Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.
Question #1 (from Francis)
I’m in a 15 team roto keeper with rosters of 12F, 6D, 2G, plus 6 bench spots, with scoring for skaters being goals and assists = 1 point each, Hits and SOG = 0.05 points each. Each team can keep seven players, but no player can be kept longer than three years.
I managed to win 2 years ago and, as I write this, am currently in first again. But this came at a price, as I gutted my draft picks, with nothing before the tenth round for 2025 and no picks in the first four rounds in 2026. So I'm pretty much resigned to not competing for at least next season, and thus want to shape my keepers with that in mind. Here are my options – which seven would you recommend? All can be kept for three more seasons, other than Morrissey, who has one year left.
Josh Morrissey, Seth Jarvis, Troy Terry, Valeri Nichushkin, Jared McCann, Tom Wilson, Patrik Laine, Dmitri Voronkov, Boone Jenner, Seth Jones, John Carlson, Drew Daughty, Brandt Clarke, Jordan Bennington, Frederick Andersen.
Note that I realize this does not seem like the list for a first place team, but I'll be losing Connor McDavid, Mitch Marner, Cale Makar, Jesper Bratt, Jake Guentzel, Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele, Brady Tkachuk, and Matthew Tkachuk. So hopefully things make more sense now….lol.
In a 15 team league with seven kept per team, that means a total of 105. That number is important because it will tell you whether any of your players can be realistically traded, assuming that is allowed and routinely done in your league. Who might be tradeable? I'd say Wilson, whose production still has not fallen off a cliff but with each passing season that becomes more and more of a risk given the rough and tumble style he plays. Morrissey definitely would fetch a nice return too, even though he cannot be kept long. Carlson also could entice someone, although with Jakob Chychrun staying in Washington it might be difficult to find a taker in your league who is not worried about Carlson's staying power. Other than those, your players either are ones who would not be seen as keepable by others, or ones you want to keep for yourself.
Getting to your keepers, Jarvis, Voronkov, and Clarke are lay-ups. All three are poised to make a good impact within the three-year period they can be kept. I'd also strongly consider keeping both goalies, not with the intent of them being part of your long-term plans, but rather because with 15 teams and two goalies starting chances are there will be teams who need a netminder at some point, letting you swoop in and ransom off both. Binnington is a lock, as he's a proven #1 and seems to be improving as his career unfolds. I have trepidation about Andersen, as he is getting older and, with that, turning into even more of a Band-Aid Boy, which is saying a lot considering he was one even in his younger days. However, Carolina is bringing him back; and if he continues to play well when he does manage to play, he may be a good guy to keep, especially to possibly trade to whoever drafts Pyotr Kochetkov. He's probably a yes.
Looking at the others, McCann is a WYSIWYG player. Or at least he was; but the Kraken are bringing in a new coach and he might give McCann more ice time. He has shown he can produce. Terry went from two straight seasons of 71+ point scoring rate to two right below 60. I think he just does not have another gear; and although if the Ducks improve he figures to maybe get a "rising tide" boost, I'm not sure that's enough to hold him, especially since he's basically the same age as McCann.
Jones in Florida is very intriguing, although he hasn't exactly thrived. But he figures to get all the PP time he can handle, which, with Florida's offense in front of him, should pad his point total. He seems like a safe bet, as after all look what the likes of Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour did there. Nich and Laine are wild cards. Both are superbly talented and when in the zone have shown they can produce. But Laine didn't even get 15:00 of TOI per game this past season, while Nichushkin yet again missed a chunk of time and didn't even do as well as he had been when he played in the recent past. There is so much potential lure in both, but I'm letting them go as too risky.
To summarize, the plan is to shop Wilson, Morrissey and Carlson in the offseason. If the first two are unable to be traded, they should be kept and traded in the regular season, but not Carlson, as he'd be a drop. If the first two are traded though, then keep the two players you get in return. Binnington also ought to be kept, as there will be a need for him from teams looking to shore up goaltending. Jarvis, Voronkov and Clarke are "looking ahead" keeps. That leaves one spot for Jones, Terry, McCann, or Andersen. I'm inclined to go with Jones due to fewer options at defense and the home run potential that ought to exist in Florida, although I could see a case for the re-signed Andersen too. Good luck!
