Back by popular request, I'm running through the top-50 by ADP on Yahoo (well 51 since there's an ADP tie at 50), and giving a quick note on whether I'm targeting them or not, and how I feel about them for the upcoming season.

Let's get rolling:

1 – Connor McDavid (C): Not too much else to this. He's the best player, has the highest odds of finishing as the top fantasy player, and if you're picking someone else at #1 then you're probably either overthinking things, or your league has some very weird categories.

Tied at 2 – Leon Draisaitl (C/LW): The wing eligibility here is big for a player who wins faceoffs and produces as much offence as Leon does. It's personal preference on him versus either of these next two picks.

Tied at 2 – Nathan MacKinnon (C): After finishing as the top fantasy skater last year, plenty of drafters are jumping on MacKinnon to try to get the player who might be the best bet to beat McDavid as the best fantasy skater again this season. A healthy Gabriel Landeskog in place of Jonathan Drouin could make a big difference too for the Avs.

4 – Nikita Kucherov (RW): At 32, poolies are starting to wonder if Kuch is going to see his scoring numbers drop off, but with the kind of skills he possesses, odds are that the scoring keeps up for at least another couple years. He is the reigning Art Ross winner after all.

Tied at 5 – Cale Makar (D): The undisputed top defenseman is only one step down from this next group of forwards in scoring, and still provides most of the usual peripherals you want in a D-man. I drafted him in the top-10 last year and won my league. I would do so again in the five-to-ten range.

Tied at 5 – Kirill Kaprizov (LW): I was lucky enough to nab Kirill in round two last year, but it's not happening again this time around. He's a 100-point player if he's healthy the whole year, and Minnesota was a top team in the West before his injury last year.

7 – David Pastrnak (RW): Despite a dwindling supporting cast, Pastrnak continues to churn out 100-point seasons. He's a safe bet in this range, and provides a very high floor of SOGs too.

8 – Auston Matthews (C): The last of the tier of really elite skaters, there is more risk with Matthews than the other top players due to the nagging injury that held him back last season. If he's back to full health he's a steal even at eight. If not, then it's still worth the risk, as his production last year should be his floor.

9 – Connor Hellebuyck (G): I'm not one to pick goalies this high, but this looks like just the right spot for someone to take a shot at the top regular season goalie in the game right now. The undisputed top players are off the board, and Hellebuyck was the top rated fantasy player on Yahoo last year. Winnipeg did lose Nikolaj Ehlers this year without a real replacement, so the roster in front of him could take a bit of a step back.

10 – Mikko Rantanen (RW): Rantanen has been a consistent top 10 player in the past, and showed flashes of being that same player in Dallas, but the consistency hasn't been there since leaving Colorado. The upside is a top 10 player, but the floor is a fair bit lower than those above him, and lower than some of the rest of the forwards in the 20s.

If you're looking at Rantanen against a few other similar options then check out Rick Roos' mailbag today on the DobberHockey site. He's going to keep running the mailbags in advance of the season as long as he continues to get enough to fill a column. You can send your questions to him in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to him via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where his username is "rizzeedizzee".

11 – Brady Tkachuk (LW): In leagues where shots, hits, and PIMs are counted, Brady is a top-three-to-five pick. In standard leagues where you only count one or two of those stats, he deserves to be picked somewhere in the 10-20 range. In point-only setups he would be lower.

12 – Quinn Hughes (D): The second-best fantasy defenseman at the moment has a bit more risk attached to him as he doesn't provide nearly the peripherals that we like to see from defencemen, and the Canucks as a team are a real wildcard. I would profer to grad one of the next few Dmen a round later instead.

13 – William Nylander (RW): After a 98-point pace two seasons ago, and four-straight seasons of point-per-game level of play, Nylander is a very safe pick here that has some reasonable upside too. There isn't much room for his ice time to move upwards though, so the Mitch Marner might not be a positive. He's not someone I'm reaching for this early. I wonder if there's some Leafs bias here.

14 – Jack Eichel (C): Eichel was a top-10 skater last season, and you can get him in the teens this year. He's a very safe and solid pick here.

Tied at 15 – Kyle Connor (LW): Does Connor have his team shoot over 11% with him on the ice again? Probably not. Does he then pace for over 90 points again? More likely a no to that than a yes. Which means I would prefer a safer bet, and to let someone else grab him above pick 25.

Tied at 15 – Andrei Vasilevskiy (G): A top-tier workhorse goalie who is as reliable as they come. The Lightning look better on paper than they did a year ago too, so this looks like a pretty safe goalie pick. Could you get a similar goalie a round or two later? Maybe a couple of picks later, but if you're looking a round or two later the same floor/ceiling combo isn't available anymore.

17 – Sam Reinhart (RW): Speaking of safe floors, that's what you're hoping for with a likely 85-point year out of Sam Reinhart. Unfortunately, he would have to be extremely lucky again to rise above that, and approach his peak of 94 points, so they are better options still available.

