Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real-life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired Canadian forward

CLUE #2 – I played for four NHL teams in my career, none of them Original Six or Canada-based

CLUE #3 – I had season of 82+ points, but never again totaled more than 66

CLUE #4 – Although not a member of the "Triple Gold" club that requires winning a Stanley Cup, an Olympic Gold, and a World Championships Gold, I did achieve two of the three

CLUE #5 – I was a first round draft pick

CLUE #6 – Despite being a first rounder, I did not debut in the NHL until age 20

CLUE #7 – I went on to have a very long career, placing me – for now – in the top 100 all time in regular season games played

CLUE #8 – But I didn't always play for great teams, so I'm outside of the top 100 in all-time career playoff games

CLUE #9 – Two of the four teams I played for are in the same state

CLUE #10 – Nearly half my career playoff games came in a three consecutive season stretch that saw me win a Stanley Cup twice

CLUE #11 – The teams I played for are LA, Philly, Columbus, and Pittsburgh, but not in that order

CLUE #12 – My initials are J.C.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming. 

Topic #1 – What are everyone's thoughts on Aliaksei Protas? His 21% shooting percentage is obviously unsustainable and screams regression; however, a mere one of his 66 points came on the PP. Does he receive a shot on PP1 next season, or at least any PP time? If so, will it be enough to offset his SH% likely coming back to earth? Also, might he have another gear in that he is a "big player" and thus not supposed to fully break out until game 400 or so?

All season it seemed like folks were waiting for Protas to hit a wall, yet he had 15-20 points in each quarter, which is a positive since if he had one or even perhaps two scorching quarters then I'd be more skeptical of his production being sustainable. He also had a high but not stratospheric IPP of 75.9% overall, a secondary assist rate of only 30.6%, and started a not too high 59.2% of his shifts in the offensive zone. These suggest he's already a points magnet, but still has room for more in the form of added assists.

Those things having been said, there are also several red flags. For starters, it wasn't just that he shot 21.4%, but the team shot 14.1% at 5×5 when he was on the ice, plus his PDO was 1041. If those sound high, it's because they are, with the SH% putting him second among the 279 forwards who played 70+ games, with only two others above 13.0%. He was near the top in PDO, ranking 12th. Granted, those in his vicinity in these areas include some of the best of the best in the NHL; however, without their pedigree Protas does stick out.

Also, him having tallied 66 points despite, as noted, a mere one coming on the PP, is literally uncharted territory, as out of 2284 instances of a forward scoring 65+ points in a season dating back to 1980-81, there were a mere 16 instances where the player did not have double digits in PPPts, and only two of those had fewer than five. But there is some degree of a silver lining in that one of those two was Dale Hunter, who did so at age 21 in his second season, and went on to post 70+ points in five other campaigns. Also, among those with fewer than 10 there's Gary Roberts, who did so at age 23 and went on two have two point per game seasons before being derailed by injuries, plus Brandon Hagel in 2023-24, and we all saw that he rose even further this season, as well as Travis Konecny also in 2023-24, and he rose to 76 points this season, and some guy named Jaromir Jagr at age 19 for the Pens. In fact, the majority of those on the list who did so at age 25 or younger went on to at least some degree of further success. Rather than being a reason for concern, this might portend stability or even room for improvement.

The poster did mention Protas' size, but mainly as a possible reason why he could do better since he's played so well despite it being a lot earlier than the 400 game mark when larger players are expected to break out. But Protas being as tall as he is puts him in select company, as dating back to 1990-91, a total of only 12 players as tall or taller than Protas cumulatively logged 300+ games, with the two – Peter Worrell and Chris McAllister – who were also as heavy or heavier than Protas amounting to nothing. But they never had a season as good as the one he already had, so I'd say that sets him apart from those two. As for the rest, there are guys who had success, like Tage Thompson, Eric Daze, Nik Antorpov, and Martin Hanzal, but notice that is only four names, and three of them had shortened careers due to injury, with Thompson also having some injury issues already in his career. Protas being this good, but also this big, might be a cause for concern as to his longevity.

In sum, Protas' season had several major red flags, plus his size puts him at risk for injury, but some metrics were reasonable if not encouraging. I think he's earned a long leash in terms of the top six; but if PP time didn't come despite how well he already was playing, I'm not sure it will materialize. Expect 55 points, but with a better chance at 60 or more than he does at 50 or less.

Topic #2 – A team has a chance to trade their Thomas Harley for Seth Jarvis and Alex Ovechkin. Should they do the deal? Their league specifics and rosters are: Roto 10 team. 24 man roster (+3 IR) – Keep 20 – Daily settings, Start 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 5D, 2G, 1UTIL, Categories: G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPA, PPG, D PTS – W, SV, SV%.

