Fantasy Hockey Mailbag: Michkov, Marner vs. Rantanen, Holloway, Pastrnak, Kaako, Miller vs. Forsberg in Multicat, L. Thompson & More

Rick Roos

2025-09-17

Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Chris)

I’m in a 13 team league where we keep 13 players and draft 10 each season. Trades can include future draft picks as well as FA Moves (every team gets 10 per season). Each day’s roster must include 16 total players – 9F, 6D, 1G. We use the NHL Salary Cap plus a 10% bonus. Scoring categories are G, A, +/-, SHG, SOG, PIM, W, L, GA, SV, SHO. Currently, my roster is as follows:

F: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Matt Boldy, Quinton Byfield, Alex DeBrincat, Matty Beniers, Zach Benson, Owen Tippett, Ivan Demidov, Kaapo Kakko 

D: Simon Edvinsson, Charlie McAvoy, Mattias Ekholm, Owen Power, Simon Benoit, Niko Mikkola, Zayne Parekh, Jamie Drysdale, Logan Stanley

G: Jusse Saros, Yaroslav Askarov, David Rittich, Jonathan Quick

I made a number of moves this past season, acquiring pieces I didn’t want (Quick, Kakko, Drysdale) for draft upside. My long-term goal is to be able to compete for a money place (top 3) in the next two years, and hopefully remain competitive for a while thereafter given that I should have a solid core in Boldy, Byfield, Beniers, Benson, Demidov, Bratt, Hischier, Edvinsson, Power, Parekh, Askarov, and Saros. There are a couple of guys I might consider moving (e.g., Hischier, DeBrincat, Beniers) for a defenseman if a move materializes, but of course, I would ultimately move someone else if I felt it helped push my team forward.

I’m drafting 3rd overall and have no picks after the 7th round as I traded all my late round picks. For the first three rounds, I have one first round pick, one second round pick, and two third round picks.

Two questions:

1. Based on my full team list and stated goals, who would you suggest as my 13 keepers? 
2. As I’m drafting 3rd overall in the first round, would you suggest taking a chance on a guy like Frondell (as an example – happy to hear any suggestions of any other player drafted in 2025), or a more established player, such as the best available defenseman?

For keepers, let's remove Quick, Benoit, Rittich, Stanley, and Mikkola as they're not in the conversation. That means we need to land on five more cuts. But before getting to who I think should or should not be your cuts, I will say your league has quite unique scoring for skaters. So I'd give serious consideration to using Fantasy Hockey Geek, since many other projections for players would not be consistent with this combination of categories, whereas you can pick any you want with FHG. Back to the cuts – Looking at your roster, it just so happens that I see exactly five players who "stand out" as being not the caliber as the rest – Ekholm, Drysdale, Edvinsson, Kakko, Tippett.

Ekholm is entering a contract year and has fared well for the Oilers, but he's 35 years old and is benefitting in scoring simply by being on a high scoring team, and likely will see his stats drop after this season. So I can't get behind keeping him just for one more decent season and given his age.

Drysdale may still succeed, as it's basically only him and Cam York battling for PP1 in Philly. But Drysdale cannot stay healthy, and the Flyers committed to York in the form of a five year deal. There is definitely a universe where Drysdale lives up to having been drafted sixth overall, and the Flyers paid a hefty price to get him in the form of Cutter Gauthier; however, there are other recent highly drafted rearguards who fell flat, including the likes of Jake Bean, Erik Brannstrom, and Adam Boqvist. So I think Drysdale is not a keep, but could be redrafted if you still have hopes for him.

Edvinsson was the toughest of the five to not keep; however, I worry that although he's scoring okay and getting good minutes, he seems to be on a path to have more of a defensive focus. So although he did surpass 30 points in his first full season, I am unsure he will reach 40 any time soon. He might be one to try and trade though. More on trades below.

Kakko is a larger frame player poised to hit his 400 game breakout threshold. But even though he had career bests in 5×5 team SH% and IPPs, the result was a 46 point scoring rate. I get that folks remember him being a second overall pick; but he barely shoots and is rarely used on the PP. There's risk in cutting the cord due to the 400 game mark approaching, but you need cuts, and on paper he should be one.

