Welcome back, welcome back, weeeelcome back in all to the world's #1 most trusted, most cited salary cap article in North America and beyond. Hope that everyone out there is having a fantastic summer!

I was asked to write my takes on some upcoming unrestricted free agents and you guys will all be shocked to find that I've had thoughts on my mind that need an outlet. Go ask anyone in my fantasy hockey chats, they'll confirm. For now, I want to focus only on players in regard to what they might be looking to sign for, and of course what that means for you for fantasy. Plus let's make an 'edumacated' guess as to where some of these guys may end up. We'll look at teams as a whole later, but for now, let's look at this summer's free agent market as the 2026 market looms on the horizon…

Before we dive in as well, I wanted to remind everyone that the salary cap was set at an $88M ceiling this past season, and will jump to $95.5M next season, and an expectation that it could rise to $104M the season after that. I wouldn't be surprised if following the 2027-'28 cap ceiling is around $115M give or take one million either way with the way things are going and the nearly $7.2 billion dollars in revenue that the league made this past season.  

Mitch Marner, 28, RW

I'm taking away all playoff performance/slow motion spit out of the mix here (even though I do think that matters) and just look at this from a dollars and cents perspective. I have to start here by pointing out that Toronto can offer him eight years on a deal, while all other clubs can only get to seven, and while I do think that's very much worth adding into the conversation here. The only way that another club could offer him an eight-year deal would be if Toronto were to trade him. The writing is probably on the wall here that 16 in blue is going to test the market, but this is a 28-year-old winger who had over 100 points this past season. It would be foolish for Toronto to not at least have a conversation here about offering him, but that offer may be smaller as opposed to what he could get on the open market, with the extra year being the leverage point of a potential deal.

I'm online almost every night that hockey is on, and of course was glued to playoffs this season, and it was hard to not see any Marner scrutiny that was out there. Again though, this is a 28-year-old player who leads this UFA class in scoring. Regardless of the memes and discourse, he's going to get paid. I've seen the $14M high-water mark out there to acquire him and while I don't 100% know if he gets that type of money, I'll tap the sign that has the future salary cap numbers. This might look like a "bad" contract now, but in a couple of seasons with a rising cap, it may be more manageable to have high-dollar players on your roster that are north of the $10M dollar mark.

For fantasy, does it really matter where he goes when we look at a point per game player? Marner is going to go in either the late first or early second round of your draft, whether he's in Toronto or elsewhere. I'm lucky this season to have been invited into my first true salary league, and while the team that I inherited doesn't have Mitch Marner on it, I can only imagine what you folks out there that have him might be looking at in terms of his new AAV. I don't think that it's a surprise here; but he's going to sign a very expensive ticket for seven seasons.

As to where he ends up, I've seen a lot of Dallas rumors floating around out there and the only way that could work would be to move Jason Robertson's money and offer Marner a balloon-type deal, but I'm leaning that it doesn't happen there for two reasons and that's time and logistics. Clubs would likely lowball Dallas on a deal and with Robertson under contract this season with an arbitration year approaching, I just don't think he moves. The serious buyers that I can see coming to the table would be Carolina and Los Angeles. I know that Vegas is mentioned a lot as well, but that's a club with just under $10M in available cap space spend this offseason with multiple contracts coming up next year. I think if anything they'll offer something, but their buying power may not be as strong as Carolina or Los Angeles, and if I'm Vegas, why not wait to hop in on next summer's class. Still, this is Vegas. As much as I'd like to think I understand how the salary cap works and the gymnastics around it, Vegas does it better than anyone else. Somehow, they'll sign Marner now, Connor McDavid in a year, take on whatever's left of the Shea Weber deal if that's a thing, and then re-sign Jack Eichel.

With all that said, let's have some fun here…what about the Columbus Blue Jackets? Hear me out: they have $40M in cap space going into this summer with only San Jose ahead of them at around $41M. They have no real money tied up in expiring UFA deals that are going to hurt them, and the important assets that they do have that are either arb eligible this offseason or are arbitration eligible a season from now. You have virtually no media pressure on you and can stay in the East with easier travel, and believe me, that matters. I'm going to have fun with this and say why not, roll the dice with Columbus. You have all the cap space in the world this season and in likelihood next offseason as well. Why not now, Columbus? Because if not now, when?

John Tavares, 34, C

From one Maple Leaf to another, let's talk John Tavares. The popular narrative out there is that the Leafs can and will bring him back on around half of his current contract so that's somewhere in the $5M dollar neighborhood, and Toronto has the space to do just that if that is the amount he signs for. Here's where I'm skeptical though. Tavares sure has maybe slowed up a bit, but this is still almost a point/game player (he may have been if he played more this season), that can fill a roll as a second-line centre. I promise, this is going to be a popular player come July 1^st; teams are going to be calling and that's only going to drive up costs. Maybe not exponentially to where we see Tavares ink another $10M+ AAV deal, but I keep going back to where the salary cap is going and what a higher offer could do to put pressure on Toronto.

In regard to fantasy, I just missed having Tavares on my club this season and even tried at one point to trade for him. Finding scoring from a second line center in fantasy is difficult, with only a handful of clubs in the league right now with that luxury with some of them being the much higher end talent like Leon Draisaitl. Tavares is a player that I would not let slip by in your draft, throw the age away, he's going to once again be a point/game player (or close to it) this season. For salary leagues, you'll get a discount on him which can elevate things if you're right up against your league's salary cap.

As to where he signs, I still in my heart of hearts think it's Toronto, but closer to the $7M dollar mark than a $5M. I know that seems high, but I've seen rumors of the Leafs giving Brad Marchand closer to $9 million at 37 and not Tavares $7 million at 34 at centre; it doesn't add up to me. If I'm Tavares I know my worth and where the numbers are moving to, this contract may surprise people by numbers more than term.

Nikolaj Ehlers, 29, LW

I'm actually surprised that while I write this totally not in the middle of a work call, that Nikolaj Ehlers has not been offered anything by the Winnipeg Jets. With each passing day as we get closer to July 1^st, if he's not at least been offered by the Jets (as we know of), then he's going to test the market. And why not? He seems to get saddled in Winnipeg with low ice time along with low power play time, just go look at the last game log against the Stars in a GAME SEVEN…Mason Appleton saw more ice time, and that just can't happen. Like Marner, the Jets can offer Ehlers eight years, while others can only get to seven which in this case, that extra year may be the difference of an entire career as opposed to potentially signing a lower ticket once his deal expires at age 36/37.

For fantasy this is dependent on where he ends up, because the ice time does scare me a bit and I know that we have him as Band-Aid Boy Certified. He's still a must-draft, don't get me wrong there, but this might be someone I'd jump up to grab early, but someone that I keep my eye on as the draft goes along. I know that's a very vanilla answer, but there's just a lot of unknowns fantasy-wise when it comes to him. I've stayed away in my league and even in DFS I hesitate to roster him because I need all I can get in 15 minutes of ice time for a usually higher daily salary.

What makes Ehlers an interesting subject this offseason, is because he's probably going to land somewhere in the $10M range and unlike Marner at near $14M, that's going to bring more buyers to the table. Now, all of a sudden, along with Carolina and Los Angeles if they miss out on Marner, you have buyers like Chicago, Columbus, and I want to throw the Rangers and Utah in there as well. Ehlers is a good two-way player that the longer he stays on the market, the more clubs are going to want to come to the table. I think what happens here is there will be a period where his camp waits to see what Marner gets (rising tide lifts all boats), and then makes a decision. I can see clubs pivoting to him quickly if they miss out on Marner, but I just keep coming back to Utah…throw him $10M and show him off in the new home sweaters. Let's get on the map, Utah! I'm for having fun here and don't mind the fit either.  

Sam Bennett, 29, C

Mr. Conn Smythe just hit free agency at the perfect time. Seriously, has anyone ever won the Conn Smythe on their UFA season? Still, let's pump the brakes a bit here. This ties right into fantasy, as I rostered Bennett this season and he was excellent for me…but more the hits/blocks and occasional offense. This is a player who has missed time for injury in the past, and there were times this season where the power play time was low while being the third line center…or top if Barkov missed time.

Let's fast-forward to league night for this one. You're sitting there at your draft party still on your first beverage of choice and the pizza is still warm when you see that Bennett was taken very early. It's just going to happen; I promise that's going to be the case. For salary leagues…well let's talk numbers.

I doubt, and I mean really doubt, that Bennett commands $10M+ a season, I really do. That type of money, to me, means that you can really drive offense, and Bennett sometimes struggles with that. This is also a controversial player, just ask any Toronto fan or fans of about seven other clubs. I get that the cap is going up here, but Jack Eichel makes $10M a season…are we sure that Sam Bennett is going to command that as well? Again, a player that I really like, I've had him in fantasy multiple times but this to me is a player that signs for at or around what he's currently at around $8M a season, the term to me, would also be longer. A player like this at 29 I'd have a hard time seeing take a bridge deal to sign for a higher AAV at say 34/35. As for there "where" …I mean, it has to be Florida, right? This is going to make some people mad, but Florida again is healthy salary cap-wise and can afford to keep Bennett on their payroll for around the same dollar amount as to where he's been. This is related, but just some great advice I've gotten in my life was this – "Don't leave where you're celebrating" …that could be a job, place that you live, relationship, winning a Stanley Cup for the second season in a row, whatever the case may be, it applies here. I think Bennett is right back on the Panthers next season.

Brad Marchand, 37, RW

I'm going to start this one off on the fantasy end, the name value still holds weight, but this is a player that could be seeing checking line minutes on a good team come October, and let's not forget, also a player that is going into his age 38 season after missing time this past year following the trade to Florida. If it were me, in smaller leagues I would let this pick go to someone else, and in larger leagues it would have to be need-based.

As for where he ends up, I mean…do have a coin on you? I could see Florida, sure on maybe a one-year Tom Brady deal, or he just off and signs with the highest bidder. I'm actually lost on this one you guys, I'm going to say Florida for $3M but you could tell me any club in the league and I might believe you.

Brock Boeser, 28, RW

Alright, it's time to have a Brock Boeser investor all-call. If you're like me and rostered Boeser in your main league we had some good times, and we had some not so good times. Despite the locker room issues for Vancouver, there were a few good nights in there for those rostering Boeser but by and large, this was a down season for him. The skating declined a bit along with the playmaking, and if the rumors were true that Vancouver offered him $8M a season, then maybe he should have grabbed that money now. If that number was confirmed too, I apologize…years of watching hockey and nightly DFS have started to slowly deteriorate my memory. It all blends in. McDavid is still on a line with Zach Kassian.

I'm not saying that I wouldn't roster Boeser in fantasy again, I absolutely would, but right wing looks to be a deep position again this season and if that's the case, I can maybe wait a bit in my draft to get him late. He's perfectly tradeable in leagues, that's how I got him last season and floated him around in deals before our deadline.

As for where to sign, Boeser has my favorite free agent rumor narrative. Minnesota because, "He's from there" …yes. Him and about a quarter of the NHL. To me I'll roll the dice here and say Boston. I wrote in my final Capped in the regular season that Boston has the ability to get creative this offseason and maybe this is a start to doing so. While I'm hoping that we can see the 70-point season he had in 2023-'24, I think it's more realistic to see him in the mid to upper 50's.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.