It's not fantasy relevant news at this point, but Gavin McKenna choosing to go the NCAA route, and signing to play with Penn State is certainly intriguing and has a lot of ripple effects. He's going to a program that wasn't one of the leaders last year, but he now has the opportunity to elevate the entire program, while developing in a more structured environment that allows the players more access to working out in-season, and theoretically better preparing them for their impending NHL debut.

This will have an impact on other players who may decide they are best off by moving through the NCAA ranks. This could have an effect (however small) of reducing the quality of competition in the CHL, and boosting the NCAA level. Maybe something to take into account when evaluating prospects over the next number of years, both anecdotally and through cross-league equivalency numbers.

The Penn State team specifically this year is likely going to have a LOT of eyes on them. It could be a good chance to have a prospect of yours gain some notoriety in the spotlight, and then flip them on a high note at the end of the year, before Gavin McKenna leaves – odds are he's one-and-done in the NCAA, starting in the NHL in the fall of 2026. Unfortunately, at this time, Penn State doesn't have a ton of NHL-quality prospects. Recent draftee Jackson Smith is the most notable one, and could really take off quarterbacking an offence led by McKenna. Luke Misa is the next most-notable name, and might be a good early-season stash for much deeper dynasty leagues. In net, there are two relatively young goalies, but it looks like the favourite to be the starter would be Senators draft pick Kevin Reigler, who has some NCAA experience, and at six-foot-six is the bigger of the two 20-year-old goalies.

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The NHL and NHLPA have officially ratified their new four-year Collective bargaining agreement, which comes into effect next summer. This means 84-game seasons, playoff salary caps, and a whole bunch of smaller tweaks that don't really have any impact on the fantasy game.

The biggest thing is that we can breathe a sigh of relief, as there won't be any lockouts until at least 2030.

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Now that most of the "big" names are off the free agent board, and we have had some time to settle in, I wanted to take this chance to review who I thought the best and worst signings were from a fantasy perspective. That's a loose definition, and it could mean for the player, the team, or some other version of why they are (or are not) my favourites.

Here are three good ones:

Nikolaj Ehlers (LW) – Carolina Hurricanes

I like this signing because the Hurricanes fit with the kind of system that you want Nik Ehlers to be playing. One with solid transition, lots of shots and offence, plus a balanced approach to the lines. Ehlers has shown he can be productive in limited minutes, but has also had injury troubles. The way to get the best out of him is then likely to bump his minutes a little, but not to overstretch his limits by playing him over 20 minutes a night. Carolina can and will want to do just that, helping him and the team find a new level.

They have Jackson Blake in the top-six who is an easy one to bump down the lineup a little as he grows into a more responsible overall player. From a team perspective, it's a perfect fit with the identity they have going right now, which is a bonus for fantasy owners hoping Carolina maintains their regular season success, but it might continue to limit them in the postseason.

There was also a substack post I read yesterday that relates well to Ehlers, and was just a fascinating read about those with positive underlying numbers and how they are handled.

https://puckovertheglass.substack.com/p/do-analytics-darlings-scale-up-the

Maxim Shabanov (LW/RW) – New York Islanders

Every year it seems there's at least one KHL player who comes over to the NHL, and we have no idea how to value their potential impact. Well, the Islanders have a few key things going for them which could help Shabanov adjust and thrive here. They already have a few other Russians on the team, which will help the transition, and they also have ample opportunity for Shabanov to grab a top-six spot. Jonathan Drouin's addition adds another top-six winger, but it's still not too much to smother Shabanov's value. If Mathew Barzal can get back to producing like a first-line centre, then the offensive minutes that those couple of smaller offensive players could be sheltered into for the Islanders might be a very high percentage. It will certainly be a different make up than the Islanders teams from the last few years.