📢 advertisement:

Lastly there's Tippett. He has a sizeable contract; and in 2023-24 averaged the fourth most SOG per 60 minutes of any forward. But he took a step back, and Philly now has, as other winger options, not just Matvei Michkov, but Tyson Foerster, who had as many points as Tippett last season and had 11 points in the nine games after John Tortorella was fired, plus was on PP1, in place of Tippett. So although Tippett could rise again, I'm not liking his situation nearly as much as I did just two seasons ago.

What about trades? I'd be very open to dealing Byfield, since although past results do not dictate future outcomes, players as tall and heavy as him do not have a track record of success and several of them had their careers cut short due to injury. Yes, he had 34 points in his last 40 games, but I'm still leery. I could also see trading Hischier, as I think we've seen his best, but others might still view him as able to do even more, especially as a former first overall pick. If you trade them together, you can keep who you get back, plus one of the five I named. And use Edvinsson as possible sweetener.

As for who to pick 3rd overall, it depends. If you can get a player who has baked in success, I'd opt for him over a 2025 draftee. Yes, for some of the top picks this might be your only chance to grab them; however, after Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa the rest are a bit iffy for my liking. But if you're intent on drafting a 2025 pick, I like James Hagens, as the Bs are in desperate need for a scoring center, and there is only Matthew Poitras looming and when Hagens ready he will likely get the prize of playing alongside David Pastrnak, who should still be an elite player by then. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Aaron)

I’m in a 12 team, H2H league where teams can keep up to 6 players for any duration and at any position but must keep at least 3 per season. Each keeper costs you a pick in that round, so if you keep 6 you don't draft until the 7th round. Categories are G, A, PPG, PPA, PIM, SOG, HIT, BLK, FOW, W, SV%, SO. My "lock" keepers are Nikita Kucherov, Matthew Tkachuk, Evan Bouchard, and Jake Oettinger. For my other two keeper slots I’m deciding between Dlyan Holloway, Joel Eriksson Ek, Andrei Svechnikov and Dylan Guenther. I kept JEE and Svech last year. Both were pretty disappointing but obviously have upside in my banger league. Holloway is the highest rated based on the Fantasy Hockey Geek 2025-26 projections for my league, but Guenther is tempting based on upside/trajectory despite not being as well rounded as Holloway.

As a wrinkle, one of the other GMs has a stacked roster and offered me J.T. Miller for a 7th rounder or Filip Forsberg for an 8th rounder. Both are obviously upgrades to the options I’m considering for my last two spots. Miller is a unicorn with C/RW eligibility and a beast in all stats, but he is 32 years old. Forsberg has a stellar multi cat track record and has become quite consistent, even on a bad Nashville team last year but is also in his thirties. So although his age is a concern, I couldn't say no to the Miller trade. Do you think it was a good move? Would you have opted for Forsberg instead?

Now that I did the trade, I indeed to keep 6 players. That means my 7th rounder would have been my first draft pick, but not it'd be in round 8. I'm leaning toward Guenter as my last keep, figuring at lot of what I'd "lose" in leeping him versus Holloway I've offset by getting Miller. Do you agree?

Let's start with the trade. With 12 teams and you picking 11th, your 7th rounder should be the 83rd best player while your 8th should be 97th best. Both Miller and Forsberg seem like amazing value for those spots. It's too bad you can't get both, although if you can you should do so, as I think they are superb for this format. Do I agree that Miller was the better of the two though, if you could indeed only get one of them? Forsberg is a round cheaper and shoots more, plus is younger. And as you noted he was quite good last season despite the Preds being a trainwreck. Miller is amazing too though, plus gives you coveted FOW from the wing, and he took the 26th most FOW last season, with the vast majority of those above him being C eligible only. So do try to get both, but assuming that is a no go, Miller does get an edge due to him being essentially on a par with Forsberg in most areas other than SOG and a year older, but the FOW at RW is so huge. So I agree with picking Miller over Forsberg to trade for.

