Analytics Advantage: Where Shots and Goals Come From, Including Thompson, Guentzel, Draisaitl, Scheifele, and More

Stas Pupkov

2025-08-14

This week's edition takes a step back from my usual deep dive for a broader look at where shots and goals are coming from across the league. Using shot location and scoring data from MoneyPuck.com, I've built a set of visuals and tables that break down scoring volume, shooting efficiency, and where the league's top goal scorers generate their offense. From league-wide scoring rates by game state, to how goal probability shifts with distance and shot type, to individual scoring maps for this season's most dangerous shooters, the idea is to start mapping the patterns that drive goals in today's NHL. The plan is to build on this framework in future editions, refining the visuals and adding more context along the way.

The first table breaks scoring down by game state, showing shots, goals, goal rates, expected goal averages, and on-goal rates. As expected, most attempts come at 5-on-5 (95,308 shots, 5.89% conversion), followed by 5-on-4 power plays (14,942 shots, 9.91%). Interestingly, 4-on-5 shorthanded situations, have a higher goal rate (7.27%) than 5-on-5 and the highest on-goal rate of any state (79.42%) despite far fewer attempts (2,571), reflecting the odd-man rushes that can develop while killing penalties. Four-on-four play sits at 8.03%, while 3-on-3 delivers the highest efficiency at 14.40%, fueled by open ice and frequent breakaways.

The goal probability vs. distance by shot type chart adds context to how efficiency changes depending on both location and shot selection. Close to the net, backhands and wrist shots dominate – quick releases in tight make them especially dangerous. Wraparounds appear only within a few feet of the crease. Moving further out, snapshots become the most effective option just outside the high-danger area. Around 30 feet, slapshots overtake other shot types in efficiency thanks to their speed and power, while beyond that range, deflections and tips become the most effective way to beat a goalie, using redirection to find the back of the net.

The distance landmarks rink chart pairs with this view to show exactly where those ranges fall in a real-game context. By mapping out the key scoring zones, from the crease and slot to the high slot and blue line, it's easier to see why certain shot types emerge as the best option at specific distances. Together, the two visuals give both the raw efficiency curve and the spatial perspective, making it clear how shot selection changes as you move away from the net.

From a team perspective, Edmonton and Florida led the league in both shot volume (4,500+) and goals (320+), with Carolina and Dallas also ranking among the top generators. Washington paired high shot totals with an above-average conversion rate, while Vegas, Toronto, and Tampa Bay topped 7% shooting efficiency despite lower volume. At the other end, San Jose, Nashville, and Anaheim struggled to create and convert, posting the league's lowest goal percentages.

Top Goal Scorers: Where the Goals Come From

To wrap things up, here's a look at the league's top ten goal scorers (excluding empty-netters) and exactly where their goals came from. Most do their damage from the slot or net-front, but each has distinct tendencies, from Leon Draisaitl's heavy power-play presence to Alex Ovechkin's trademark left-circle one-timer, to Sam Reinhart's rare shorthanded scoring touch. These maps link raw totals to the "how" and "where" behind each goal and offer a clear visual of each player's scoring profile.

Alex Ovechkin – 41 Goals

Ovechkin's map is exactly what you'd expect: heavy concentration in the left faceoff circle on the power play, with plenty of one-timers from his trademark spot. At 5-on-5, he still produces from the slot and net-front, but his power-play left-circle blast remains the defining feature.

Brayden Point – 41 Goals

Point's scoring comes overwhelmingly from in tight. Most goals are clustered around the crease and low slot, split between 5-on-5 and the power play. His knack for finding soft space near the blue paint makes him a constant tap-in and rebound threat.

David Pastrnak – 39 Goals

Pastrňák’s map shows a mix of mid-slot finishes and left-circle blasts, especially on the power play. He is equally dangerous on the rush or set up in the offensive zone, with several one-timers from his off-wing mirroring Ovechkin's left-side game.

Jake Guentzel – 41 Goals

Guentzel thrives in high-traffic areas. Nearly all of his goals are within a stick length of the crease, with a dense cluster on both the forehand and backhand side of the goalie. His positioning makes him a constant rebound and deflection option.

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Kyle Connor – 43 Goals

Connor's distribution is balanced with slot finishes, sharp-angle goals, and a few longer-range wrist shots. He converts both off the rush and in set plays, with a notable number from the inner slot at 5-on-5 and quick-release shots on the power play.

Leon Draisaitl – 61 Goals

Draisaitl's map is loaded in the inner slot and net-front, with an unusually high share on the power play. His backhand finishes from the goalmouth and sharp passing lane one-timers from the right circle stand out, showing both hands and positioning are elite tools.

Mark Scheifele – 41 Goals

Scheifele's goals come from a strong blend of net-front positioning and right-circle shooting lanes. At 5-on-5, he often capitalizes from the inner slot, while on the power play, his right-side release is a primary weapon.

Sam Reinhart – 44 Goals

Reinhart's map shows an overwhelming net-front bias. Nearly all of his tallies are within a few feet of the crease, whether tapping in rebounds or redirecting shots. His ability to arrive at the perfect time in the low slot makes him one of the league's best at "garbage goals" that still require elite skill.

Tage Thompson – 42 Goals

Thompson's shot locations are more spread out than most scorers, with a heavy mix of mid- and high-slot goals alongside net-front finishes. His long reach and powerful shot allow him to beat goalies clean from distance, but he also cashes in close when driving the net.

Closing Thoughts

By layering league-wide scoring trends with individual player maps, we start to see not just who is scoring, but how and where they're doing it. The different profiles, from net-front specialists to perimeter snipers, highlight the variety of ways goals are generated in today's NHL. As seasons progress, these patterns will shift with changes in deployment, special teams strategies, and player form.

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