With the 2024-25 regular season in the books, it's time for me to do what I always do every year, and that's revisit my Fearless Forecasts that I made right before the puck dropped on game 1. The good news is there was only one way for me to go, and that was up, considering a grand total of zero of my 15 (yes, 15!) Fearless Forecasts for 2023-24 came true, although there were a few near misses. How did I fare for 2024-25? Soon, but first a bit about why I always review my Forecasts.

Beyond just going over the outcomes, I point out lessons that can be learned from why I was right, wrong, or, although wrong, on the right track. I give myself grades as if I was back in school, with an A being reserved for those I nailed, and an F for ones that were not even close. Not every one that I got wrong netted me an F though, for reasons I'll explain/justify. I'll also look at how you fared in your predictions in the poll that accompanied the column.

Lastly, at the risk of trying to make myself look good, or less bad, I do want to emphasize that these are termed Fearless Forecasts for a reason, as I swung for the fences with each one. That means getting even a few correct is pretty decent, although of course the more the better. But enough already – let's dive in!

Forecast #1 – Anze Kopitar will produce at or below a 55-point scoring pace

Outcome = He finished with a 68-point pace 

Grade = D+, because his pace was exactly 55 in the second half

Lesson Learned = Kopitar is still talented, but age catches up to even the best of the best

This one was doomed from the start, as Kopitar stormed out of the gates with 27 points in his first 23 games. From there though, he sputtered, tallying only 40 points in his final 61 games, and just 27 in his final 40. And looking at the 2023-24 season, he didn't start as strong, but there too he stalled in the second half.

We also can't ignore that Kopitar saw his TOI, both overall and on the PP, drop. His SOG rate was a mere 1.2 for the season. In the second half it was even worse, with 44 in those 40 contests. The low SOG rate does somewhat excuse his 21.6% SH%, but no question that was too high, even for him now being a very selective shooter. It's clear that Kopitar is slowing, becoming a riskier own with each passing season, or at least a risky player to hold through the second half. He likely will remain a focal point because of his track record, contract, and Quinton Byfield not ready to step up as a true #1 center, at least as yet.

This was Kopitar's age 37 season, although one could argue his hockey age is more than his real age in view of his track record of good health and LA having made several deep playoff runs in his career. In fact, Kopitar's career playoff games added up to more than a full regular season! But consider that of the 38 instances, dating back to 2000-01, of a center age 38 or older playing 70+ games, just 11 managed to produce at a 50 point pace, and the only ones to do so with a SOG rate under 1.6 per game were Adam Oates and Joe Thornton; and no disrespect to Kopitar, but they were top-tier scorers for many years, whereas Kopitar was solid but unspectacular. Long story short, age matters, and betting against age-related regression from even a player as solid as Kopitar eventually becomes a losing endeavor.

Forecast #2 – Victor Olofsson will score 30+ goals if he plays 75+ games

Outcome = Olofsson had 15 goals in 56 games

Grade = C-, because he started the season with three goals in four games, but then missed over a month and never was able to reclaim his "spot"

Lessons Learned = Players without a big contract or proven track record have a short leash

Unlike the Kopitar forecast, I was grinning ear to ear when I saw that "Goalofsson" had three tallies in his first four contests, seeing heaps of PP time and playing alongside his former Buffalo running buddy Jack Eichel. But then Olofsson missed more than a month, during which time other players made their marks and he was unable to force Vegas' hand upon returning.

I do feel that the recipe for success for Olofsson was there, as the red carpet was rolled out for him. But once he was out of the picture for a big chunk of games, the team regrouped, and he did not get nearly as opportune deployment, which was not surprising in view of Olofsson only being paid $1.1M this season, and Ivan Barbahsev (who's being paid $5.0M per season and inked for three more) seizing the opportunity of Olofsson's absence to solidify his spot on the top line at ES, while the younger Pavel Doroferev and Brett Howden yanked the PP rug out from under Olofsson for good.

Could Olofsson have played his way back into a top spot? Theoretically, as he was still getting over 2:00 on the PP upon his return. But as I noted that didn't last long, and by the second half he was seeing PP scraps and not even taking the ice for 15 minutes a game overall.