C- Matthews, Larkin, MacKinnon, Scheifele

RW- Marner, Nichushkin, Barzal (C)

LW- DeBrincat, Landeskog, Knies, Slafkovsky (RW), Marchand

D- Sanderson, Chabot, Dunn, Broberg, Harley

G- Oettinger, Gustavsson, Binnington, Hofer

Certainly defensemen are important here, not just because there are fewer of them who are fantasy worthy but since, in this instance, there is a separate category for defenseman points. But at the same time, other categories that in general "favor" defensemen more so than forwards, like HIT and BLK, are not counted. But HIT happens to be a strong area for Ovi too, as are SOG, which likewise are not a category.

Looking at Harley, he had a chance to make a mark when Miro Heiskanen was out for a major chunk of the second half. Sure enough, Harley did fare well better with Miro out, producing at just under a point per game level in 30 games and tallying 12 PPPts in the process. But 17 of his 29 points came in just eight games, meaning in the other 22 he had 12 points. Although it is good to see Harley can pile on points, the lack of consistency is a bit of a concern, especially when for the entire portion of the season where Harley overlapped with Heiskanen he had a mere four multipoint games, and that was despite Heiskanen struggling. Simply put, Heiskanen is the golden boy. Due to what he's done and being paid, he's a "the guy" d-man. Harley will get a big raise come next summer; but I see no universe where he makes more than Heiskanen, unless they sign and trade him, ala Tampa and Mikhail Sergachev.

If Harley does stay though, I have not seen enough to convince me he can thrive despite the very long shadow cast by Heiskanen, especially since there is no universe where the Stars would put two d-men on PP1. Although there have been instances of other defensemen finding success despite playing at the same time as a "the guy" rearguard, like Kevin Shattenkirk when he and Alex Pietrangelo were in St. Louis, or Mathieu Schneider or Brian Rafalski when they played for Detroit at the same time as Nicklas Lidstrom. But those are the exceptions, as since 1997 there have only been nine instances of a team having two 55+ point d-men in the same season. Not quite an impossibility, but pretty darn rare.

Unless he gets shipped out of town, I'd say Harley will remain in the shadow of Heiskanen. Meanwhile, Jarvis made nice strides this past season, nearly hitting the point per game mark. He also is locked into PP1, yet still has room for his TOI, PPPt and SOG rates to climb. Granted, Carolina does put a ceiling on one's production since they don't heap ice time on even their best players; however, Jarvis has more than amply proven himself such that his spot is secure and he should do no worse than he did this season.

Ovi I see as a throw in. Sure, you take him; however, with no SOG or HIT categories, you likely put him on a short leash. But I think Jarvis alone is worth the price of Harley, even though there is the defensemen points category, since Harley looks to be overshadowed and not capable of producing well when Heiskanen is in the line-up.

Topic #3 – In a 10 Team Keep 6, H2H – 1 win league with categories of G, A, SOG, PPP, FOW, HIT, BLK, Wins, GAA, Sv%, SHO, rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Ut, 4D, 3G, 6Bench, 2-I/R+, 1NA?, and each team being required to have 4 weekly goalie appearances minimum, a team has the following players on its roster:

C: Thomas, Hintz, D. Strome, Backlund
LW: Draisaitl, Kaprizov, Stutzle, Hagel, Kasper
RW: Marner, Rantanen, Guenther, Byfield
D: Makar, Q. Hughes, Dahlin, Trouba, Seeler, Bischel
G: Vasilevskiy, Gustavsson, Blackwood

They are intent on keeping Makar, Hughes, Dahlin, Draisaitl and Kaprizov, but are torn on the sixth keeper. Should it be Rantanen, Marner, or Stutzle?

First off, I saw that some in the thread were saying Dahlin might not be a keep. I vehemently disagree, as he rebounded big time in scoring, and he is amazing in multicat. I'd keep him if he would only have 60 point upside; however, with him having point per game potential and all he also brings to the table in multicat, he's a must keep. The other four are also lay ups as well; so it will boil down to Stutzle, Marner or Rantanen.