Question #2 (from Craig)
I'm in a Fantrax Cap (not NHL cap) roto league, with 9 teams and 8 keepers per team with 3 year keeper term limits except for 1 designated franchise player who can be kept indefinitely. Additionally, each team gets 3 separate minor eligible keepers, all of whom must have played no more than 164 career NHL games if a skater, or no more than 60 if a goalie.
There are 26 players on each team's roster, with 6 bench spots. Active line-ups consist of three forward units of three players each, but without any position requirement, two defensemen units of three players each, one powerplay unit with three skaters of any position, plus two goalies. Also, a team can only have three goalies on their roster, including in the minors and bench. It is important to put the right players on the right units. For example, the defensemen on the D1 unit get 1.22 points for a goal or assist, and 0.45 for +/-, whereas for the D2 unit each defensemen gets only 0.78 points per goal or assist, but 0.58 per PIM, and 1.11 for "defensive awareness" which is a combination of HIT, BLK and +/-. And not coincidentially, my two questions are both defenseman-related.
I just finished a rebuild season where I amassed a total of four first round and three second round picks. The top d-men who will be available at the draft are Victor Hedman, Rasmus Dahlin, Roman Josi, Adam Fox, and Josh Morrissey. This is relevant, as of my eight regular keepers, only two – Jake Sanderson and Miro Heiskanen – figure to be defensemen, with Sanderson going into year two and Heiskanen into year three. In fact, given his drop off and not being able to keep him after this season, I might not even keep Heiskanen.
I also have two too many minors-eligible keepers in Jackson LaCombe, Artyom Levshunov, Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium and Alexander Nikishin. And yes, I realize they are all defensemen.
I feel I’m ready to compete again, so I’m hoping to have some of my minors guys contributing right away. But I don’t mind waiting for the highest ceiling players, if need be. With that having been said, my thoughts on each are as follows. Nikishin should be an immediate impact player as a multi-cat monster best used for D2 as Ghost may continue to eat up the PP1 minutes in Carolina. I worry Lacombe may go full Brock Faber and drop off next year with Oren Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov ready to step into his PP1 role. And speaking of Faber, I see him as not providing an impediment to Buium, although of course Minnesota is now free to spend again so do they try to get someone more NHL-ready to be their offensive d-man? Levshunov feels ready to go but may face competition in the form of Kevin Korchinski and/or Alex Vlasic. Parekh could have the highest point total ceiling; and while he may be the most raw, having only played against OHL level competition, he may have the clearest path to the best deployment opportunity.
So one question is how would you rank the defensemen I listed who will be draftable? The other is which three of the five minors players would not keep, assuming whoever is not kept among them would not be keepable for me in a "regular" spot?
Looking at the regular d-men, I have Dahlin ranked first. He righted his ship big time in terms of scoring and also would be great for D2 given his monster HIT and BLK totals. Morrissey, though he still had a very solid season, has seen his scoring rate and PP time drop in each of the past two campaigns, and Neal Pionk just re-signed for a big chunk of change. It's also concerning that as Winnipeg thrived he fared worse. Josi is concerning to me, since as I have noted in recent columns even though he was one of just four defensemen in the last 30 years to have two point per game seasons from age 30 to 34, the others all saw marked declines, and that even includes Ray Bourque. Josi also has seen his SOG rate plummet, was never great in multicat, and was a huge minus this season, making him a big risk for D2. Hedman is the ageless wonder and always a safe bet to be plus. But he too is not strong in multicat, and at some point will slow. Fox seemingly did the best he could amid the trainwreck that was the Rangers this past season. He seems like a good fit D1, as he's never – even this season – not been a plus player, but like most others is not great in multicat. Given the three year holding term, I'd rank them Dahlin, then Fox barely over Hedman, followed by Morrissey and lastly Josi.
