One signing I missed during free agent frenzy was Logan Stankoven being extended by Carolina for eight years with an average annual value of $6M. Stankoven has 136 career NHL games including playoffs and has 28 goals and 40 assists in those games. He is going into his age-22 season and this contract doesn't kick in for another year, so this carries him through his age-30 season and his entire prime.

*Note: I wrote this all Thursday morning before Ehlers had signed. There is still a lot of reason to be bullish on Stankoven, just not for a little while. My write-up on the Ehlers signing can be found here.

Looking under the hood with tracking data from AllThreeZones, and Stankoven immediately stands out. Across the last two regular seasons, there are over 340 forwards with at least 300 minutes tracked at 5-on-5. Of those 340 forwards, this is the entire list of wingers who are at least one standard deviation above average (roughly the top 16% of forwards in the sample, or comfortably a top-line rate) by the following measures:

• Scoring Chance Assists per 60 minutes, or how often a player assists on a teammate's scoring chance (SCA/60)
• Scoring Chance Contributions per 60 minutes, or those chance assists plus a player's individual scoring chances (SCC/60
• Zone Entries per 60 minutes

While Stankoven is at the bottom of this list by both chance creation measures, and second-last by zone entries, just look at those names. It is a veritable who's-who of high-production wingers in the league, and the youngest player aside from Stankoven is four years older than him (Martin Necas). To even be close to this company at his age is outstanding, and it's why there are such high hopes for his production in the future.

It isn't as if it's out of nowhere, either. Stankoven had 29 goals in 59 games in the WHL has a 16-year-old. For comparison, that same year, Dylan Guenther had 26 goals in 58 games. In Stankoven's rookie AHL season, he scored 24 goals in 47 games as a 20-year-old. This budding star has a long history of great production at lower levels, and he's doing a lot to drive high levels of production early in his NHL career.

Of course, the great production hasn't gotten there yet. A big reason was he shot 6.1% at 5-on-5 in 2024-25, which was 303^rd out of 325 regular forwards in the NHL. Across his 102 regular season games, he's shot 6.8% at 5-on-5 with 1.03 expected goals per 60 minutes. I wanted to see if anyone fit that kind of profile, so I went back to 2007 and looked for forwards who had over 100 games played in their age 19-21 seasons, averaged at least 1.0 expected goals per 60 minutes, but shot under 9%. One name stood out:

Jeff Skinner seems like a fair comparison here. Skinner is a bit taller, but under 6'0 and, after a strong debut, had a couple down seasons before the goal scoring took off in his fourth year. It may take Stankoven another year to get there, but given the underlying tracking data we showed, and the flashes he's displayed already, it seems like he's on his way to doing the same.

Between the regular season and playoffs, Stankoven scored 10 goals in 34 games for Carolina, doing so skating under 15:30 per game. That is a 24-goal pace in a full season while skating middle-6 minutes, and doing so as a 21-year-old. There is a lot to like here and while the trepidation around him being 5'8 is understandable, we are coming off a postseason where 5'9 Brad Marchand was a supernova for Florida, and two years removed from 5'9 Jonathan Marchessault being the playoff MVP for the Stanley Cup-winning Vegas Golden Knights. The entire team can't be under 6'0 tall, but Stankoven's height does not preclude him from finding a lot of success.

Where Stankoven will run into trouble offensively is the team around him. Carolina is an excellent squad, but after Sebastian Aho, there just aren't great offensive centres for Stankoven to play with. He will also be stuck playing behind Seth Jarvis, so he won't get elite rates of ice time, and whenever Jarvis is on the top line, Stankoven won't be playing with Aho. That hurts his value.

This is a long-term bet for Carolina, and one that seems to have a good chance of paying off. Fantasy managers have to look at it the same way. There is every reason to think he can be a 20-goal, 40-point player right now. The question is how high the ceiling is, and it'll be a few years before Stankoven gets there, so fantasy managers need to take the long-term outlook as well. Expecting 30 goals and 70 points right now is unrealistic, but in 2-3 years? It is absolutely in the cards.

*

Brent Burns signed with Colorado on a one-year deal. You can read Ian's fantasy take here.

This is probably the end of Burns's true fantasy relevance. He doesn't hit much anymore, his block rates have been declining with his drop in ice time, and he turned 40 years old back in March. Burns signed with a team that gives him a good chance at a Stanley Cup, but he's also going to a team where he's behind Cale Makar and Devon Toews, and probably Samuel Girard as well. That means somewhere between 17-19 minutes a game with, at best, secondary power play time. Maybe he puts up 30 points, but the lack of peripherals gives him very marginal fantasy value.

*

The New York Islanders signed another Russian free agent, one year after landing Maxim Tsyplakov, but signing Maxim Shabanov. Dobber's fantasy take here gives a dive into what this means.

It seems a longshot that Shabanov stands out immediately. He clearly has high offensive skill, but he's also 5'8 and translating those skills to the top league in the world. He is also doing that on an Islanders team that was 19^th by 5-on-5 goal rate last year. The Islanders also signed Jonathan Drouin, still have Anders Lee and Anthony Duclair, and that means a lot of competition for meaningful ice time. Even middle-6 minutes with secondary power-play time on this roster won't produce a lot of points. Unless he blows the doors off quickly, it's an uphill battle for him to be fantasy-relevant outside of dynasty formats or deep one-year leagues.

*

The St. Louis Blues signed Pius Suter to a two-year deal with a $4M AAV. Alex had a write-up on the fantasy impact here.

For me, this falls into the 'better in real life than fantasy' bucket. I think Suter is the ideal third-line centre for a team hoping not only to reach the playoffs again but maybe win a round or two. He is also versatile in that he doesn't have to play centre, so if the Blues want to shift him to left wing for some games, he can do that. But he's stuck behind Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn as centres, behind Pavel Buchnevich on left wing, and if Dylan Holloway builds off his breakout season, Suter is behind him, too. He seems locked into a third-line role barring injury, and that means marginal production and peripherals.

*

I'm kind of intrigued by Gustav Nyquist heading to Winnipeg. Right now, it seems like he'd slot into Nikolaj Ehlers's role on the second line, but part of me wonder if they don't try him on the top line and move Gabriel Vilardi down to balance things a bit. Nyquist had a bad season in 2024-25, but he also did that playing for Nashville and Minnesota, teams that finished last and second-last by 5-on-5 goal scoring. The three years before that, he had very good playmaking and decent goal-scoring rates. He turns 36 years old in September, so maybe age will finally catch up with him, but he’s going to a much better scoring environment than where he was last year. He won't have relevance in shallow or mid-sized formats, but he absolutely can be a 15-goal and 50-point guy.