Ramblings: Offseason Planning in the Pacific Division Including Anaheim Trade Targets, San Jose’s Rebuild, Vancouver’s Scoring, and More – June 6

Michael Clifford

2025-06-06

The 2025 Dobber Prospects Report is now available in the Dobber Store! With the Entry Draft just a few weeks away and the Memorial Cup behind us, now is the time to brush up on the names fantasy owners will hear called later this month. It also covers a bevy of prospects currently in the pipeline from each team, so whether looking for an update on current prospects or a preview of the names yet to come, the Prospects Report has it all. Help support what we do and click the link above to get your copy today!
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The Boston Bruins hired former Bruin forward Marco Sturm to be their next head coach and I wrote about that yesterday here.

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We have spent the last six weeks reviewing the NHL season, be it assessing projections, looking at changes to shot, hit, and block counts, the role of young players, or fantasy MVPs. We are going to continue that looking-back trend but with an eye to the future. We are going to take the next several Ramblings to review the weaknesses of each team that led to subpar fantasy performances and how those weaknesses can improve in the offseason either via trade or free agency. This is going to be division by division, so let's start out with the Pacific Division. 

Anaheim Ducks

The problem remains the power play. They had the worst conversion rate in the league (11.8%) and tied for the fewest total PP goals (26). The 30 teams who scored at least 30 power-play goals averaged 50 PP goals each. That means if Anaheim wants to get to roughly an average mark, their PP scoring needs to double. That is… a lot.

Using tracking from All Three Zones, Anaheim (59.4%) was basically at the league average for carrying the puck into the offensive zone on the power play (59.7%). The rate at which they set up the power play on an entry was 41.2%, just under the league average of 42.5%. The problem was that 11.2% of their passes led to shots from the blue line, the highest rate in the league. It led to a severe lack of shots from the middle of the ice (from HockeyViz):

The best power plays can generate from a variety of areas, but Anaheim was very one- or two-dimensional in what they did once they got into the zone.

This is where I'll recommend something that might get laughed at, but here goes: Trade for Chris Kreider. He is coming off a down year, no doubt, but it's also well-known he was fighting a back injury for over half the season. He is an older player, and back problems are a concern at any age, but he only has two years left on his current deal and with the cap rising, a $6.5M cap hit isn't a big deal, especially for a team that won't be contending in the next two years. His net-front ability on the power play is still excellent and if he can bounce back health-wise, it is a low-cost acquisition that can turn around a glaring offensive problem. 

Calgary Flames

Over the last two years, on average, teams have needed 22.8 shot attempts at 5-on-5 to create one expected goal, and 23.8 attempts to create one actual goal. The Flames have been worse than both marks in each of the last two seasons, and the 2024-25 Flames were the worst team by those two measures from either of the last two campaigns:

The Flames are solid defensively, and they do generate shots well, but a lot of them are from distance and that resulted in them finishing 30th by 5-on-5 goal scoring this past season. Just being below average by 5-on-5 scoring, rather than awful, would have been enough to get them into the playoffs.

Tracking data had Calgary as the worst team in the league at using high-danger passes (across the slot or from behind the net). There is a free agent who is exceptional at creating high-danger shots for his teammates at 5-on-5, and his name is Mikael Granlund. Here is who he compares to by that measure over the last two seasons:

Of course, a lot depends on what he wants to sign for and where he wants to go. He does have his issues, particularly defensively, but he can genuinely help his teammates score, and that would be great news for guys like Nazem Kadri and Matt Coronato (and us greedy fantasy owners).

Edmonton Oilers

Assuming a long-term extension for Evan Bouchard in the $10 to $11-million AAV range (give or take a million), the Oilers won't have a lot of cap space. It puts a big free agent signing out of the question.