That means you can keep only one of the four you listed, rather than two. I realize Holloway projects to be very good in your league; however, he's not even assured a spot on PP1. The silver lining about that is the Blues are a rare breed in today's NHL in that they don't heap PPTOI on their first unit; and on top of that, they also divide the talent between both units. But I don't like that Holloway was almost never on a line with Robert Thomas, who is emerging as a star in the making. Perhaps if Holloway continues to do well they will be paired; however, that uncertainty is enough to make me opt for Guenther instead. Yes, he is very weak in multicat, but he is seemingly locked into the top line and PP1, and the trio of him, Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley, plus new addition JJ Peterka on PP1, should elevate Guenther to be able to outpoint Holloway by 10-15+ points, and with heaps more PPPts and SOG. So although indeed Holloway offers great value in this setting, I'm with you in keeping Guenther, plus trading for Miller.

What about JEE and Svechnikov? JEE is fine, and offers a good mix of scoring and banger stats, but he is seemingly shooting less, and his upward trajectory of scoring has stopped. In short, I think he's at his ceiling, and if last season was an indication could be at risk of obtaining band-aid boy status. Make no mistake – you should not hesitate to draft him again if he can be obtained in a good value spot, but I don't see keeping him over Guenther. As for Svech, he's gone from a player many were waiting to be a point per game multicat stud, to now scoring, shooting and hitting less. And the addition of Nicolaj Ehlers adds a winger to the equation which likely can only hurt Svech more. He too is someone I'd consider drafting again; however, it can no longer be justified to keep him over Guenther. Good luck!

Question #3 (from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm in a 10 Team, Keep 6, H2H 1 win, weekly matches, daily lineups league with rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 1Util, 3G (4 weekly appearances minimum), 6Bench, 2IR+ and categories of G, A, PPP, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, W, SV%, GAA, S/O. For the 3rd consecutive year I finished 1st in the regular season, but finally I won my championship! Here is my season-ending roster:

C: Robert Thomas, Roope Hintz, Dylan Strome, Mikael Backlund
LW: Leon Draisaitl, Kirill Kaprizov, Tim Stutzle, Brandon Hagel, Marco Kasper
RW: Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Dylan Guenther, Quinton Byfield
D: Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Jacob Trouba, Nick Seeler, Lian Bischel
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Filip Gustavsson, MacKenzie Blackwood

I'm pretty set on keeping Draisaitl, Kaprizov, Makar, Dahlin, and Hughes. I've narrowed down my last keeper to Marner or Rantanen, and am leaning toward Marner. Stutzle had been a keeper, but I think he is a notch below the other option, even though he is younger. I also don't see keeping Vasilevskiy or Gustavsson as being a benefit over a skater. I did approach the GMs who own Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon about a trade, but did not receive a response. There are a few GM's who I believe would have serious interest in Hughes, one of whom has Matthews and Kucherov, so I've considered offering Hughes and Stutzle for Kucherov or possibly Hughes, Stutzle and Kaprizov for Kucherov and Matthews. What would you do if you were me?

Congrats on the win! Your team is quite stacked, and you being the regular season champ for three straight seasons is a testament to your knowledge of the league and fantasy hockey. But it also may be having an undesired effect of causing other GMs to be skittish about trading with you, for fear of making your team even better. Also, if possible you want to make sure any trade won't allow your competition to make net gains as compared to those for your team.

At the outset I'm saying no realistic universe exists where you trade one of your defensemen. They are amazing and simply too difficult to replace. And I'm also keeping a vice grip on Kaprizov, who, although admittedly has become a band-aid boy, also has 112 points in his last 74 regular season games played, and that was without a top tier center or PP1 QB. He is Kucherov level, and you hold onto that for sure.

📢 advertisement:

I agree that Stutzle is outclassed by Marner and Rantanen. His declining SOG and TOI are concerning, and he seems like not the same player without Josh Norris in the mix. Make no mistake – I'd be happy to draft him again; but when you have those other options for keepers, he's outclassed.