I still think poolies should not be afraid to seize upon a situation, like this, which had the makings of an under the radar success. The caveat though is if/when that success doesn't occur out of the gate, it is wise to cut bait, especially if the team is not beholden to the player for a huge chunk of money, nor does the player factor into its future plans.

Forecast #3 – If Alexis Lafreniere does not average at least 3:00 per game on the PP, he will have a lower scoring rate for 2024-25 than he did for 2023-24

Outcome – Laffy averaged 1:34 on the PP, up from 1:17 in 2023-24, but his scoring rate dropped from 57 in 2023-24 to 45 in 204-25

Grade – A

Lessons Learned – PP time is vitally important; just because a player was a top draft pick doesn't mean he will eventually blossom; be leery of players who see a jump in scoring when playing alongside very talented other players; beware of hype in the post-COVID era

Yay – time to exhale, since unlike last season I got at least one right! Although I realize this one may seem obvious now, keep in mind Laffy had 18 points in his last 20 games in 2023-24 and, on average, was being drafted in the top 100 in Yahoo leagues. People definitely expected him to continue seeing scoring gains. To me, there were red flags everywhere.

For one, I feel him being a former #1 pick made people want to think he was amounting to something. And we are of course in the post-COVID landscape, where prospects, especially ones picked early, let alone first overall, are getting hyped far more than in the pre-COVID times. I'd say that Laffy is the posterchild, at least for now (cough cough……Connor Bedard?…..cough cough).

The other key was he ignited last season when placed alongside not only Artemi Panarin, who has made a career of getting the best out of his linemates; plus the third member of their line, Vincent Trocheck, was on the third year of his remarkably consistent pattern of two not so great years, followed by a great one. Fast forward to 2024-25, and Trocheck came back to earth as I'd have expected, and even Panarin, with his as usual superb IPPs, couldn't score anywhere near his normal pace. Without a rising tide to lift his boat, Laffy failed to produce. And it wasn't due to the team not giving him chances, as in the first half he had more TOI than ever, and in Q2 even saw over 2:00 of PP time per game.

To those who pay attention to the stats, this was not a huge surprise, as Laffy had never sported very good IPPs; and other than last season, he never had averaged two SOG per game. And his inability to play himself onto PP1 for good certainly hurt him, as he somehow had 50% fewer PPPts despite more PP time per game.

Can Laffy still become a good NHL player? He is only 23, and seems like he should still command a spot in the top-six. Plus, there will be a new coach in the Big Apple, and perhaps he will manage to get the best out of Laffy. For now though, he's a cautionary tale for all these lessons learned.

Forecast # 4 – Timo Meier will produce at a 90+ point scoring pace

Result – he produced at just a 53 point pace

Grade – F

Lessons Learned – One quarter does not normally mark a career turning point for a player who has been around as long as Meier; when a player is put into a situation that does not align with their strengths, the results likely will be disappointing

I made this prediction not just based on Meier's 23 points in 20 Q4 games in 2023-24, while upping his SOG rate to 3.5, or much closer to the 4+ per game he'd put up the prior two seasons before coming to the Devils, but also since it was the first time he was slotted alongside Nice Hischier at ES, plus was a PP1 staple. Yet Meier stayed glued to Hischier for all of 2024-25, and the results were subpar. But why?

I see Meier as a square peg trying to fit into the round hole that is New Jersey's offense. Meier is a guy who wants to shoot, and shoot a lot. But in New Jersey, either he plays with Jack Hughes, who is a shoot first center, or Hischier, who is a two-way player. If he's not shooting a ton, it's not clear he has it in him to produce well, having never even sported a 70+ point scoring rate in any season where he didn't have over four SOG per game, plus in one of the two seasons where he averaged over four per contest, he still only managed a 69-point scoring rate.

The other thing is that Meier entered the season at age 28 and a veteran of seven full NHL seasons. To expect him to not only rise to a career best, but to blow past his one prior season over a 70 point pace, was not an objectively smart prediction. Who was the last player to explode at such a late age? I struggle to think of one, and likely should have taken the time to stop and consider that before I made this, in hindsight, objectively bad prediction.