Believe it or not, the 2024-25 Oilers finished 14th by goal scoring at 5-on-5, two goals ahead of Philadelphia and tied with Seattle. What they need is a middle-6 winger who can score. Their depth is a big part of the postseason run, but the Oilers have five UFA wingers, so they need to replenish that depth. If there is one thing Mantha can do, it's produce at 5-on-5. Here is who he compares to by 5-on-5 goals, primary assists, and points per 60 minutes over the last four seasons (minimum of 2250 minutes):

Mantha is heading into his age-31 season and had season-ending ACL surgery in November. It isn't ideal, but that was seven months ago, so the hope is he's healthy enough for his offseason work. The question is whether he wants to go to Edmonton and what he signs for given Edmonton's limited cap space. If he's healthy and wants to go to Edmonton, he can be a boost to their depth scoring.  

Los Angeles Kings

The Los Angeles power play was a huge issue for most of the season but then turned itself around after acquiring Andrei Kuzmenko. Assuming he returns, maybe that's one problem solved.

The other problem is Los Angeles' blue line. To be clear: this was an excellent defensive team. However, their defencemen provided very little help creating offence in the zone as they had precisely one blue liner who was above average by assists on teammate scoring chances from a defenceman, and you can probably guess who it was:

If Clarke takes a big step forward next season (I think he does), that's great. It still leaves them with a blue line largely incapable of helping create offence and that's a big problem in the modern NHL. There is a defenceman who has shown well in the postseason after returning from injury, and that's John Klingberg. He is even a right-handed shot.  

Vladislav Gavrikov is the crux here because if he re-signs with the Kings, they likely just run back largely the same defence group. If Gavrikov leaves, there is a spot on their third pair, and Klingberg could help them create some more dangerous chances from the back end. 

San Jose Sharks

Here we have a team that just has to add everywhere. They finished last in the league for the second year in a row and they've averaged 53 points over the last three seasons. Over those three seasons, they are 31st by goals for per 60 minutes (only Chicago is lower) and last by goals against.

If we are to drill down on one aspect, though, it's defence. The Sharks finished with 2.49 goals-for per 60 minutes in 2024-25, which was last in the league, but 16% higher than in 2023-24. While their goals against rate also improved, it was by just 5%. This was arguably the worst defensive team in the league (Anaheim provides competition), and they traded Jake Walman at the Trade Deadline, by far their best defenceman.

To improve defensively, their blue line needs to move the puck. Per tracking from All Three Zones, here is how the Sharks defencemen compared to the league average in transition metrics like zone entries and exits per 60 minutes, carried entry percentage, percentage of exits with possession, and percentage of exits that failed:

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Trading Walman, arguably their most consistent puck-mover, will not help this. They have good young prospects on the way, but they need help now.

Maybe the Sharks try free agency for a name like Orlov or Gavrikov, and that makes sense. It also makes me wonder if a big swing in the trade market for Noah Dobson might be in the cards. Dobson is going into his age-26 season, so he'll be plenty productive as the Sharks add to the Sharks youngsters improve over the next five years. It gives them a guy who can play top-pair minutes, run the power play, and help them move the puck. He has his defensive issues, sure, but they desperately need a top puck-mover, and a big trade for Dobson makes a lot of sense as the Islanders start their re-tool phase.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle is in a very tough spot because this is a team that has a lot of good depth, but doesn't have any true game-breakers. Matty Beniers seems to be rounding into a solid two-way player, but his peak would be a Ryan O'Reilly-type, and that's if he keeps improving at both ends of the ice. Assuming Shane Wright doesn't have a supernova breakout, this team desperately needs a go-to forward who can play 20 minutes and be a difference-maker offensively.

If they hadn't signed Chandler Stephenson a year ago, maybe they would have taken a big swing in free agency, but they may be hesitant now. The one name that's out there in that regard, though, is Mitch Marner. It seems hard to believe Marner will return to Toronto, and likely commands north of $12-million a season, so a team with a lot of cap space is a likely landing spot. That is Seattle, as PuckPedia has them with nearly $20-million in space. They do need to extend Kaapo Kakko, Ryker Evans, and Tye Kartye, but Evolving Hockey contract projections have those three earning about $8-million combined next season. It would leave the Kraken with $12-million in space, which is hopefully enough for one Mitch Marner.

