Ramblings: Mantha Signs in Pittsburgh; Mangiapane to Edmonton; Soderblom Stays in Detroit; Marner’s Fantasy Value in Vegas – July 3

Michael Clifford

2025-07-03

While this may not have been the most impactful offseason of the last 10 years, there was one of the most impactful trades of the last decade with Mitch Marner heading to Vegas in a sign-and-trade from Toronto. At the time of the trade, Brennan had his thoughts on the deal here.

Today, I want to give my fantasy hockey thoughts on the deal because this one has a lot of ramifications. There may not have been a single trade more impactful trade since Matthew Tkachuk went to Florida.

First is usage. Brennan alluded to the fact that Marner could be used on the second line with Tomas Hertl and I think that's something we will see at times throughout the year. If I had to bet, sitting here today, I think Marner will see a lot more time with Eichel. That should help manage the drop in ice time that could come. Keep in mind that Marner has surpassed 21 minutes a game in each of the past three seasons and averaged 21:17 per game in that time. That is sixth among all forwards over that span and second among wingers. He likely stays as one of the most-used wingers in the league, but for a guy who doesn't put up huge peripheral stats, any ice-time drop is suboptimal.

The next question is how things go next to Eichel. As good as Eichel is – and he's a bona fide top-line star centre – he is not Auston Matthews. Matthews is first in the league by goals scored per 60 minutes (1.86) over the last three years and Eichel is 49th at 1.25 goals per 60 minutes. The gap between those two rates of goals per game, assuming an 82-game season and 21 minutes per game, is about 18 goals. Marner typically averages an assist on 52% of the goals scored with him on the ice, so that's nine fewer assists right off the top. Of course, it won't work exactly that way, but Marner averages just over 100 points every 82 games skating to one of the two best goal scorers to enter the league over the last 15 years, so going anywhere else is going to hurt.

Then there is the question of how Marner fares away from Matthews just in general. At 5-on-5 across the last four seasons, Toronto generated more shots and more expected goals when Matthews was on the ice without Marner, and the actual goals scored declined just 3%. Conversely, Toronto's rate of shots, expected goals, and goals scored declined considerably when Marner was on the ice without Matthews:

Of course, a lot of the time that Marner wasn't next to Matthews, it was William Nylander instead, and the drop off from Marner to Nylander isn't as large as the drop off from Matthews to John Tavares. And Eichel is an improvement over Tavares, so that's good news for Marner. The top line in Vegas will still be excellent offensively with Marner next to Eichel, it will just be very hard to replicate what he and Matthews did.

Finally, there is the question of the power play. Across Eichel's first three seasons, Vegas scored 7.36 goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage as the team shot 12.4% with him on the ice in those situations. That spiked to 13.4 goals/60 and 19.21% team shooting in 2024-25. Vegas's top PP unit was truly elite, but it's a question whether they can maintain that rate or if it reverts back closer to what it was the three years prior. To see how this might change, I went to Evolving Hockey and looked at the following:

  • Regular PP forwards from 2020-2023 who had an on-ice goal rate under the median mark of the league (around 8.25 goals-for/60). A cut-off mark of 400 PP minutes with the same team gave us 105 forwards and a median goals-for mark of 8.25/60 cut that list down even further.  
  • Taking those forwards and seeing whose on-ice PP goals-for rate increased at least 25% with the same team in 2023-24. That cut our list way down to five forwards: Nick Schmaltz, Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, William Karlsson, and Mathew Barzal.
  • Seeing what happened to those five forwards on the power play in 2024-25.

The good news is three of the five players saw an even further increase on the power play when compared to 2023-24, and the only monster decline came from Barzal, who played just 30 games:

Of course, this isn't a rigorous mathematical approach because we'd have to go back 15 years to get a better idea, but just because the Vegas PP spiked in 2024-25 compared to recent history doesn't mean it'll decline.

What I will point out is that the two success stories in Arizona/Utah and New Jersey were rosters laden with young players who've matured. That is absolutely not the case with Vegas so it's far from a guarantee the success will be replicated, but there are reasons to be optimistic here.