Tied at 18 – Zach Werenski (D): As D3 on the board this is a risky pick, as Werenski has some growth behind him, and a healthier forward core would likely take some of the volume away from him. He's not a value pick here, despite the upside.

Tied at 18 – Evan Bouchard (D): Similar story to Werenski, though I prefer Bouchard by a hair, and there aren't too many defensemen left after them that have the same upside, so you have to weigh that with your draft strategy.

Tied at 20 – Brayden Point (C): Point will turn 30 this year, has seen his shot and scoring rate decline from the previous two seasons, and that's despite shooting at a career-best 22% last year. I would be wary of expecting more than 85 points here, which isn't quite worth the draft position.

Tied at 20 – Mitch Marner (RW): After pacing for 100+ points each of the last five seasons, he hit the mark in his final season in Toronto. Now in Vegas, the deployment won't improve, but it likely won't fade much either. He's a much better scoring bet than most of the previous 10 names.

Tied at 20 – Jack Hughes (C/LW): If it's scoring upside you're after, then this is your best remaining bet. However, it comes with a big injury risk. If you're playing in a league where you can replace players on the waiver wire pretty easily, then it's worth the grab. Something you have to weigh in your particular situation, but I'm not against reaching for Jack anywhere after pick 15.

23 – Jake Oettinger (G): If it's wins you need, Oettinger is as good of a bet as any, but his ratios have been a bit disappointing for the past couple of years. It depends on the league, but he's risky ratio-wise to reach for this early.

24 – Matthew Tkachuk (RW): With the elder Tkachuk's injury status that will keep him out until close to the Olympic break, I wouldn't reach for him this high unless your team has keepers that will close to guarantee you a spot in your H2H playoffs. Otherwise. This is too much risk to be spending such a high pick on, even though he should produce at a top-20 rate when healthy (which is no given this season).

25 – Filip Forsberg (LW): Forsberg has been a top-15 skater a couple of times in the last handful of years, but had a disappointing showing last year along with the rest of the Preds. This seems about the right spot for him, though the floor and ceiling are farther apart than some other options in this range.

26 – Mackenzie Blackwood (G): The new goalie on the scene after his stock popped with a trade to Colorado, Blackwood looks like one of the "discount" options if you're hoping for a top-tier goalie who can net you 40 wins. It's still a little rich for me, but relative to goalie slots, it makes sense.

27 – Matt Boldy (LW/RW): For someone whose career high is 73 points, this feels high. This is about what Boldy's ranking could be to finish the season, but there shouldn't be a need to draft him this high for that chance. As much as I like him, there are much safe options with similar or better upside still available.

28 – Artemi Panarin (LW): Speaking of better bets for more points, Panarin is one of those options, who should be a great bet for 90, and can push for 100 if things click better for the Rangers than last year. A great pick here if you don't need the peripherals.

29 – Rasmus Dahlin (D): In leagues with peripherals, he's the D2 on my board, and I would grab him 15 picks earlier in those cases. For points-only, this feels about right, as it seems people are shying away from Buffalo perhaps more than they should.

30 – Igor Shesterkin (G): Maybe the best goalie in the NHL on pure talent, the Rangers are hoping that a few recent trades plus the signing of Vladislav Gavrikov gives Shesterkin the help he needs to regain his top-form, which is good enough to turn any team into a real Cup contender. As much as I don't pick goalies early, even I would consider grabbing Shesterkin here.

31 – Jason Robertson (LW): After he popped off for 109 points in 2022-23, he has been an 80-point player since, and it doesn't seem like his deployment or situation is going to change all that much to bump his scoring rate up again. A reasonable pick here, but not exciting.

32 – Jake Guentzel (LW): Maybe I'm a bit more excited about Jake Guentzel as a LW in this range, and seeing him settled in with the Lightning. His power play production improved as last season progressed, which is a good sign with a top unit as productive as the Bolts'.

Tied at 33 – Sidney Crosby (C): By the end of the season will he be the C2 in Montreal? Very unlikely. Will he still be a 90-point threat who can put up a top-20 fantasy season? Much more likely. Despite being 38, he's still a very viable asset in this range in one-year leagues.

Tied at 33 – Tim Stutzle. (C/LW): Similar to Robertson, Stutzle also had a big season in 2022-23, but dropped down to just under point-per-game levels for the next two years. Stutzle's underlying numbers appear to make it a little more likely that he takes a step forward again, but it's also tough to bank on him bringing much more than 80 points.

35 – J.T. Miller (C/RW): Miller has alternated between an 80-point season and a 100-point season the last four years, and after he put up 35 points in 32 games with the Rangers, we could be in line for another 100-point season. On top of that, he provides some fantastic peripherals. In leagues with banger categories, he should be going 20-picks before this. In any other leagues, this is still probably a bargain.