As for your minors defensemen, I think you hit the nail right on the head in terms of LaCombe. He was in the exact right place at the exact right time last season, much like Faber in 2023-24. Zellweger and Mintyukov seem like the golden boys, notwithstanding Minty's poor deployment this season and Zellweger not managing to get any real traction. Now, if Anaheim trades one of them away, then it becomes a different story, as it may provide a better chance for LaCombe to make a lasting mark. As it is, this will be his last minors eligible season, which would make him not ideal even if he was to have a better chance of remaining impactful.
The other cut is tougher. Buium, to me, seems safe. Let's remind ourselves that despite the Wild being finally able to spend freely, there are really no prize offensive d-men available this season as UFAs. Yes, there is the option of making a trade, or offer sheeting an RFA; however, I see those as unlikely. In turn, Buium ought to be able to make his mark; and if his past performance is any indication, he should do quite well. Nikishin I agree should be huge, and likely soon. I'm holding him. For the last spot I'm swinging for the fences with Parekh. Yes, it is tough to toss back a second overall pick in Levshunov, but I feel he might not be ready for prime time for quite a while, and in the end it's paths to success and deployment that matter the most, and I like Parekh and Buium better. Let LaCombe and Levshunov go. Also, keep Heiskanen. He's a golden boy, and Harley didn't go nuts while Miro was out. Good luck!
Question #3 (from Anthony)
I’m in a 12 team, keep 5 (max 1 goalie), H2H league, with scoring as follows: G(4), A(2), SHG(2), SHA(1), +/-(0.5), W(3), S(0.125), GA(-0.25), L(-2) and SO(3). Lineups consist of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2G, 5 bench and 2 IR+. No offseason trading is allowed, with the 8 playoff teams going into a lottery to pick 5th to 12th – all with equal odds.
I lost in the semifinals, and could use help determining my final keeper. I'm currently planning to keep Connor Hellebuyck, Brandon Hagel, and Matvei Michkov. Hellebuyck I have held since joining the league and Hagel was my best skater this year. Michkov has great potential; and even if I change my mind on him, he would have high trade value in my league. I'm not sure though who to choose as my fourth and fifth keepers between Elias Pettersson, Wyatt Johnston, Seth Jarvis, and Matt Boldy. I also have Marco Rossi, Dylan Strome, Brandon Montour, Evgeni Malkin, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but I feel they are all at least a notch or two below those four, plus the three I already plan to keep. I am leaning towards Pettersson and Johnston. But on the whole, the only player who I'm 100% locked into keeping is Hellebuyck, so your view will definitely help sway me.
I can't fault you for saying Hellebuyck is a must keep. On paper, that is entirely correct. What I worry about though is Winnipeg already has advanced to round two, meaning a first for Hellebuyck in having a truncated offseason. He is also about to turn 32, and has logged a lot of minutes for many seasons. That being said, I do feel like he is kind of a throwback to the Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist, Martin Brodeur, Mikka Kipprusoff goalies from the not too distant past, who played lots of hockey every year yet were able to remain elite well into their 30s. So yes, I'm on board with him as a must keep.
If ever there was a league with categories ideally suited to Hagel, this is it, as there is no PPPt category and that is Hagel's one glaring weakness. He's seen his SOG rate improve; and although I feel like it will be tough to count on him for three SHGs and seven SHAs every season, he is one who should get at least a few points on the PK each year. He strikes me as meriting a spot, although it is possible that I could be convinced otherwise. Unlikely, but possible. I'm not entirely sold on Michkov, although in the nine games he played after John Tortorella was fired, he had 12 points, and his upside is unquestionably very high, so I can certainly see the lure.
Looking at the last group, Strome is the name that stands out. He seems to only be getting better, but admittedly that came with a sky high OZ% which has nowhere to go but down. Still, with the Caps now a team with a lot of weapons, even if Alex Ovechkin slows Strome should have a strong supporting cast. I don't hate RNH, but we can now face the fact that his 2022-23 seasons was a huge outlier. In the end it would take a lot for me to promote one of them over the other choices, speaking of which….
