Ramblings: Skinner Stymies Stars in Game 3; Value from Carlsson, Fiala, Jarry and McLeod Next Year; USA Wins World Championship (May 26)

Brennan Des

2025-05-26

Edmonton 6, Dallas 1 (Oilers lead 2-1)

Somebody call the press. Stuart Skinner has posted his first non-shutout win of the postseason. It only took eight games…

In all seriousness, Skinner is on a level that seemed out of his scope when the playoffs started. He's allowed just six goals in his past five starts. The Oilers were outshot 34-24 on Sunday, but Skinner stood tall with 33 saves. 

With two points in Game 3, Connor McDavid claimed sole possession of the NHL's playoff scoring race. Edmonton's captain is up to 22 points in 14 games this postseason, followed closely by teammate Leon Draisaitl, who has 21 points in 14 games after tallying an assist on Sunday. The three-horse scoring race is rounded out by Mikko Rantanen, who kept pace with an assist of his own, giving him 21 points in 16 outings. 

After posting three assists on Sunday, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is currently the top scorer of Round 3. Three games against Dallas, three multipoint outings. Really impressive stuff from a player that was coming off a disappointing 52-point pace in the regular season. 

Evander Kane also racked up three assists on Sunday. It's impressive that he has 10 points through 13 playoff games despite missing the entire regular season while recovering from multiple injuries and surgeries. 

Zach Hyman was the third Oiler with three points in Game 3, breaking a three-game point drought. He racked up 10 hits and leads all players with 109 hits in these playoffs. Still, it's concerning to see Hyman lose PP1 time to Corey Perry this postseason. So far, Hyman has seen just 37% of Edmonton's power-play time in these playoffs, while Perry is up at 60%. Of course, 40-year-old Perry is a free agent this summer and may not be a threat to Hyman next year, but Hyman looking replaceable with the man advantage would be bad for his fantasy outlook. 

Evan Bouchard picked up a goal and assist to extend his lead in the playoff scoring race among defensemen. His 17 points in 14 games dwarf second place Thomas Harley, who has a modest 11 points in 16 games. Bouchard has consistently performed at a high level in the postseason as he entered this year with 58 points in 53 playoff appearances.

Roope Hintz was a game-time decision for Game 3, and although he didn't end up playing, the fact that he took warmups suggests he should be back sooner rather than later.

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We've spent the last two Mondays talking about players who got hot late in the regular season and potentially increased their fantasy stock for the upcoming campaign. Here are four more names for that list:

Leo Carlsson

The second overall pick of the 2023 draft now has two NHL campaigns under his belt. He paced for 43 points in his rookie year and 47 in his sophomore season – promising numbers for a 20-year-old, but nothing that demands you to target him in fantasy formats. To convince you that he's a must-add, we'll need to put the season-long stats aside and analyze his performance down the stretch this past regular season. After an underwhelming start that featured a measly 16 points in his first 45 games, the young Duck elevated his game to the tune of 29 points in his final 31 appearances. He carried that momentum into the IIHF World Championship, racking up 10 points in 10 games for Team Sweden.

Aside from his individual improvement, one of the things that seemed to help Carlsson down the stretch was sharing the ice with fellow budding star Cutter Gauthier. Those two saw some time together early in the season but were broken up and put back together late in the year. They displayed great chemistry together, and with Alex Killorn riding shotgun, managed to outscore opponents in both actual and expected goals across 200 minutes of action (via Natural Stat Trick). I imagine they get another look together next year, even though there's a new coach in town by the name of Joel Quenneville.

I'm optimistic Carlsson can take another step offensively next year because he has so much room to grow in the power-play department. He finished with just seven PPPs this season as Anaheim posted a shocking 11.8% success rate on the man advantage – one of the worst rates we've seen in the past 20 years. There's a lot of offensive talent on this Ducks' roster and I think they'll see more PP success next year, enabling Carlsson to boost his point total on the power play. It may take a couple years for him to hit point-per-game numbers, but I see potential for a 60-point pace next season. He's an excellent young player and will be one of the league's premier players going forward. Hollywood, Catholicism, and the NHL. Led by Leo in the past, present, and future, respectively.

