Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I will be examining shots. I will highlight some players that have really upped their shots of late. These players may be on your waiver wire and can add to your shots category and in turn likely add some offense. We'll examine shot attempts, sometimes represented as individual Corsi For (iCF) – when a player shoots the puck toward the net, whether it hits it, misses, or gets blocked and shots on goal (SOG) – when a player’s shot attempt hits the net (but not the post).

At this point in the season, per 60 rates are less useful than per game stats. Players have pretty much solidified their spots in the lineup by now. There won't be many changes in ice time from here on out. I'll also look at some percentages. If a player hovers around hitting the net on 50% of his shot attempts and he is hitting the net on only 40% of his attempts, we can reasonably expect his shot on goal numbers to rise as this number regresses toward his norm. These would be players who are underperforming in shots on goal and likely in all offensive categories.

Before diving into players that may actually be available in your leagues, I want to first touch on the shot leader race between Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, and Brady Tkachuk. The SOG crown is very much up for grabs. After averaging just 3.75 SOG per game in the first half of the season, MacKinnon has upped his SOG rate to 4.5 per game in the last 20 games. Tkachuk has a similar story upping his rate to 4.4 per game from 3.9 in the first half. Pastrnak has been steadier, moving from 4.06 per game in the first half to 4.21 in his last 20 games. This will be a fun battle to watch as these shooters keep chucking the puck toward the net (especially if you have one of those season-long props hanging in the balance).

The stats mentioned do not include this Sunday night's games.

Dylan Guenther – 69% rostered

Guenther averaged 2.5 SOG per game in the first half of the season before missing some time with an injury. Since his return, he has been a completely different player, averaging 4.64 SOG per game, good for a league lead. He's had a much bigger role on the team, especially on the power play, where he is averaging almost four minutes a night on the first unit. This has resulted in some great goal and power-play point coverage alongside his shots. He's also leading the league in shot attempts in this span, hitting the net on 51% of them, a sustainable percentage. In his last five games alone, he has a league-leading 55 shot attempts. Guenther is likely owned in your league, but if not, consider him as valuable as Alex Ovechkin, Matt Boldy, and Alex Debrincat – all 90+% rostered.

Macklin Celebrini – 62% rostered

Another player rostered in the 60% range (don't worry managers in savvy leagues, keep reading for the low-rostership players below), Celebrini should be rostered in more leagues. He has also upped his shooting rates of late. In the first half of the season, he averaged 3.3 SOG per game. Since returning from the 4 Nations break, Celebrini is second in the league with 46 SOG in his last 11 games (4.2 per game). He has found a groove with Will Smith, William Eklund, and Tyler Toffoli and the Sharks are actually an exciting team to watch again. As some teams in comfortable playoff positions may be coasting their way to the end of the season, the Sharks can pull off some upsets in our fantasy playoffs. Count on Celebrini to lead the way and be as valuable as players mentioned earlier (Ovechkin, Debrincat, Boldy).

Matvei Michkov – 48% rostered

Another rookie that is under-rostered has really upped his shooting. Again, if you're in a savvy or deep league where all these guys are rostered, I got a super low-owned player for you below! Michkov has no points in his last four games and may have been dropped in your league. Pick him up now! He is top 5 in the league in SOG/60 since returning from the 4 Nations break, averaging 3.73 SOG per game. He has a low shooting percentage of 8% in that time, indicating some goals to come soon.

The only issue with Michkov is his coach. John Tortorella holds his players accountable and doesn't like to give players tons of ice time even if they're insanely talented. This is why I point to Michkov's per 60 numbers. If Torts and management want to see more of their future superstar, Michkov could get more ice time as the season winds down. If this were to occur, his SOG numbers should shoot up past four per game. I would be valuing Michkov similarly to higher owned guys like Nazem Kadri and Timo Meier.

Alexei Toropchenko – 1% rostered

Alright, here's your player for the deep and savvy leagues! Toropchenko has taken a step forward offensively of late. In his last six games, he's averaging 3.33 SOG per game. He's also grabbed five points and 17 Hits in that span. He's doing this all at even strength with limited ice time, which may not change. However, his coach may let him onto the second power play unit if he continues his torrid play. This is more of a speculative add (as are all players in the 1% range), but it could pay off greatly if he keeps things up.

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

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