Rantanen versus Marner is tough. Rantanen went nuts in the playoffs, but the ice time he was getting was atypical, even accounting for no more Pete DeBoer. Dallas also is so balanced that I fear there will be more points spread more evenly, unlike in Colorado where he was stapled to Mac and received heaps of TOI both overall and on the PP and they were at the top of the food chain in terms of scoring. It may be a stretch for Rantanen to score more than 90 points. As for Marner, he's been one of the most consistent scorers since entering the NHL, but he's in literal uncharted territory. And although he'll for sure be on PP1, I'm not sure if Vegas will choose to put him with Jack Eichel, as Vegas, much like Dallas, is concerned with winning in ways that do not always translate to the best fantasy outcomes for their players. Still, for what it is worth, Marner had 23 points in the 15 games Matthews missed last season, helping allay concerns as to whether he can thrive without Matthews. Interestingly, Matthews had 17 points in the 11 games Marner missed in 2023-24. So perhaps both can do well when separated? As such, I give an edge to Marner over Rantanen, but I'm not super excited about Marner since as with Rantanen I fear he will not be able to succeed to his fullest extent.

As such, I would try to make it so you don't have to keep either. I'm unsure why you're not considering Vasy, as you do start three goalies and he looked rejuvenated. Here though is where I trust that you know your league.

But if Matthews or Kucherov are in play via trade, I'd make a run at them. Matthews will not have the same issue as Marner, as Toronto will give him any and every chance to go nuts, which, as I noted, he has shown he can do without Marner. And Kucherov is….well….Kucherov.

What about David Pastrnak? Maybe the GM who owns him is worried given how weak the Bruins figure to be? If he can be pried away, grab him, as he's truly amazing, as he is a lock for 110+ points. Or what about Zach Werenski or Evan Bouchard, to give you an unbeatable roster of defensemen, while, as the same time, having fewer out there for other teams? Werenski is no one year wonder, looking at his IPPs and the fact he hit a combined 23 crossbars and posts. And Bouchard, although perhaps a rung below the others, is young and still the unquestioned source for blueline offense on a very potent team and either of those two would also leave even fewer scoring d-men for your competitors, which is a factor worth considering, since cornering the market can be beneficial.

I'd be in favor of you trying to move one or more of Vasy, Gus, Marner, Rantanen, and Stutzle to get any of Matthews, Pasta, Kucherov, Werenski or Bouchard. My preference would be Kucherov or Pasta, then Matthews or Werenski, and Bouchard last. If a deal cannot materialize, either keep Vasy, or, if you feel that is not smart given your league, I'm going with Marner over Rantanen. Good luck going for a repeat!

Question #4 (also from DobberHockey Forums)

I'm in a 13 team auction league where we get a budget of $209 for 30 player rosters, with 12F, 6D, 3G starting for each team, meaning 9 bench spots. Categories are G, A, Pts, SOG, +/-, PIM, W, GAA. I can keep 3 players and the options I'm considering, with their keeper costs, are:

Adrian Kempe $15
Matt Boldy $13
Nicolaj Ehlers $10
Matvei Michkov $6
Adam Fox $17

Logan Thompson $11

David Pastrnak $35

For some context, Connor McDavid and Nathan Mackinnon go for $40-45, while Jack Eichel, Sebastian Aho, and Kyle Connor usually go for $20-25. Top d-men go for $20-25, outside of Makar, who is much higher. Top 5 goalies normally cost $30-40, whereas the likes of Pyotr Kotchekov, Jordan Binnington, and Jacob Markstrom cost $15 or so. My formula for approaching the draft is to try and spend $120 on forwards, $40 on defensemen, $40 on goalie, and then fill my bench with $1 guys, of which there are always plenty. I think Boldy is a lock and I’m leaning towards Thompson just to secure a good #2 netminder without battling for one at a likely higher price. The last keeper is tough as Kempe might cost about the same to draft as to keep, whereas Ehlers and Michkov should see their prices rise. Fox does not wow me but is my only real defenseman keeper option so I figured I'd list him too. Which three are you keeping?

This is an interesting league in terms of three scoring categories for skaters, but also SOG, +/- and PIM, which is not a combination you see often. Similarly, goalies have only two categories, with one being volume (wins) and the other quality (GAA), but nothing pertaining to saves. My readers know I'm not a shill, but this too strikes me as an ideal league for Fantasy Hockey Geek, with such a unique combination of categories.