As for the impact on others, the first question is what the PP unit looks like. Shea Theodore will be on the blue line, Eichel is a staple, and they're not paying Marner $12M a season to skate on the second PP unit. When Mark Stone is healthy, he'll be on that unit, too. My guess is the fourth forward is Tomas Hertl because he's a left-handed centre who can complement Eichel's right-handedness. That leaves Pavel Dorofeyev on the outside looking in, which is a terrible break for his fantasy value considering he had the second-highest PP goal-scoring rate on a 60-minute basis (4.42), trailing only Patrik Laine (5.95), in 2024-25. That puts another 30-goal season in doubt for Dorofeyev.

It also raises the question of what happens to the Toronto power play. They often ran a five-forward PP unit in 2024-25. With Marner gone, and the only forwards brought in so far being Matias Maccelli, Nicolas Roy, and Michael Pezzetta, do they go back to a four-forward/one defenceman setup? That would be great news for Morgan Rielly. Or do they give someone like Maccelli, Max Domi, or Bobby McMann a chance? Maybe they try to replace Marner's playmaking with one of Maccelli or Domi. We'll find out in training camp, I guess.

Truth be told, I think the biggest beneficiary of this entire trade, from a fantasy hockey perspective, is Tomas Hertl. He remains the second centre behind Eichel, but he's keeping his top PP role, and he'll get either Marner or Stone as a regular right winger at even strength. My guess is it's Stone, but either way, Hertl will get the best winger he's had to skate with since Joe Pavelski a decade ago. Hertl quietly had a 32-goal, 61-point season last year and my bet is that he replicates the production or it gets even better this year.

Marner will be just fine fantasy-wise in Vegas. While I don't think he'll crack 100 points again, banking on a 90-point season seems reasonable. My projections won't be done for a couple months so I don't have a firm opinion on it, but I still think this is nothing but great news for Hertl and Rielly.

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Looking elsewhere for Wednesday's news, Pittsburgh signed forward Anthony Mantha to a one-year deal:

Mantha was off to a solid start in Calgary with four goals and seven points in 13 games before a torn ACL ended his season. He gets a chance to recoup some value in Pittsburgh before the Pens move him at the Trade Deadline. His fantasy value will largely depend on what happens with Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell because skating next to Sidney Crosby is the only way Mantha truly has fantasy relevance in most leagues.

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Andrew Mangiapane also moved yesterday, heading to Edmonton on a two-year contract with an AAV of $3.6M. It has been a while since his 35-goal season, and though he hasn't even reached 20 goals since that career year, he scored 0.84 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in 2022-23, a solidly second-line rate, a low-end second-line rate. Those two years sandwich a poor 2023-24 season, but now he's in Edmonton and with both Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson moving on, and Jeff Skinner still not signed, Mangiapane could very well fill a second-line winger role next to Leon Draisaitl. He won't get top PP time, but he might get an elite centre to skate with at even strength, and that's something.

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Former Los Angeles winger Arthur Kaliyev has a new home:

Kaliyev played just 14 games in 2024-25 due to injury, and it was with the New York Rangers, but he also scored very well in his limited action with three goals in those 14 games while skating just 11:13 per night. The issue with going to Ottawa is they have a third line of Michael Amadio, Shane Pinto, and Ridly Greig that the coaching staff really seems to like, and each of Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, Tim Stutzle, and Claude Giroux are locks for the top-6. That leaves one spot open, likely on the second line, for one of Kaliyev, David Perron, and Fabian Zetterlund. Two of those players are going to be relegated to the fourth line, so Kaliyev is in tough to have any fantasy value even if he plays well.

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Detroit signed forward Elmer Soderblom to a two-year deal. He hasn't really taken off yet either in the AHL or the NHL, but by my viewings, he looked like he belonged the more he played with the Red Wings this past season. He turns 24 years old this week and has two years to prove himself. It isn't a great scoring environment for him, being kept in the middle-6 and second PP unit at best, but he's a player whose development we should monitor over the next year or two.

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