Jakob Pelletier (LW) – Calgary Flames

This is an awesome low-cost bet for the Lightning, getting a former first-round draft pick signed at league minimum dollars from his age-24 season through past his 27^th birthday. Pelletier was recently a point-per-game player at the AHL level, and still hasn't even played 100 games in the NHL. Despite being 24, there is developmental runway left here, and the Lightning could have an offensive weapon for their second line by the end of this. Now, Pelletier being three inches under the six-foot mark might be part of why he hasn't gotten a great shot at the NHL, his underlying numbers are very solid, and the Lightning have enough big bodies that they don't have to worry about one or two shorter players giving the other team an overall physical edge.

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Honourable mentions to Niklaus Perbix, Evgenii Dadonov, Andrew Mangiapane

Perbix is another analytics darling who is going to get a larger role, and he's being paid under $3 million to show that he really is a top-four defenceman. Dadonov is a very cheap contract for a guy who really helps the offence in a middle-six role, and Andrew Mangiapane is exactly the kind of bet EDM should be making on someone that can explode next to Connor McDavid.

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Now, onto the bad side of things:

Gustav Nyquist (RW) – Winnipeg Jets

Winnipeg is losing one of their best play-driving forwards and they're replacing him with a few 35+ signings in Jonathan Toews and Nyquist. As Nyquist is the winger he's the one that they might look to in order to fill some of those Ehlers-sized holes. Unfortunately, banking on a 36-year-old to regain the form and production they had in their early 30s is usually a losing battle. Giving them more than $3 million to make that bet, is probably not a great option.

Despite being fed over 17 minutes a game for the first three quarters of the season, Nyquist paced for less than 30 points. Playing for a Winnipeg team where he likely won't be lining up alongside a Ryan O'Reilly and Filip Forsberg-type tandem, another sub-30-point season is likely in the cards.

I also think that the Jets will fall off more than people expect this year. They're a wildcard team (behind Dallas, Colorado, and Minnesota), and not a division leader.

Brian Dumoulin (D) / Cody Ceci (D) / Anton Forsberg (G)

What is LA doing with these signings? Overpaying two big defencemen just to pretend they're top-four options when they don't play like it? Ceci especially got absolutely exposed in the Oilers series, so it's strange that the Kings would target that so that they could get over the hump of… beating the Oilers.

On top of that, they overpaid a backup goalie in a goalie-saturated market, just to get one who is no better than they cheap backup that they let walk, and maybe a bit more injury-prone.

It's also completely blocking the development of some of their players, to the point that they gave away Jordan Spence. Goaltender Erik Portillo is the other player I was excited to see maybe get a shot this year to see 20 starts while being mentored by Kuemper. Portillo has been great at the AHL level for the last two years, allowed only one goal against in his only NHL start, and is turning 25 later this summer, which is the age where most goalies begin to break into the NHL. If Kumeper misses time, then I could see Portillo carrying the load instead of Forsberg.

Tanner Jeannot (LW) – Boston Bruins

The Bruins now have 15 forwards on one-way contracts, plus Fraser Minten and Matthew Poitras on their ELCs. They have the budget version of Tanner Jeannot on their roster already in Jeffery Viel, and they just finished last in their division. What was the idea behind giving Jeannot middle-six money after he has paced for about 20 points in each of the last three seasons?

If anyone can explain this signing to me, then I'm all ears. To me it just buries the Bruins further into the basement, gives them less cap flexibility to climb out of it, and stifles the growth of the younger players that they need to grow into meaningful roles, because their farm system is so depleted already.

I would be really worried if I was a Jeremy Swayman owner, as help isn't coming anytime soon, and it's going to be a long few years wanting more out of a player that is supposed to be a top-tier goalie.  

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Honourable mentions to Connor Brown, Christian Dvorak

Brown is a little better than Jeannot, but the term and the amount is much more than he's worth. For Dvorak, the AAV is jarring, but at the same time I get it for Philly who knows they are going to be bad, needs some help mentoring and carrying the tough minutes, and had cap space to spend anyways.

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I'll be off next week, but if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.