Forecast #5 – At least one of Elias Pettersson or J.T. Miller will double Jake DeBrusk's scoring rate

Result – DeBrusk scored at a 48-point rate, while Pettersson's was only 58 and Miller's 80, although once Miller got to New York he had 33 points in 32 games, including 19 in his last 12 games

Grade – C+, as DeBrusk certainly did not do great, and Miller likely would've had a realistic chance to double his rate had he been with the Rangers all season

Lessons Learned – With some players, it's going to be a "same leopard, same spots" situation; if there are two big egos on a team, it can hurt them both, as can just playing the same position

In DeBrusk, I saw a player who had one pretty decent, albeit shortened, season, but otherwise seemed to be no better than a 40-50 point player. Lo and behold, even after inking a sizeable deal with the Canucks and seeing his highest percentage of PP time in his career, he saw no gains in overall TOI nor in SOG per game, and in fact saw his SOG rate slide for the second straight season. It goes to show that in most cases when a player is what he seems to be, even a big contract on a new team won't cure that.

Like Meier, DeBrusk was 28 years old, so it would be difficult to see him finding another gear. Let's also not forget that in his best season, when his scoring rate was 64, he was a top-line staple for the Bs, and saw the most time with the super talented Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. In other words, if they could not find a way to get DeBrusk to excel, it would be difficult to envision it two seasons later and with no guarantee of being tethered to great players all season long.

As for Pettersson and Miller, their inability to coexist torpedoed both their seasons. It is rare that egos or squabbles can rise to the level that one basically has to leave town; however, if that is unfolding, it is wise to count on both doing worse than normal until it is resolved. Although Pettersson did not go back to his 100-point ways, by the end of the season Miller was firing on all cylinders. Something else to realize is that one of Miller and Pettersson scored at a 100 point pace in each of the prior three seasons, but never both. If there are two players on the same team who play the same position, counting on them to both thrive in the same season is likely a stretch. Sure – it can happen in rare cases like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for the Pens as an example; but far more often than not if one player excels then another at the same position will not come close to putting up the same caliber numbers.

Forecast #6 – However many wins Ottawa gets, Linus Ullmark will have no more than half of them

Result – Ottawa had 45 wins, with Ullmark getting 25 of them

Grade – C, since Ullmark tallied 12 of his 25 wins in just 15 starts in Q4, and without stats that were very good, indicating he was helped considerably by his team

Lessons Learned – Even if a goalie is anointed, and paid, as a #1, that is not set in stone; if a goalie has failed to ever log a lot of games, don't look for that to suddenly change.

Avid readers of my column know that a term I often use is "a rising tide lifts all boats," which, in the context of fantasy hockey, means that a player sees a benefit based on factors either unrelated to or separate from what he himself did. Heck – I used it above about Laffy! Well, Ullmark's boat certainly seemed to rise due to the play of the Sens down the home stretch, as Ullmark was credited with 12 wins in 15 games despite only six of those games representing quality starts, and three being Really Bad Starts. It's also looking more and more like Ullmark's boat rose when he was on the Bs as well.

Looking more closely at Ullmark's numbers, he was a mediocre goalie, with over 20% of his starts being Really Bad Starts. His SV% and GAA were the worst in six seasons, and he didn't manage to even play in 50 games, a mark he's still yet to reach in his career. And speaking of SV%, his ES SV% was worst among Ottawa goalies, behind not only upstart Leevi Merilainen, but even Anton Forsberg. While Ullmark had an impressive .950+ SV% in 12 of his 45 games, he had a nearly equal number of starts, namely 10, with a SV% under .850. In short, he was feast or famine, and that was without him having to play like a true workhorse.

Make no mistake – Ottawa wants Ullmark to succeed given what they're paying him and the duration of his about to kick in agreement. But is he what I'd refer to as a cemented #1? Probably, but I'm not entirely sold. In today's NHL, there are a very select few who can lay claim to having that title, and they are proven workhorses, unlike the yet to ever play 50 games Ullmark.