The Kraken struggled to create dangerous shots, finishing 29th by expected goals-for at 5-on-5, and finishing 28th by rate of high-danger passes:

They also finished in the bottom-10 by 5-on-4 goals-for and 4-on-5 goals against per 60 minutes. Marner can help in all those areas and would provide a huge boost to a forward group that desperately needs it.

Vancouver Canucks

The truth about Vancouver's offseason is that the largest positive impact that the team could have in 2025-26 is Elias Pettersson and Thatcher Demko being 100% healthy and turning back the clock two years. Consider that from the start of the 2021 Bubble season to the end of January in 2023 (when Pettersson reportedly injured his knee), Pettersson was top-20 by points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, or tied with Kirill Kaprizov. Also, from March 1st, 2023, through the end of the 2024-25 campaign, Demko was a top-5 starting goalie by goals saved above expected per 60 minutes:

If the Canucks can get Pettersson for 80 games as a top-20 player in the league, and Demko for 50 games as a top-5 goalie, that would improve the roster more than any offseason signing or trade.

The player I think Vancouver should target is Nikolaj Ehlers. He is a free agent and will carry a heavy price tag, but the contract projections mentioned earlier have him earning just $700K more per season than Brock Boeser, who is also a free agent. Over the last three years, here are the comparisons between Boeser and Ehlers in everything from surface-level production to underlying metrics:

The GAR/60 metric is Evolving Hockey's Goals Above Replacement per 60 minutes, or a measure of impact on all the different areas (offence, defence, special teams, penalty taking/drawing) combined into one number. The RAPM/60 is from the same website and measures a player's play-driving impacts, both offensively and defensively. The only edge in all these areas for Boeser is a slight edge in goals, and that's entirely driven by the fact that he had over 270 more power play minutes over the last three years than Ehlers. Adding Ehlers to a top line with a healthy Pettersson would give them an electric top scoring line.  

Vegas Golden Knights

It was a weird year from Vegas. In the regular season, they were top-8 in the league by both expected goal share and actual goal share at 5-on-5. They also finished sixth by special team goal differential (+15). They got rolled by Edmonton in the second round of the playoffs, but this was a very good Vegas team that has all their key pieces signed for at least one more year.

The note about their key pieces is important to the offseason here: Jack Eichel has one year left on his current deal. There is no guarantee he is a Vegas Golden Knight for the start of the 2026-27 season, so whatever Vegas does this summer, it should be with a short-term outlook rather than a long-term one. Given the history of this team over the last five years, it shouldn't be a big problem.

I do wonder if we've seen the end of Nicolas Hague's Vegas tenure. He is an RFA, but one year from UFA status, and Vegas has seven defencemen already signed for 2025-26. Given they need to sign a few forwards, have the defencemen taken care of, and need to watch their cap expenditures, trading Hague for a similar RFA-eligible forward that Vegas can sign to a two-year 'show-me' deal makes a lot of sense.

One trading partner could be Ottawa. Hague would give them an option on the third pair that was largely a mess in the regular season and a security blanket for Tyler Kleven. Assuming the Senators re-sign Claude Giroux, their top-9 forward group is nearly filled. They don't really need Fabian Zetterlund, and trading him for Hague would help fill a need for both them and Vegas – Hague gives Ottawa defensive depth to insulate their prospects, and Zetterlund gives Vegas a third-line scorer to use alongside either Tomas Hertl or William Karlsson. Though it all depends on his contract asking price because those projections have him at $4.8-million a season for four years. Vegas probably can't afford that, but $2-3M would work.

Another option would be the New York Rangers and Arthur Kaliyev. On the flipside, maybe with the season Alex Holtz just had, Vegas may not be too keen on taking a chance on another young-ish winger from a Tri-State team.  

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