That leaves EP40, Wyatt, Jarvis, and Boldy. Most certainly Pettersson looked like a shell of his former self; but as I noted in a recent column if you look at centers who, by age 24 and dating back to 2000-01 scored 100+ points while averaging at least 3.2 SOG per game in the same season, the list consists of just five others: Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Evgeni Malkin, and Eric Staal. Seeing Staal on the list is a concern, as he never again reached the heights he did that one season early in his career, mainly producing in the 70-75 point range. That said, he did have three more point per game or better seasons, which is pretty good. Yes, past results don't dictate future outcomes; but this is encouraging from where I sit. Plus, we have yet to see how EP40 plays for a full season without the two things that seemed to impede him, namely Rick Tocchet and J.T. Miller, both of whom are now gone. In short, I feel like Pettersson likely ought to be kept since the upside is so huge.
Johnston, despite playing for Dallas, which throttles the ice time of its forwards both at ES and on the PP, managed to pot 32+ goals while averaging 2.4+ SOG for the second time this past season, putting him in the company of Matthews, Crosby and Malkin as well, plus Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrick Laine, Alex Ovechkin, and Steven Stamkos, also dating back to 2000-01. The issue is, could Johnston be throttled indefinitely? Look at a player like Sebastian Aho in Carolina. Most feel if we were given the deployment that other top stars receive he'd have been a multiple 100+ point scorer. But instead, he's only once produced above an 84 point scoring pace. If the formula for success in Dallas works like it has in Carolina, Johnston could see much of his prime "wasted" from a fantasy perspective.
Jarvis, though rightfully regarded highly, plays for Carolina as well, putting him in the same predicament as Aho. He's also not shown quite as much as Johnston, making it so I feel he would not be a keep if Johnston is an option.
Boldy is intriguing. He's produced quite well and that's despite not playing alongside Kirill Kaprizov for the most part at ES. But the Wild will be able to freely spend, meaning either Boldy will have more talent on his ES line, or, if not, other teams will have to focus even more on Kaprizov's line, making it easier for Boldy's to thrive. I also don't see a scenario where Boldy is pushed off PP1. Is he a better keep than Wyatt? His floor is lower, but his near term ceiling likely higher, I'd argue. With a keep five, and in that Pettersson is being kept, I think the safer keep though might be the player with the higher floor.
In sum, we have Hellebuyck, who I agree is a must keep. That leaves Hagel, Pettersson, Michkov, Boldy and Johnston for the other four spots. I was all set to argue against your Michkov suggestion, but he looked like an entirely different player after Torts was gone, and his potential is seemingly limitless. I like him as a keep.
Does that though mean Pettersson is too risky, given the much higher floors offered by Boldy, Johnston and Hagel? If you say the downside of Pettersson is too much for you to stomach, I could get behind not keeping him, and opting for the other three. Perhaps that is the way to go in a keep five. Also, Pettersson's draft stock will never be lower, making him easier to redraft than he may even be again. I'd keep him though, because I think what was holding him back is gone, and he has a great shot to return to his past glory. If he is kept, then I think it's either Boldy or Hagel who I don't keep, as Johnston's floor will be a nice safety net with Pettersson being kept. The categories are great for Hagel, and what I love is he had 20+ points every quarter. He is just a rock solid player. Yes, he'd be an easier redraft than Boldy, who I do think has a better shot at being a 100-point player at some stage in his career than Hagel, but Hagel does seem so perfect for this league that he'd be my choice. Good luck!
Question #4 (from Adam)
I'm in a 12 team, H2H, keep 6 league, where keeper cost gets more two rounds more "expensive" every season. For example, a player drafted in round 9 would need to be kept in round 7 the next season, then round 5 the following season if kept again. It is always two rounds earlier until the 5th round, after which it is only one round earlier. To keep two players from the same round, one must get kept as if he had been drafted a round earlier or you'd need two picks in that round.