When it comes time to bet on a goalie to grab for your fantasy team, use Ullmark as an example of a cautionary tale. On paper, he has lure, with a Vezina trophy and other seasons with stellar stats. But he has never once shown himself to be capable of playing 55, let alone 60+ games; and were it not for the superb play of the Sens down the stretch, he'd not have earned half their wins.

Forecast #7 – If Moritz Seider has an OZ% above 45% and gets a 55%+ share of Detroit's PP minutes, he'll score at a 65+ point pace

Result – Seider's scoring rate only inched upward from 42 to 46, despite his OZ% rising to 44.8% and his usage on the PP being 64.2%

Grade – D-

Lessons Learned – Some players either don't live up to expectations, or it takes them longer to do so; be careful not to fall into the trap of unrealistically overvaluing players; look to the most meaningful metrics to assess a player's potential

Technically Seider didn't meet both criteria I set, but he fell short by a razor thin margin, while only seeing his scoring rate increase by the slightest of amounts. Thus, I get a D- instead of an F. On the plus side, he shot the puck more and he translated his added PP time into more PPPts, suggesting there is still room for improvement. But will he ever get to where most thought he would? Maybe not.

That's because his metrics are…..quite lousy. Admittedly his 5×5 team SH% was 8.0%, a career low. But only once had it been above 8.7%, so it might not have cost him many points. Meanwhile his secondary assist rate was 63.2%, a career high, signifying any points he likely lost to his 5×5 team SH% being too low were offset by points he likely should not have received due to a higher than normal secondary assist rate. As for IPPs, they remain weak. More PP time led to his PP IPP actually dropping, and his IPP overall has still yet to be above 40%, which is certainly a concern since if you do the math even a merely "average" d-man should have a 40% IPP. Although Seider still is below his 400-game breakout threshold, not having seen him even once exceed 40% IPP overall just might signify that he is not cut from a scorer's cloth.

But I was far from alone in expecting better things from Seider in 2024-25. After all, he was a former rookie of the year, and gone was Shayne Gostisbehere, who had to have sheltered minutes and was a PP specialist. But Seider got the vacated PP time, yet still did not thrive, as he simply did not find a way to factor into the scoring enough. Will he live up to the hype? That remains to be seen, although every season that he doesn't makes the chances less. With players like Seider, hope for the best, but expect what should be realistically expected.

Forecast #8 – If he plays 75+ games, Zach Werenski will lead Columbus in scoring by at least 15 points

Result – Weresnki had 82 points in 81 games, for a jump in scoring pace from 67, and which would have easily led the team in scoring by 15 points last season, but only led by eight for 2024-25

Grade – B

Lessons Learned – When enough data is suggesting a player has another gear, he just might; and if a defensemen is a true "the guy" in terms of deployment, it makes a huge difference; don't assume that forwards won't step up if key players are lost

No, I didn't get this correct, but I was certainly right to peg Werenski for even greater things. Were it not for the Blue Jacket forwards scoring better despite no Johnny Gaudreau or Patrik Laine, then I'd have gotten it right.

But that brings up a key point, which is the absence of those two, on whom the Columbus offense had been heavily dependent, not only meant larger roles for others, but impressed upon them that they had to step up. Sometimes that is all it takes, especially for players in the age ranges of those who set career bests among Blue Jacket forwards this season.

Getting back to Werenski, how'd I see it coming? Werenski had 20 of his 57 points in his last 21 games, with 71 SOG and six PPPts. Also, in the 12 games that Werenski missed, the Blue Jackets scored 33 goals, for an average of 2.75 goals per game, or lower than their 2.85 goals per game season-long average, already showing that Werenski adds offense to their team. He also hit a bunch of posts and crossbars, plus had strong IPPs, yet had fewer multipoint games that he should have, suggesting room for more explosive scoring. I go back to him having tallied 11+ goals in each of his first four seasons, and 58 in total, all by age 22, placing him in the exclusive company of Ray Bourque, Phil Housley, Larry Murphy, and Bobby Orr, each of whom was a point-per-gamer at least once in their career. I realize this was a past comparable that did not necessarily predict the future, but goals for d-men are tough to come by, and when you can pot that many in each of your first four seasons, and that likens you to such elite talent, chances are you will be elite at some point too, and sure enough Werenski now is.