The big question is Pasta. He had a staggering 61 points in his last 37 games, this after being exactly a point per game player in the first half. What's odd though is he had the same main linemates all season. So I wonder if this was just a case of him running super cold to start, and super hot to end, but the net result is him finishing right around where he should. If he was a bit lower cost I'd say keep him, but chances are he goes for around that price, or perhaps a tiny bit more, making him not a keep.

I'm not sure why there is any debate about Michkov. He had 63 points in 80 games playing under John Tortorella, who certainly did not deploy him in a manner that would lead to him thriving. And not only did he have 12 points in the nine games after Torts was fired, but he had as many games – six – with a TOI of 19:59+ in those games as he did in the entire season prior to Torts being shown the door. He also had four games of 4+ SOG, after hitting that mark only 13 in his prior 68 games. He is poised to explode, and you must keep him. Heck – I'd still keep him if the cost to do so was more than double what it is!

Your instincts are correct, I feel, regarding Kempe. The question to always ask yourself when deciding whether to keep a player in an auction league is did he do anything to make it so his cost would be more than it was going into last season, assuming he wasn't a keeper? For Kempe, he did fine, but not better, and thus his cost should not be higher, making him not a keep unless there are no better other options.

I can see the temptation regarding Thompson; but even though he inked a large deal during the season, it did not cement him as a true number one, as after the date he signed the deal he did not once start three straight games. And it's not like the Caps had reason to be concerned about him tiring, as he'd started 46 games in 2023-24. I do think he is the presumed starter, but $5.85M is not such a high salary as to lock him into that role. So he's a maybe as a keep.

I do like Boldy though. He was thriving on the PP with Kirill Kaprizov and at ES with Joel Eriksson-Ek, but then both of them were in and out of the line-up after Q1, and Boldy played mostly with Marco Rossi, with whom he did not have great chemistry. But with Kaprizov and JEE back in the fold, Boldy should be poised to thrive. I'm keeping him for sure at that price.

Also, although it seems like you threw in Fox, if indeed top defensemen go for $20-25, Fox at $17 seems like a solid price. Yes, Ehlers will go for comparatively higher, but I'm not sold on how Ehlers will fare in Carolina, a team on which even its highest paid players don't get heaps of ice time and where let's not forget Mikko Rantanen failed to find chemistry. Ehlers has also never had expectations placed on him as they will be now. And although Martin Necas was doing quite well for a while last season, no Carolina winger has been a point per gamer in almost two decades.!

To me, it's Michkov and Boldy, with the last spot going to Thompson or Fox. And although I have some reservations about Thompson, he will be a bigger bargain than Fox, so I can get behind keeping him rather than Fox. Good luck!

************************

It seems like folks are enjoying sending in questions and reading my answers, so I'll keep doing these in advance of the season as long as I continue to get enough to fill a column. You can send your questions to me in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.

One Comment

  1. Sergey 2025-09-18 at 18:38

    It’s strange that in Question #2 you didn’t mention that by acquiring (and keeping) Miller, the GM loses not only a 7th-round pick but also Svechnikov, who could have been kept in that spot.

    In reality, the comparison should be Miller + a free agent versus Svechnikov + a 7th-round pick (the equivalent of, say, JEE). That’s the kind of trade that needs to be evaluated — not simply whether Miller is better than Svechnikov.

    I’m very surprised this obvious point was overlooked.

Leave A Comment

Starting Goalies

No games found.

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUCA CAGNONI S.J
ADAM FANTILLI CBJ
ROMAN KANTSEROV CHI
IGOR CHERNYSHOV S.J
LOGAN COOLEY UTA

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DAN VLADAR PHI
SCOTT WEDGEWOOD COL
SERGEI MURASHOV PIT
CARTER HART VGK
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BUF Players
17.7 NOAH OSTLUND JIRI KULICH KONSTA HELENIUS
16.9 JAKE RICHARD MATTHEW PECA TREVOR KUNTAR
14.1 AIDAN MCDONOUGH TYSON KOZAK JUSTIN DANFORTH

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK