap hit.
Yesterday we saw two more savvy extensions, this time to bottom-six players. Jake Evans re-upped in Montreal for four more years at less than $3 million per season. With how important Evans has been to the team, this feels like a bargain.
Jesper Boqvist was the other one, signing a two-year extension with the Panthers for $1.5 million a season. The elder Boqvist, has 22 points and 136 hits so far this season.
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Chris Driedger becomes worth a look as a streaming goalie between now and the end of the season, as Florida is a good bet to win any game, regardless of goalie or opponent. Driedger has been good but not great this year in the AHL, but has had hot stretches both in the AHL and NHL in recent years.
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There was a topic on the forum where a few people were debating a few lists of goalies who have the most fantasy value over the next five years. There were some varied opinions, and that's expected with goalies. It's hardest with them, as they're not only rated based on talent, but the team in front of them as well. If you want to project goalies, you need to look at talent, the team in front of them, and how they're trending based on age and other factors.
For the team to be a big factor, they need to be young enough, have the star power locked in, and have a good set of management to know that a steady hand is being kept on the wheel. To me, and despite not having a superstar on the roster, the Dallas Stars feel like they have the optimal setup to project as a top team for the next five years. That bodes well for Jake Oettinger, who has had some ups and downs, but has generally been a very good fantasy goalie over the last couple of years. Plus he's only 26.
To round out my top-five goalies for the next five years:
Igor Shesterkin (29): He's a top goalie on a team that wants to win, they'll figure it out.
Connor Hellebuyck (31): I've been skeptical of him in the past with his prior history of one bad year followed by one good year, but there's three straight seasons of elite play now.
Ilya Sorokin (29): Maybe the most talented goalie in the league, the team in front of him is the question.
Pyotr Kochetkov (25): The Canes are perennially talented and support their goalies well. Koch is going to be hugely valuable once he starts seeing the majority of starts and matures a bit more.
If that basically looks like a list of the best goalies right now, well that's because it mostly is, as those guys are the best now, will be the best in 2-3 years, and will still be decent after that. Compare that to trying to guess with someone like Spencer Knight or Dustin Wolf, and they might be good next year, they might be good they year after, they should probably be good further out than that, but we don't know what their teams will look like, how they'll handle a starter's workload, etc. Overall, keep it simple and stop trying to find the best guy for three years from now when often it's still the guy who is best now.
A few other names who I considered for that top-five list:
Andrei Vasilevskiy: The last cut, due to a combination of age, wear, and the team in front of him looking like a franchise that has been winning for so long that the foundation is wearing thin. The older stars, the lack of depth and prospects, and the quantity of games on the core over the last decade takes a toll on a goalie. On top of that, Vas has been inconsistent the last few years, so there is worry that he won't be as reliable over the next few.
Filip Gustavsson: I heavily considered him in place of Kochetkov, but the presence of Jesper Wallstedt and the possibility of Kirill Kaprizov leaving in another year or so, leaving the Wild in a state of flux just as Gus will be entering his prime is a bit of a question mark.
Logan Thompson: I'm a Thompson believer, and I think he's going to be a great fantasy own, but I'm not quite ready to put him and the high-flying Capitals into that top-five. I think the bubble is going to pop on their season once Alex Ovechkin breaks the goal record.
Mackenzie Blackwood: He's fitting in well with the Avalanche, but he hasn't really stolen games yet, which is the difference between being a top-five goalie, and a good goalie on a playoff team.
Jeremy Swayman: On the flip side we have Swayman who should be a great goalie, but he's having a bad year on a team that is having an even worse year. Nothing is going right in Boston right now, and while Swayman should still be valuable to own over the next five years, the ceiling looks lower because of the team situation in front of him.
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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky here, as that's now my primary platform.