Also, congrats to Miller on the new letter:

— Dobber (@dobberhockey.bsky.social) 2025-09-16T13:33:07Z

36 – Victor Hedman (D): Hedman is going to be turning 35 before Christmas, and is due for a bit of a slow-down. He should still be a solid bet for at least 60-points, but it seems unlikely now that he'll get back up to the point-per-game rate. He's a bit risky here, but like Crosby his age makes him a bit of a bargain in redraft leagues.

Tied at 37 – Tage Thompson (C/RW): It's a risky proposition trying to project what you're getting from Tage in any given year, but based on his upside he should go at least by pick 37 in drafts. Unfortunately, it's his floor that holds him back, and at this point in the draft a bad pick is more likely to lose you the season rather than a good pick is to win it for you. Depends on your stomach for risk.

Tied at 37 – Clayton Keller (RW): As far as point scorers go, there aren't many better options left, and Utah on the whole looks primed to take off. Keller should be at the forefront of that, after putting up his first 90-point season last year, that should be regarded as a baseline for success for him this year.

Tied at 39 – Robert Thomas (C): One of the few players left who may have a higher upside than Keller, the peripherals are similarly lacking, and Thomas is a center, which usually has less value. He did go nuclear in the second half of last season, and could be a top-15 skater this year if that pace continues. Worth the risk in this range.

Tied at 39 – Jesper Bratt (RW): Another high-profile scorer who is worth the price at this range, is Bratt, who is looking like he's ready to top-90 points anytime now. He also brings a lot more peripherals than Thomas and Keller, though he's not necessarily the driver on his team, and is production does drop when Jack Hughes is hurt.

41 – Alex Ovechkin (LW): Now that the all-time goals chase is done, how does Ovie follow that up? He's still an elite shooter and provides tons of hits as well, but the assists are about as low as anyone you will find at this range, so he's not without his warts, especially as a 39-year-old.

42 – Macklin Celebrini (C): In the complete opposite situation from Ovechkin, the young Celebrini is a well-rounded fantasy producer, with a ton of upside but also some uncertainty with how his sophomore year will pan out. The good news is that Celebrini wasn't sheltered, and thrived by possession metrics, so he's likely a safe bet to avoid a sophomore slump, and his upside would put him well above the 40^th pick range.

43 – Josh Morrissey (D): Morrissey's scoring has gone down in successive seasons, despite his offensive zone time going up in successive years. It appears to be correlated to a shift in the make up and strategy of the team around him, which has been phasing him out of the scoring on offence very slowly. His IPP has been dropping, and his secondary assist rate rising, which indicates that he's not as necessary for the scoring while he's on the ice as he was two seasons ago. I worry some drafters are still hoping for the 70+ point version of Morrissey, and while Ehlers' departure could bring a bit of scoring back Morrissey's way, I wouldn't bet on it at this stage.

44 – Nick Suzuki (C): Suzuki has seen his scoring rate increase year over year for his entire six-season career. The underlying numbers don't provide a lot of room for further growth, though if the Habs' power play improves there is some room for growth. You're unlikely to get 100 points here, but a 90-point centre with solid peripherals is a decent pick. On the flip side, you can find similar centers a few rounds later, but not with the same high floor.

45 – Aleksander Barkov (C): Speaking of high floor and upside centers, Barkov has paced for 100 points before, though he has seen his scoring rate drop slightly in recent seasons. He's as sure of a bet as they come in this range that he will hit the point-per-game mark. Similar pros and cons as Suzuki.

Tied at 46 – Lane Hutson (D): Hutson's 66-point rookie season was fantastic, but it was even better if you look at the last three quarters, where he paced for a 74-point season. In points-only leagues he deserves to be going higher than 45^th pick, though when peripherals are added into the mix, his value drops a bit. The lack of shot volume is especially tough, though that could grow as he ages as well.

Tied at 46 – Sergei Bobrovsky (G): There are some players like Bobrovsky where you just stop caring about their age, and accept that they won't drop off sharply, and will continue to be undervalued because they're old. Bob is going to be drafted after goalies who will provide lesser stats, just because of his age. Take advantage.

48 – Martin Necas (RW): After a ridiculous Q1, Necas was about a point-per-game player in the second half with the Avs, and he should continue about there this year. A reasonable pick in this range.

49 – Ilya Sorokin (G): If you don't mind foregoing some wins, and taking a risk on the level of ratio's you're going to get, then Sorokin is for you. He's not going to be for me in any drafts though, as the price is too steep for the risk/reward portfolio he brings.

Tied at 50 – Connor Bedard (C): On the flip side of risk/reward, Bedard is one I am certainly going to be trying to get a piece of in one-year leagues this season, as I do think he takes a big step forward after last season's small step back.

Tied at 50 – Adrian Kempe (RW):  Unlike Bedard who he is tied with in ADP, you know exactly what you're getting with Kempe, which should be about 70 points, 20 PPPs, and high volume in the shot and hit columns too. He’s been a favourite of mine in the 50-75 range the past few years.

*

See you on Friday to finish off the top-100. If you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.