Forecast #9 – Jacob Markstrom will have more wins, a lower GAA, and a higher SV% than Jake Oettinger

Result – Otter won 36 of 58 starts, with a GAA of 2.59 and SV% of .909; Markstrom won 26 of 49 starts, with a GAA of 2.50 and SV% of .900

Grade – C+, not only did Markstrom miss a chunk of time and then have to get back into a rhythm, but in the first half he had 21 wins in 33 games (versus 22 in 32 for Otter) but with a bit better SV% and GAA

Lessons Learned – A change of scenery can make a big difference for a goalie; the play of those in front of a goalie is often as, if not more, important than the skill set of the goalie himself

In Markstrom I saw a goalie who, when he had a superb team in front of him, had played very well, but whose team also had not done him favors in the last two seasons, placing him in a position where it would have been tough for nearly any goalie to succeed. Between that, and motivation to play well for a new team, I saw big things for Markstrom. Sure enough, he excelled in the first half. But between post-injury rust and the Devils losing Jack Hughes, the second half saw him struggle mightily.

Oettinger was coming off a 2023-24 where he'd seen his really bad starts rise, and high danger save percentage crater, plus his worst save percentages had come on one or two days rest, which is what's most typical for starters. And sure enough, in 2024-25, Otter had even more really bad starts and his SV% was shrinking as the season wore on, likely due to the absence of Miro Heiskanen.

In the end, it was the team that made the difference, with Dallas averaging 3.38 goals per game, versus not even three for New Jersey. Only 20.9% of the shots Oettinger faced were high danger, tied for second lowest in the league among goalies who played in at least half their teams' games, versus 23.1% for Markstrom, which put him in the bottom half. 

This serves to emphasize that when banking on a goalie, you're banking as much if not more so on the team in front of him. Yes, there are many goalies who are just bad, and would remain so even if put behind an all-star line-up. But for two goalies who, through the first half, had very similar stats, the one who ended up better was the one who not only didn't have to return from injury, but also had the higher caliber offense and defense to help bolster him.

Forecast #10 – Owen Tippett will be in the top 15 in goals per game

Result – Tippett went from 28 goals in 78 games, to 20 in 77, placing him far, far outside the top 15

Grade – D

Lessons Learned – Players without a track record of success will have a lot shorter leash; draft pedigree only gets you so far, especially on a new team; players can ease off the gas pedal after inking a deal

In Tippett, I saw a player who seemed to be just scratching the surface, with a SOG per 60 minutes rate that put him in fourth among all NHL forwards, behind only David Pastrnak, Auston Matthews, and Filip Forsberg. But I let that stat cloud my judgment, as Tippett didn't have any quarter where he posted big goal totals, which suggested he was a "chucker" rather than sniper.

There was also the reality that Tippett did not have a track record of success. Yes, 2023-24 marked the second straight season where Tippett bested a 50 point scoring pace; however, other than in the SOG area he didn't really make strides. What's more, his TOI went down from 2022-23 to 2023-24, which should have opened my eyes to the reality that John Tortorella was not enamored with Tippett's play despite his high SOG total. Sure enough, Tippett played less in 2024-25, and, unlike 2023-24, mainly apart from Travis Konecny.

I also saw in Tippett a former tenth-overall pick entering year one of an eight-year deal paying him $6.2M per season. But John Tortorella is not one to decide deployment in view of draft position or even salary. Plus, Tippett not only was seven years removed from being a top-ten pick, but also had been tossed aside essentially by his original team. For certain one's draft position will buy them most if not all of their nine lives, but only if those lives occur in a certain time period, plus that matters less if the player has changed teams from the one which originally drafted him.

There was also the reality that Tippett, in doing what he did in 2023-24, had earned himself a deal that will pay him nearly $50M over the course of its eight years. He would be far from the first player who coasted once his wallet got a lot fatter.