Rosters are 2LW, 2RW, 2C, 4D, 2Util, 2 G, but it might expand to 3Util. Categories are G, A, PPP, SOG, Hit, Blk, TA, PIM; GS, W, GAA, SA, SV%. Currently I have all my draft picks except no 7th and no 11th;; but I have two picks in rounds 15 and 16. I won my league this season (second time in a row) and my team currently looks like this (round they'd need to be kept in parentheses):
Jacob Markstom – 1st
Andrei Vasilevsky – 1st
Sidney Crosby -1st
Nikita Kucherov – 3rd
Joel Eriksson-Ek – 5th
Noah Dobson – 5th
Kevin Fiala – 5th
Joey Daccord – 7thh
Jason Robertson – 9th
Logan Thompson – 10th
Quinton Byfield – 12th
Tom Wilson – 12th
Sam Bennett – 13th
Anthony Stolarz – 15th
Colton Parakyo – 16th
Bryan Rust – 16th
Valeri Nichushkin – 17th
Rickard Rakell – 18th
Boone Jenner – 18th
Tyson Foerster – 18th
Denton Mateychuk -18th
Jared Spurgeon – 18th
I consider Kucherov and JRob locks, and part of me wants to just keep the three later goalies (Daccord, Stolarz and Thompson) given they are good value for their keeper cost. Daccord seems to be officially the Kraken's #1, Stoly based on how season plays out and how he fares in the playoffs, could be at worst the #1A and Thompson seems pretty top end for a 10th round cost. But then there’s Nich at 17th, Bennett at 13th, Wilson at 12th (who was an absolute beast this year, but has to slow down right?), Byfield at12th and even Parayko at16th (these last two were great adds for me – I also had Seider at one point and they just rocked my banger cats and got good offense). Bennett (ranked #41) and Wilson (ranked #16) are particularly valuable in our banger heavy format.
I know Stoly is a big question mark in terms of not being a volume goalie before now and the Leafs would prefer to have Woll as the anointed #1. Thompson still is vulnerable to falling into a time share with Lindgren, so is there a world where I only keep Daccord, one of Stoly/Thompson, plus Nich, and someone like Byfield/Wilson/Parayko?
JEEK/Dobson were my keepers last year, but at a 5th round keeper cost, I feel like that is around where they get drafted anyway, so I don't see real value there. Same with Fiala. The problem with keeping Peterka is I don’t currently own an 11th round pick, so if I kept JRob and 9 and Thompson at 10, either I would need to trade to get an 11th rounder or use an 8th rounder on JJP. Advice please?
No one in their right mind would argue against Kucherov of course; but Robertson is not the slam dunk he had been. Still, I do like that he scored at better than a 90 point rate in the second half yet without any major changes to his ice time or shot rate, suggesting that he seems to be finding his mojo again, since let's not forget when he thrived he didn't have much better deployment. We should presume he's a keeper too.
Let's look at Bennett. If he stays in Florida, he should keep doing what he's done. If he goes elsewhere, I see it as a chance to do even better, as he'd assuredly be on PP1, which he's yet to have happen in Florida, plus he'll get even more ice time. It is true he would have less talent around him and more pressure; but his combination of sandpaper and scoring should translate well to a new setting.
Wilson is indeed tantalizing, but I have concerns. For one, as I've noted many times in my columns it is very common for rough and tumble players to hit a wall in terms of scoring at or before age 30, and Wilson is now 31. I also am not liking his SOG rate dropping in each of the past two seasons despite his TOI rising. He also was a PP1 mainstay in 2024-25, but would be far from a lock to keep that spot, as it was a first for him. But whereas some might see his 19.0% SH% and think that gave him a major boost, consider he'd been at 15.7% or higher in three of the past four seasons; so in view of him becoming more of a selective shooter that rate is not necessarily unsustainable.
To me, those are the only other skaters in the conversation. I realize you mention Nich, but I cannot keep a player who misses so many games year after year. And we can't discount that he has had off ice issues, which we all hope don't recur but we have to factor into an assessment of him as a keeper. Also, it would be one thing if despite his missed games he thrived when he did play; however, he's never had a point-per-game scoring pace, and he is 33 years old, which is far from young and, to me, makes him even more of an injury risk. I realize he's a round bargain, but I bet he'd be a draft one too. Nich cannot be a keeper given your other skater choices.
