There was an article over the weekend from Mark Spector at Sportsnet regarding Zach Hyman's status as he recovers from that wrist injury he suffered in the playoffs. Spector interviews Hyman, who says he is still rehabbing his wrist and that he has yet to start shooting pucks. There is no firm timeline or anything, but considering training camps start next week, it seems likely he doesn't start the regular season on time, and Allan Mitchell of The Athletic wrote that Hyman may not return until sometime in November.

This is all pretty notable because the Dobber Schedule Planner tells us that through the first four weeks of the season – October 7^th until November 4^th – Edmonton is tied for the most games played in the league with 15. That means Hyman could return 30 days into the regular season and still miss nearly 20% of Edmonton's schedule, andwe have no idea how healthy his wrist will be once he does return. He seems like a pretty big draft risk right now as a guy often going inside the top-75 picks.

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Last week, two of my Ramblings covered some early ADP thoughts, starting with players I think are good values like the Triple Ds: Dylan Larkin, Dylan Guenther, and Dylan Holloway. The second Ramblings covered players I don't think are good values, including Mikko Rantanen and Shea Theodore.

Today, I want to continue looking at ADPs but look later in the drafts. While missing on early picks is a quick way to a 10^th-place finish, hitting on late picks is how fantasy championships are made. For that reason, let's look at ADP data from Underdog Fantasy – a points system that includes goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks – and from FanTrax, which includes all kinds of leagues. Let's see where we can find some values after pick 120, which is outside the first 10 rounds of a 12-team league.

Player data from Evolving Hockey.

*** For projections covering the entire league, as well as team-by-team reviews, and a bunch of analysis articles covering sleepers, stock drops, a schedule breakdown, and a whole lot more, go grab a copy of the 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide! ***

Mason McTavish (Anaheim Ducks)

Underdog ADP: 153.9

FanTrax ADP: 174.3

Over the last four seasons on a 60-minute basis, McTavish has the same goal rate as Tim Stutzle, a higher assist rate than JJ Peterka, and a higher shot rate than Seth Jarvis. In that span, here are the comparable forwards to McTavish by rate of goals, assists, and shots:

While Holloway is also a very good draft value this year, McTavish is going about 1-2 rounds later than Peterka on Underdog, and about six rounds later than Peterka on Fantrax. On top of the production, the last two seasons have seen McTavish average over 180 shots and over 80 hits every 82 games played. There are good peripheral counts to go with the production.

Perhaps the reticence around McTavish is his contract status (still unsigned), a new coach in town and McTavish's role under the new regime, or the uncertain quality of the team around him. That is understandable to a degree, but we're talking about a player between picks 150-200, not inside the top-100. With McTavish's late-season surge (25 points in his final 28 games), a (hopefully) improved team around him, and passing the 200-game threshold last year, this is a draft pick worth the risk.

Morgan Geekie (Boston Bruins)

Underdog ADP: 165.1

Fantrax ADP: 152.6

Fantasy players have certainly gotten smarter, and it seems not a lot of people are biting on Geekie given his 22% shooting last year. That's the right idea! Don't pay for an inflated shooting percentage.

It is also possible to go too far in the other direction. No, Geekie won't shoot 22% again, but it seems his ADP is ignoring a lot of context from last season. Let's do a little exercise: here are comparable forwards to Geekie from his first game lined up next to David Pastrnak (November 12^th) through the end of the season, with every forward's goal rate normalized to shooting 13% (the league average for a forward in that span):

All four players have similar-ish ADPs on both sites – somewhere between picks 150 and 200 – except Byfield on Underdog, who sits at 129. The key here for Geekie is that he's improved his play-driving in each of the past four seasons and has earned a spot next to Pastrňák both at 5-on-5 and on the power play. Even normalizing his shooting percentage leaves Geekie as pick in the 12^th or 13^th round, which is about where he's going, and what if playing next to Pastrňák makes him a 16-17% shooter instead of 13%?

Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins)

One of the Ramblings last week covered McAvoy as a good draft value, so we won't go long here. But for fun, here are the two comparable defencemen to McAvoy by goals, assists, shots, blocks, and hits per game over the last four seasons:

In my first draft of the season a month ago, I saw Mikhail Sergachev go at pick 116, which I thought was pretty good value. In a draft I did over the weekend, I saw him go at pick 98, so he moved up a round and a half in about four weeks. One draft doesn't mean everything, but he is a player I'm really keeping an eye on. If he starts regularly getting drafted inside the top-15 defencemen, I will be drafting him a lot less than I thought.

But I digress. McAvoy has performed well compared to Sergachev and Drew Doughty, and I'd say the difference between McAvoy and Doughty is McAvoy turning 28 years old in December where turns 36 years old. If I have a choice between Sergachev as a top-15 defenceman off the board and McAvoy somewhere between 20^th and 25^th, I know who I'll be drafting. 

Sam Rinzel (Chicago Blackhawks)

Underdog ADP: 187.3

Fantrax ADP: 220.2

Full disclosure: rookies are the last players I add to my projections, usually once I see how training camps shake out. If there are potentially generational rookies (Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Macklin Celebrini), then I make it a point to get those projections done when I do the rest of the league, but I don't bother with guys I'm not near-certain are going to be a top-6 forward or top PP defenceman right away.

In other words, I don't have a projection for Rinzel. But I do read, and I make sure to check out other sources, beginning with our own Dobber Fantasy Guide, as well as places like The Athletic and the aforementioned Evolving Hockey. Reading through those sources, Rinzel was absolutely a name that stood out to me. Evolving Hockey wasn't high on him, but the other two spots are:

• Dobber Draft List: 8 goals, 26 assists, 144 shots, 50 blocks, 96 hits in 72 games
• The Athletic: 7 goals, 34 assists, 140 shots, 18 PPP, 94 blocks, 87 hits in 65 games

If we take the average of the Dobber Fantasy Guide and The Athletic projections, and work it out to 82 games, it gives us 9 goals, 36 assists, 170 shots, 86 blocks, and 110 hits. That is a very good season. There are fewer blocks and more hits, but it's basically Thomas Chabot's production from last year.

Right now – and things will vary among different leagues and settings and all that – Rinzel is often going around the 40^th defenceman on Underdog and 60^th defenceman on Fantrax. He is obviously a better value on the latter than the former, but if he ends up anywhere near those projections, he's a good draft value overall no matter the site. 

Jet Greaves (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Underdog ADP: 156.5

Fantrax ADP: 223.8

There is a gap between those two ADPs, but Greaves is going somewhere between the 30^th and 40^th goalie on the two sites. I briefly touched on Greaves when I wrote about my first draft a month ago, but let's go a bit deeper here.

The fact is this: Columbus has missed the postseason for five straight years, and they came very close in 2024-25, finishing two points behind Montreal. That happened with goalie Elvis Merzlikins making 53 starts and posting an .892 save percentage, which was the fourth-worst mark for any goalie that made at least 41 starts, and he has had poor numbers for years now. This is a Columbus team that wants to reach the postseason and will not endure Merzlikins performing poorly for months. It may be that Merzlikins is the starting goalie for Game 1, but if he starts like he did last year when he allowed seven goals on 48 shots in his first two games, he might not make it to Halloween.

Whether Greaves is a good, great, bad, or awful goalie is up to the Hockey Gods. What I do know is we have a pretty good idea that Merzlikins is not a starting goalie on a playoff team, the Blue Jackets are itching to get to the playoffs, and Greaves has been great in limited NHL action and good in the AHL over the last two years. He is definitely a goalie I am targeting as my third netminder.