Tristan Jarry

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This summer, when you're sitting at the draft table and Jarry's name comes up, you'll probably get flashbacks to his atrocious start this season. Such flashbacks will discourage you from even thinking about rostering the Penguins' netminder in fantasy formats, and that perspective would be justified based on how much Jarry struggled. However, although his season-long stats are marred by his early woes, Jarry actually put together a decent final stretch of the campaign. After a couple stints in the AHL, Jarry returned to Pittsburgh in March and posted a respectable 8-4-2 record, .904 SV% and 2.81 GAA, with 4.22 goals saved above expected (via Evolving Hockey). This is a goalie that's consistently saved more goals than expected over the past few years, so I'm optimistic he can bounce back next season. Confidence is key for netminders, so I'm hoping he can build off this year's strong finish, parlaying that into a strong start next season. Most will remember his struggles from the past year, missing his promising finish. That creates a situation where his fantasy value will probably be lower than it should be for the upcoming campaign – giving you room to pounce and soak up that surplus value. I understand hesitancy because the team in front of him isn't great, but there's potential for Jarry's situation to improve if the Pens make some moves this offseason, or if he ends up on a different team.

Kevin Fiala

The Swiss sniper has often been recognized for elevating his game in the second half of a season, and this year was no different. After posting a lacklustre 22 points in his first 40 appearances, he rattled off 38 points in his next 41 outings. He stayed hot in the playoffs, racking up seven points in six games, and then carried that magic to the World Championship, where he posted 10 points in eight games for Switzerland.

One of the biggest differences between Fiala's first and second half of the regular season was his center – Phillip Danault in the first half and Quinton Byfield in the second. Not to take anything away from Danault, who's an excellent two-way player, but he just doesn't have the finishing ability that Byfield does. Although Danault and Fiala dominated in shot share and expected goals while playing together, they outscored opponents by a narrow margin of 15-13 and posted an on-ice shooting percentage of 7.54%. That's in a sample of 373 minutes in the first half (via Natural Stat Trick). Fiala and Byfield also excelled in shot share and expected goals but posted a shooting percentage of 11.73% and outscored the opposition 23 to 8 in their 410 minutes together during the second half (via Natural Stat Trick). Now, over the past six years, between LA and Minnesota, Fiala has shown he can produce at a high level regardless of his linemates. However, I think more time beside budding star Quinton Byfield might be the difference between a 60-point pace and an 80-point pace for Fiala next season.

Ryan McLeod

If you're looking at season-long point totals, you'll see that Ryan McLeod put up 53 points this year – his fourth full season in the NHL. It's a sizeable increase from his 30 points with the Oilers in 2023-24, but a 50-point player doesn't really move the needle in most fantasy formats. You know what might move the needle? Putting up 35 points in 38 games down the stretch, which is exactly what McLeod did this past season. He saw a full three-minute increase in ice time between the first and second half (from 15:23 to 18:23), which enabled him to go from 0.44 points per game to 0.92 points per game. It's remarkable that he was able to score at such a high rate without any real time on the power play.

Now I'm of two minds here, because on one hand, McLeod was underutilized in Edmonton and this past season gave us a glimpse of what the speedy two-way threat can do when given the opportunity. However, I don't think it's as simple as his second half being a sign of what's to come for a full season next year. He spent a big chunk of the second half skating beside JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn. Although those three outscored opponents 12 to 7 at 5on5, they posted a lofty on-ice shooting percentage of 22.2% (via Natural Stat Trick). That's roughly double what I'd expect over a full season, so I wouldn't bet on them replicating that rate next year. McLeod's individual shooting percentage of 20.6% will also be tough to match as he'd shot between 11-14% before this year. I still think he can provide fantasy value next season because he was more productive than people realize, but since some of that production was fuelled by unsustainable shooting percentages, I wouldn't go out of my way to target him in fantasy leagues.

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Speaking of Sabres, Tage Thompson scored the overtime winner for Team USA in this year's World Championship, giving the Americans a 1-0 victory over Team Switzerland in the gold-medal game. 

I'm sure we'll have more thoughts from the World Championship in this summer's Ramblings, but one player that really benefitted from this tournament was Jeremy Swayman. After the worst regular season of his career, Swayman bounced back with a perfect 7-0 record, 1.69 GAA and .921 SV% on the international stage. He himself acknowledged feeling rejuvenated after this tournament, gaining confidence and rediscovering his game. That sets the stage for a bounce-back performance in 2025-26.

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Thanks for reading! Hope you have a great week ahead :)

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