Forecast # 11 – If Petr Mrazek plays 50+ games, he'll be in the top 10 in wins and/or the top five in SV%

Result – Mrazek played only 38 games, mostly due to awful numbers playing him nowhere near either of the qualifiers

Grade – F

Lessons Learned – Bad teams can sometimes actually make bad goalies seem better; don't buy into hype

One of the main bases for me making this prediction was my belief, based on who they signed and how great Connor Bedard was supposed to be, that Chicago would be vastly improved. Well, they weren't, and that is lesson one, namely to take a long look at a team before you figure it will improve, since if you do you might see the improvement, if it even occurs, might not be as consequential, or might not affect the area on which you focused. In this case, whether or not Chicago's offense might have gotten better likely would not have had a spillover effect of improving Mrazek.

That brings us to Bedard. I fell victim to the post-COVID hype train, figuring that Bedard had to be as good as advertised, and because of prior precedent of Connor McDavid making huge strides in his second NHL season. But Bedard was…..not great. In this day and age, any player who is getting hyped across the board is far more likely to disappoint than come close to meeting expectations. But the risk of hype from one player influencing the outlook of another is very much real, and just as risky.

Something else this hammered home to me is bad goalies sometimes can seem better because their team is worse. I know that sounds contradictory; however, if a team gives up a lot of shots, yes there is a chance for more goals, but also for a higher SV%, and, with that more quality starts and fewer really bad starts. As a comparison, a really good team might give up only 20 SOG per game, making it be a finer line between what is a quality and non-quality start versus a team that gives up 30+ per context.

Forecast # 12 – By the end of the season, Joonas Korpisalo will not be the Bruins' starter or back-up

Result – Korpisalo did remain the back-up for the Bs, and saw modest improvements in some stats

Grade – D, because the Bruins were so bad they didn't care if Korpisalo stuck around

Lesson Learned – When it's clear a team is not going to make the playoffs, they might be inclined to tinker with their skaters, but less so goalies, especially ones making more money

Going into 2024-25, the expectation was that the Bs would make the playoffs once again and that their new $8M goalie would only get better. Instead, Boston had a terrible season, with the only bright spots being the amazing second half for David Pastrnak and the seeming breakout of Morgan Geekie.

As for Korpisalo, he neither impressed nor disappointed. On a per game basis, his rate of really bad starts and quality starts were comparable to 2023-24. He even saw his GAA slide back below 3.00, although his SV% remained under .900. Would the Bs prefer to have him on the books for $4M for another three more seasons? Almost assuredly no; however, they were put in a predicament by needing to get rid of Linus Ullmark before it was too late, to clear the way to pay Swayman. So Korpisalo was the bitter pill they had to swallow.

Admittedly, he was far from the worst back-up in the league; however, if measured versus what he is being paid, his performance definitely fell short. But whereas their struggles enabled the Bs to try a lot of skater combinations, Korpisalo was too expensive to remove entirely from the equation, especially since although he was by no means great, he wasn't terrible either. Let's also not forget the fact that the Bs don't have a budding prospect who would assuredly be an upgrade over Korpisalo in general, but even more so when factoring in his salary.

If you're looking at whether a back-up is going to keep his job, salary matters. But so too does the performance of his team, with those who need a capable back-up likely being less inclined to tolerate one who is not doing them any favors, even if, in some cases, it would be a bitter pill to swallow by way of their expensive contract.

**********

The final tally was one correct prediction out of 12, although another five were not so "wrong" as to earn me a grade in the Ds or F. After last season going 0 for 15, I'll take it.

What about your votes? Did you seize upon the one I got right, and avoid those I completed bricked? The highest vote getters were for Seider, Markstrom, and Werenski, with the latter two, as noted, being ones that were among my "best" misses. The one I did get right, regarding Laffy, finished tied for sixth. The two where I gave myself an F got the fewest and tied for the third fewest votes, so you did do well in sniffing out where I'd definitely overstepped. I hope this was both fun but also informative, which is always the goal.

Questions for Mailbag 

My next monthly mailbag has room for a few more questions. To get your questions to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.