You mention Byfield and Parayko. They are not keeps in my book. Byfield looks like someone who if, and it is indeed an if, he breaks out, it won't indeed come until his "big guy" 400 game mark. As I've said in recent columns, the list of players as tall and as heavy as Byfield includes a lot who were pegged for success but nearly all didn't achieve it, or only did so briefly before injuries befell them. Parayko is way better in this league than he likely gets credit for, but he just cannot be a keep in a keep six only. As for the rest, Rust and Rakell are intriguing, but if Rust was available at 18 after producing at the same level last season it means he'd likely be there again, as would Rakell. So they are not keeps.
Looking at the netminders, Thompson had a terrible final quarter, which at first I figured was due to having an increased workload for the first time; however, he actually played more games in 2023-24 and fared best in Q4 that season. It does raise concerns Thompson played very well for a decent stretch, but teams began to figure him out. He has the contract that should anoint him the #1 in Washinton, which is now looking like a team on the rise after many felt they'd need a rebuild.
Stolarz was superb in the regular season, and Toronto turned to him in the playoffs, even as he looked shaky at times and despite him never having been a true starter in his career. Woll being nearly five years younger, plus a Toronto draft pick, does seem to be who the team hopes takes the reins. Of course Stolarz will be as motivated as even next season, playing for a new contract.
As for Daccord, he was treated as the starter for 2024-25, that's for sure. But his GAA rose with each passing quarter, and his SV% for Q4 was a dismal .889. Although Philipp Grubauer only saw action in five games in Q4, he made them count, with a 2.19 GAA and .915 SV%. Still, the Kraken committed to Daccord in the form of a five year deal paying him $5M per season, which sure seems like they expect him to be the starter over Grubauer, who, admittedly, is paid more, but only on the books for two more seasons, making his contract still tough to swallow, but it will get easier and easier. Daccord would need to be kept in round seven, which is three rounds earlier than Thompson and eight earlier than Stolarz.
That is five players – Bennett, Wilson, Daccord, Stolarz, Thompson – for four spots. Who's the one to not keep? For me, it's Stolarz, as when in doubt with goalies go with those who are paid the most. And Bennett seems like a good bet to keep producing as well if not better, while Wilson, though risky, makes sense to continue to keep given how superb he is in this format. Good luck!
Question #5 (from Gary)
I'm in a 10 team dynasty weekly H2H non-cap league. Categories are G, A, PPP, SOG, Hits, Blks, FOW, W, GAA, SV%, SO. Rosters are 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2 Util, 2G, 4Bench, 1 NA, 5 IR+. I won my league this season, with this as my end of season roster:
C: Sidney Crosby, Roope Hintz, Dylan Cozens, Mark Scheifele, Nico Hischier, Mason McTavish
LW: Leon Draisaitl (C/LW), Filip Forsberg, Brayden Schenn (C/LW), Evander Kane
RW: Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Marchessault, Owen Tippett (LW/RW), Seth Jarvis (LW/C/RW), Anton Lundell (C/RW)
D: Moritz Seider, Victor Hedman, Thomas Harley, Seth Jones, Dougie Hamilton, Miro Heiskanen, Oren Zellweger
G: Juuse Saros, MacKenzie Blackwood, Darcy Kuemper, Devon Levi
As you can see, I have 26 players, so I need to drop four to get to the 22 that each team must start with each season. Who do you see as my drops?
With 220 players owned, there really is a need to focus mostly on the here and now, even more so since this team is so strong and has a continued window to win. Prospects likely can be picked up easily, or redrafted. I'm saying adios to Zellweger and Levi. That's two of the four cuts right there.
As far as where the other cuts will be, I think it's forwards, as there are only six defensemen for five spots and three goalies for two. Plus, these all seem like solid owns. If you won with them, I say don't fix what isn't broken. Let's look to forwards for the other two drops. The names that stand out as being in the lowest tier are Cozens, McTavish, Schenn, Kane, Marchessault, Tippett and Lundell.
Cozens was okay in Ottawa, but his stats there seem much better because of five points in his last two games, while in the other 19 he had 11 points. He also was not a PP1 mainstay. He's a maybe.
McTavish looked very strong in Q4, with 18 points in 21 games and nearly three SOG per game, and a spot on PP1. Plus he had 16 points in 18 Q3 games. All this right as he was at his 200 game breakout threshold. He should not be a drop in my book.
Schenn still hits, but his scoring really is drying up, as is his PP time. He'll also be 34 when 2024-25 kicks off. He seems like a cut, but let's look at everyone first.
Kane didn't appear in a game in 2024-25 until the playoffs, during which he's had not much ice time, and virtually none on the PP. He is still hitting and getting points, but he'll be 34 too for 2024-25, and is nearly as far removed from 70+ point production as Schenn. He also seems like more of a supporting cast player at this stage of his career, stuck in the bottom six.
Marchessault is no spring chicken either, but plays a style that seemingly could translate to sustained success. His shooting fell quite a bit; yet considering the trainwreck that was the Preds, he didn't fare too poorly, plus likely will continue to be a top six and PP1 player.
Tippett, after inking a big contract and finishing fourth in 2023-24 among forwards in SOG per 60 minutes, saw his production crater. A new coach offers a fresh start, and he should get a long look given what he's being paid, plus he was still shooting a good amount.
Lundell saw his production inch upward, but mainly because of success early when Aleksander Barkov was out. And if Sam Bennett re-signs, Lundell likely will again be mired in bottom six. Still, he does have potential, plus Barkov and Bennett are good bets to miss a decent amount of games.
Looking at all of these forwards, Schenn and Kane seem to be the cuts. I'm not wild about Cozens or Lundell, or even Tippett; however, they have higher ceilings, and I worry things will only get worse for Schenn and Kane as they get older. Plus, much of what they bring in the way of banger stats can be found in other players or plug ins. So cut them, plus Levi and Zellweger. Good luck!
Question #6 (from Steven)
I’m in a 13 team cap keeper league. Our roster consists of 23 players, with 9F, 6D, and 1G starting each day. Although each of those 16 line-up spots can total only 82 games, many in the league fail to come even close. The cap is set at the NHL cap (total salary, not AAV) plus 10%; so it's projected to be $105.05M . We can keep 13 players each year, plus we get 10 free agent moves. Scoring is G(3), A(2), +/-(1), PIM(0.2), SHG(1), SOG(0.1), W(4), L(-2), GA(-1.6), SV(0.2), SHO(5).
At this point, I think I can go one of two ways, the first being cheaper players with potential, to allow me to not have to penny pinch, or more expensive and proven guys, but weaker depth. The most precious asset in our league is scoring d-men. My keeper options are as follows, with how many points they had in 2024-25 in our format plus their upcoming salary, as well as my thoughts on each. I left out guys who clearly had no chance of being kept.
Dylan Strome – 216.7 pts – $4.5M – seems to be improving and strong likelihood to keep at his price
Wyatt Johnston— 203 pts – RFA – he'll get a big raise, but I think it'd be tough not to hold him
Seth Jarvis – 206.6 pts – $10.95M – he's paid a lot now, but it will drop, while should improve
Jordan Kyrou– 227 pts. – $10.5M – another who's paid a lot but produces and will become cheaper
Ryan Leonard – 3 pts – $0.95M – enticing due to salary and potential, but is it too soon
Jared McCann – 176 pts – $4.25M – pretty dependable, plus new coach could give him more TOI
Matt Coranato – 147 pts – $6.5M – he's shined at times and seems poised for a larger role, which now should come via his new contract
Dmitri Voronkov – 160 pts – RFA – similar to Coronato, although more of a forward logjam in Columbus
Alexis Laferierre – 148 pts – RFA – step back after many thought he'd improve, plus he might still get a large deal, but there also will be a new coach to give him a fresh look
Jonathan Drouin – 96pts – UFA – produces well when he plays, but the when is the issue
Nicolaj Ehlers – 185 pts – UFA – he seems like he's ready to pop, but there is let down potential
Marcus Kasper – 115 pts – $0.85M – played quite well and should see an expanded role
John Carlson – 145 pts – $6M – older but solid, yet Jakub Chychrun staying raises concerns
Noah Dobson – 97 pts – RFA – will get a big raise but was a 70 point guy in 2022-23
Quinn Hughes – 195 pts – $10.25M – easy lock for keeper
Brock Faber – 83 pts – $10m – Like many feared, didn't live up to expectations, plus now Zeev Buium is arriving and maybe others due to Wild being able to spend
Roman Josi – 78 pts – $8M – was so great so recently, but age is a concern
Anthony Stolarz– 151 pts – $2.25M – seems like a lock since I can't see him playing less
Stuart Skinner – 100 pts – $3M – seems to be getting worse, but is quite cheap
As you can see, that is 19 names, so I need to find six drops. Who are your six and why?
The first guy I'm dropping is Faber. Many had high hopes for him after 2023-24, but as I pointed out even before this season things could not have gone any better that season. Given that his rate of production dropped so much this season, without Buium having arrived plus any other big names due to Minnesota finally being able to spend, Faber is not a keep at $10M.
I'm also very iffy on Carlson. He had 19 points in his first 24 games, then only 32 in the next 55, which is a 48 point pace. Most importantly though is his PP TOI for Q4 was 2:14 a game, this from a player who is usually well above 3:00. And Jakob Chychrun just inked a deal that will pay him $9M per year for eight seasons, which to me signifies a changing of the guard and, with that, an increased PP role for Chychrun. I realize $6M is not a huge chunk of change, but if Carlson dips to only a point-per-every-other-game guy then that is too much money.
Skinner is indeed a bargain, but he also seems like a trainwreck. His ratio of quality starts to really bad starts went from 3:1 in 2023-24 to 2:1 in 2024-25, and he's been pushed aside in the playoffs. It may sound strange, but I'd almost be more inclined to keep Skinner if he actually was paid more, since at only $3M per season that can easily lead to him being the back-up or even banished to the minors.
Josi's drop off is a major concern, as is his age, since – as noted above – once even elite d-men like him lose their mojo they do not tend to recapture it. Still, Josi has no real threat to his "spot" and even playing as poorly as he did managed to nearly score at a 60 point pace.
I think the remaining three drops will be among the unsigned players, and depend largely on how much they are being paid. I'll also consider Leonard as a drop, since while he may be great at some point, the fact that Washington has done so much better than expected should cause them to not rush Leonard into the line-up, plus give him less of a chance to make enough impact to be a top sixer. Still though, some of the Caps' top-six are not proven scorers, so Leonard could still land a spot there. As for the unsigned players, Laffy has actually already been signed to a deal with an AAV north of $7M, so I think he's a non-keep. There will be a new coach, but Laffy has been set up for success and just hasn't stepped up, plus Artemi Panarin is a threat to leave after the 2025-26 season, and who knows how bad the Rags will be if he jumps ship. Dobson will get paid, but he did get 70 points, which is no small task. Unless he's making upwards of $9M, I think he's a keep. On the other hand, Voronkov might not be, as his numbers look great until you see that he had 22 points in 22 games in Q2, meaning he had 24 in his other 51 games, and that was despite a PP1 spot. I would not keep him unless he gets paid under $4.5M, or maybe even under $4M. Also, although Ehlers has been pegged for success once he finally gets paid and deployed like a top liner; however, who's to say how he will perform amidst much greater expectations? If he makes $8M or more, he might not be a keep, as let's also not forget he is 29 years old, so his peak was mostly wasted in Winnipeg. Drouin could be a bit of a risk, but I think he'll sign for a low enough amount to justify keeping. Still, if he makes over $6M, that could be too much.
In short, my definite non-keeps are Faber, Carlson, Laffy, and Skinner. After that, I'm waiting to see how much the likes of Voronkov, Ehlers, and Drouin get paid. Most likely Voronkov will not make the cut. If you have confidence in Drouin and Ehlers though, I can understand that, in which case I'd say consider not keeping Leonard. Good luck!
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I'm always looking for mailbag questions, so don't hesitate to sent them to me. You can get do so in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to admin@dobbersports.com with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".
When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.