I'd caution the GM, and others, to not see what Rantanen is doing and figure that will be his new normal. I happen to think he is a man on a mission this postseason, to show Colorado, and to some extent Carolina, that they blew it with him. But the ice time he's getting for Dallas simply is not realistic during the season. I mean if Jason Robertson didn't see heaps of ice time the season after he posted 109 points, I believe Rantanen won't either, and that's despite his huge price tag. Dallas has a winning regular season formula that rolls out three scoring lines, with its top line getting what would often pass for second line minutes on many teams. If it was me, I'd try to trade Rantanen, since it's called selling high for a reason and ask yourself when his value would ever realistically be higher given his age and the team for which he'll be playing. See if you can turn him into David Pastrnak, who was scorching in the second half but whose season long totals somewhat obscure that. Heck, the Auston Matthews owner may have soured on him enough to deal him for Rantanen, and Matthews not only can be among the best of the best if healthy, but he gets heaps of FOW and even some hits and blocks.

If you cannot sell high on Rantanen though, who is the keep? I really want to say Stutzle, but I am not encouraged by his SOG and hit rates dropping, and PPPt rate rising without an uptick in points. He's also still yet to have a team SH% at ES in double digits, and his IPPs, though solid, are not so high as to suggest he can climb to be a consistent 90 or maybe even 85 point player. Marner might be the keep, as whoever gets him will be paying him a ton and he will likely have a huge chip on his shoulder, or he comes back to Toronto to do more of the same. Let's not forget this is a player who has posted a 100+ point scoring rate in each of the last five seasons and just turned 28. To me, he's the keep if no sell high deal can be made for Rantanen.

Topic #4 –In a 16 Team, Dynasty, H2H Cat league with categories of G, A, STP, SOG, HIT, BLK, TOI, W, GAA, SV, SV%, 26 Main Roster Players and 24 Minor Roster Player (<150GP Skaters, <85GP Goalies), a team ended the season with the following players on their rosters. Which main roster players should be cut for which minors graduating players?
Main Roster:
F: Cates, Hayton, Laine, Zegras, Caufield, Cuylle, Mittlestadt, Newhook, Dach, Lafreniere, Mercer, Olivier, Byfield, Foerster, Laferriere, A .Protas
D: Byram, Ekman-Larsson, Harley, Q. Hughes, Heiskanen, Middleton, Schneider
G: Binnington, Dostal

Minors:
F: Barkey, Bordeleau, Hage, Pinelli, Dorofeyev, Mazur, Minten, Rosen, Vanacker, Graf, Greentree, Guenther, Gushchin, O'Reilly, Parascak, Stankoven
D: L. Hutson, Benning, Bichsel, Grans, Nikishin, Sandin-Pellika
G: Fowler, Bjarnson

Looking at minors players, clearly Hutson, Guenther and Stankoven should be promoted. After them though, I believe the only other ones to consider are Dorofeyev, Bichsel, and Nikishin. Who would the drops be? The team doesn't have any "no brainer" cuts. As such, we should start with three, to cover Hutson, Guenther and Stankoven, and then see if any among who's left would justify promoting the other three.

For sure at least one Hab forward is getting cut. Dach looks like he's on the verge of being the next Robby Fabbri, seemingly on the cusp of success but for whom frequent injuries take a toll both in terms of skill but also playing time. As for Newhook, some were shocked Colorado traded him, and he looked like he'd found success with the Habs only to falter big time. Even Laine is concerning, although at least with him there is past glory. Dawson Mercer is still young too, making it hard to stomach dropping him, especially after he showed early promise. But two straight seasons of sub point-per-every-other-game production suggest he is not cut out for the top six. Although Dach, Newhook and Mercer are young enough to turn things around, when making room for Hutson, Guenther, and Stankoven, they are the certain drops. 

That takes care of the spots needed for the must promote players. Are there others who merit cutting for any of the other three? Cates just hit his 200 game breakout threshold, but is already 26, and strikes me as at best a middle six forward who'll never find his way onto PP1. To me, Dorofeyev offers more than that, so Cates is a cut for him.

With the other two options being d-men, and only forwards being cut thus far, the question is whether any main roster d-men merit dropping for Bichsel or Nikishin. I realize Bichsel a banger beast, but his TOI is not great, and Nikishin likely will throw his body around while also racking up more points. So I think I'm only looking to promote Nikishin, and to make room I'm saying goodbye to Schneider, who's decent but unremarkable. OEL is a tempting drop; however, he still is a minute eater and it will be good to see where he and Bichsel are this time next year.

Topic #5 – In a full keeper, H2H cap league (real cap hits) with starting line-ups and points for skaters as follows: 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D. G, A, PPP, SOG, BLK, +/-, a team that owns Brandt Clarke has been offered either Marco Rossi or Jonathan Drouin and Morgan Geekie for Clarke. Is either deal worth considering? If so, which is better?. Note that the team with Clarke is short on C but has a good number of d-men, and the team with the other players has the opposite situation.

