It's a little strange doing Ramblings for the day after free agency opens, as all of the news is pretty well covered in other fantasy take articles (which you can find here). Cliffy did an awesome job basically covering the whole day himself, so stick taps to him.
It’s also a little too early to give overall favourites, and winner/loser takes for free agency, with Nikolaj Ehlers still yet to sign, and Pius Suter still likely to be vastly overpaid. Today I’m mainly going to focus on the news from the draft weekend, and save the overall free agency talk for next week.
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I will say that I do like what San Jose has started to do this summer, bringing in a few players on short-term deals that can fill in around the edges, help the team be a bit more competitive, but also end up being trade bait in February to bring in more assets. All three of their moves today, between Philip Kurashev, John Klingberg, and Alex Nedeljkovic, only cost them a third-round pick and some cap space they weren't using.
In a few months, they can re-sell those players for more, and then end up farther ahead (asset-wise) than they were in June. That's how you manage a team through aa rebuild, and that's how you allow your team to make a step or two forward when the young core is ready. Obviously most of their young players aren’t ready to anchor a playoff team at this point, but this is the best way to grow them into being ready is to help prop them up to that level of competition for a while. Take notes dynasty managers.
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It's nice that the Canucks seem to have some confidence in Thatcher Demko, as indicated by the three-year extension, with a big $8.5 AAV. It bodes well for the outlook of him hopefully staying healthy, which is the biggest knock on him at the moment. If he is healthy then he has a real claim to being a top-five goalie in the league. Not great news for Kevin Lankinen owners, and it begs the question as to why the Canucks felt they had to sign him to such a big contract.
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Looking at the draft, the first couple of picks didn’t really have any surprises, with the Islanders landing their new franchise defenceman in Matthew Schaefer, the Sharks taking the top offensive player in Michael Misa, and the Blackhawks betting on the size and skill of Anton Frondell to best complement their deep prospect pool in the long run.
We could see Schaefer break camp with the Isles this year, as there is room on the left side of their D-core after Alexander Romanov and Adam Pelech. However, Isaiah George would do well on the third pair, so it all comes down to whether Schaefer is ready. The Isles aren’t ready to compete next year, and Schaefer is one of the youngest players in his draft class. Having also lost most of a key developmental year to a broken collarbone, another season in juniors might really help him take off.
All in all, I think it makes the most sense for the Isles not to rush Schaefer here, and let him dominate in the minor leagues for one more season before turning pro. What they do about their left side in the future remains up in the air though, as Pelech still has four years left on his deal, George is only 21, and Romanov just signed an eight-year extension.
When it comes to Misa and the Sharks, I also expect him to be given a year or two to marinate. Will Smith was given a similar treatment, and that trajectory seems reasonable for Misa as well as a similarly skilled and sized player. The Sharks certainly have no reason to rush Misa either, and that's probably best for him to be able to hit his offensive ceiling which is likely the highest of anyone from the 2025 draft.
Over in Chicago, Anton Frondell could be a bit of a different story, having pro experience already over in Sweden where he scored at an elite level even without taking into account he was a draft-eligible player. With the Blackhawks not exactly being flush with competition for spots in the top-nine, there is a real path for Frondell to stake out a spot and thrive as early as fall of 2025.
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Running down the rest of the top-10, picks four and five in the draft will likely be better in multi-category setups, and neither Brady Martin (Nashville) or Caleb Desnoyers (Utah) would be reliable bets to make the team next year.
After going sixth overall to Philadelphia, Porter Martone could make the Flyers at least to start, especially with middle-six winger Tyson Foerster a possibility to miss the beginning of the season due to an elbow infection (hopefully we’ll have a better timeline on that soon).
James Hagens should go back to college for a year or two, but could be a late season addition for the Bruins anytime now, and might have the second-highest ceiling of all the forwards. As great as it would have been for him to have Gabe Perreault and Ryan Leonard flanking him last year, I’m curious to see if he can rise without them stealing the spotlight, becoming the focus of all of his team’s offence, and having his stock fly back up again into that elite tier of upper echelon prospects.
Jake O’Brien is likely a little farther away from the NHL, and has some work to do on his skating in addition to just gaining some muscle and maturity, but he's someone I like as a top-six fantasy option in the draft here. Being in Seattle should give him some good players to play alongside in Shane Wright, Berkley Catton, and Matty Beniers, without blocking him from a spot on a scoring line once he’s ready.
Radim Mrtka isn’t someone I’m too interested in fantasy (maybe after pick 15 or so), because you have to be ready for a very long wait on someone who has a wide range of who they would actually become as a player.
Roger McQueen is an awesome prospect that just needs to prove he’s healthy before we can really consider him a blue-chipper. I like Anaheim as a landing spot for him as well, as he could be a top-line winger, or a middle-six centre behind Leo Carlsson where he doesn’t have to take the hard matchups. His timeline could line up well with the new contract of Mikhael Granlund expiring in three years.
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Some more quick hits looking down the rest of the draft list:
Pittsburgh is a great landing spot for Ben Kindel, as there's not much stopping him from making the jump in a year or two, right into the top-six.
I really like Carter Bear, and I do think he's what Detroit needs, but it’s tough to know exactly what their team is going to look like in 3-4 years when he's ready to make an impact.
Columbus is a tough spot for Jackson Smith, as there's a real barricade ahead of him on defence. It makes me wonder whether Denton Mateychuk is moved in the next year or so, to bring in some more star power at forward.
The Islanders landing a top-10 talent in Victor Eklund at #16 was excellent for them. It’s a great landing spot for Eklund too as the Isles have only a few top-of-the-lineup pieces in place, and only two or three top prospects to compete with.
As a Nashville fan, I thought their best pick of the draft was Cameron Reid, and I think he has a real shot to be the #2 Dman from the whole class after Schaefer.
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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean, as that's now my primary platform.