At first glance, Clarke's 33 points in 78 games seems decent, until noting that he started the season with 12 points in 13 games, meaning he tallied a mere 21 additional points in 65 games, which is pretty darn bad. Yes, he ceded PP1 back to Drew Doughty, which didn't help matters, nor did his eroding ice time overall. On a positive note, he was +14, although that likely was helped by starting 59.5% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Also, the team shot 10.2% at 5×5 when he was on the ice; and his overall IPP of 42.9% and PP IPP of 60.0% were pretty good, suggesting that once given more ice time he should be able to produce. Seemingly, the Kings were just easing him into the NHL. Make no mistake – he remains the heir apparent to Doughty.

Rossi once again fared best when centering Kirill Kaprizov, with 38 points in 44 games in the first half. After that though, he dipped to 24 in his final 38 games. He also did well but not fantastic on the PP, although his barely 30% secondary assist rate was very low for a center, so he likely left some points on the table.

The big question is whether the Wild feel Rossi is good enough to be a first line center, or they sign or trade for a more proven pivot given they can now spend freely for the first time in ages. Tough to say; but if Rossi is pushed off the top line, it is difficult to see him succeeding given his track record, as Matt Boldy was still able to shine with Rossi even as Rossi faltered, and the Wild might want to diversify their lines. Either way, I'm not sure Rossi will find his way onto PP1, and stick. If not, that could be a concern, since the Wild are a team that leans heavily on its top unit.

Drouin seems to have found a nice home in Colorado, and my money says he inks a deal to remain there. But he's had injury issues too, and just turned 30. Geekie found great chemistry with David Pastrnak; and although there are several centers who might rotate on and off the top line with superstar Pastrnak, Geekie seemingly has no real challengers to his "spot" as the top line left wing. We saw what the effect of playing with Pasta can be, as Geekie started the season with four points in 18 games, meaning after than tallied 53 points in 59 contests, and he ended scorching, with an 11 game point streak during which he racked up 19 points.

Geekie too is not that young; however, at nearly 27 he's less than four years older than Rossi, so it's not like he's on the other side of 30 like Drouin. Considering the team with Clarke has a surplus on D, I think this is a trade to be made, and I'm taking Drouin and Geekie in return, as the chances of one – if not both – outperforming Rossi are high.

Topic #6 – Does Macklin Celebrini have 100 point potential? Or will he settle closer to a point per game level?

Given the continued hype around Connor Bedard, Celebrini was a lot more under the radar than one would normally be in his shoes. As a result, many might have missed the fact that he did a lot of things that portend greatness. Consider that without even looking at metrics, despite being age 18 and never having played even 55 games at any level in his life, he suited up for 70 games in 2024-25, and his point total in each quarter was within one or two of his games played total. In fact, his best quarter was Q4, when many a rookie hits a wall. Instead, he kept up his scoring and SOG rates. That is impressive.

Speaking of scoring and stats, Celebrini produced at a 0.9+ point per game rate and fired an average of 3.3 SOG per game as an 18 year old center. You probably think that is not a huge accomplishment; but rest assured it is. Ponder all the amazing centers who played at age 18 dating back to Mario Lemieux. None achieved both of those feats. In fact, only two did in the history of the NHL – Wayne Gretzky and Dale Hawerchuk. I realize Hawerchuk is not someone considered to be in the top echelon of centers; but he had six seasons of 100+ points, and another four of 90+. He was a superstar. Although past comparables are not always predictive of future results, for Celebrini to be in the same company as these two – and these two alone – centers given their age 18 accomplishments seems to suggest greatness lies ahead.

On top of that though, Celebrini had an overall IPP of 79.7% and an IPP on the PP of 78.6%, both despite starting only 51% of his shifts in the offensive zone and a 5×5 team SH% of 8.4. For comparison, the forwards this season who had both an overall IPP and PP IPP that were as high or higher than Celebrini's were David Pastrnak, Artemi Panarin, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Nikita Kucherov, Kirill Kaprizov. That, right there, is pretty much the best of the best there is in today's NHL.

Just think what Celebrini might do when San Jose improves; and they seemingly have the core in place to get better soon. Even if they don't, however, not only do I think Celebrini becoming a consistent 100+ point scorer is a virtual guarantee, but it could happen as soon as 2025-26, and if not then, almost assuredly by 2026-27. When all is said and done, he may turn Connor Bedard into an afterthought.

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THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Jeff Carter!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing admin@dobbersports.com with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.