With training camps opening, we finally got updates on a lot of players on whom fantasy managers have been anticipating updates.

Earlier in the summer, got word that Florida forward Matthew Tkachuk would miss the start of the season and that it was likely to drag well into the regular season. We got an update, of sorts, on that front, and it does seem he's going to miss at least a couple of months:

Tkachuk (lower body) is out until roughly December, per Zito,

"Don't hold me to that," he said. "My internet medical degree."

— Jameson Olive (@JamesonCoop) September 17, 2025

Using the schedule planner from Frozen Tools, if Tkachuk were to return for Florida's first game in December, he will miss 24 games. If he returns two weeks after that, he'll miss 32 games, and if he returns just after Christmas, he'll miss 36. So, depending on when his December return is, he could miss anywhere from 30-45% of the season.

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A significant note on Utah goaltender Connor Ingram:

BREAKING: Bill Armstrong says Connor Ingram will not be at camp. He and Ingram have agreed that he will go through waivers and try to find another NHL home.#TusksUp

— Brogan Houston (@houston_brogan) September 17, 2025

Ingram has spent time in the Players' Assistance Program following the death of his mother, and it seems as if he and the team are just ready for a fresh start. That is not necessarily a bad thing, and let's hope he lands on his feet and shows as well as he did a couple of years ago.

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A bit of an update on Colorado goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood:

Avalanche Injuries

-LOC: hip, on track for beginning of November.
-Girard: lower body, will miss time in camp, hopeful he'll be ready for opening night
-Blackwood: offseason injury, week-to-week, missing time in camp, hopeful for start of the season or the first week or two

— Aarif Deen (@runwriteAarif) September 17, 2025

it doesn't seem as if anything is too serious, but the potential to miss the start of the season is not ideal for any player. Something fantasy managers need to be mindful of.

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We also got an update on Zach Hyman

Oilers' Zach Hyman said he isn't ready to start training camp Thursday (dislocated wrist). He said he's skating on his own and is continuing to progress. No timeline given for game action. He expects to be at least practicing with teammates by the start of the season.

📢 advertisement:

— Daniel Nugent-Bowman (@DNBsports) September 17, 2025

We have to wait until he starts shooting before we get too excited about him returning to the ice, but hopefully this is more along the lines of Blackwood where it's a couple of weeks missed of the regular season, and not a month or more.

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Tampa Bay announced a surgery for forward Nick Paul:

Julien BriseBois says Nick Paul has an upper body injury. He needed surgery last Friday. They expect he will be out until the first part of November #GoBolts

— Diandra Loux (@Diandra_loux) September 17, 2025

Paul has some multi-cat value in medium- and deep-sized formats, but this is also important for Brandon Hagel. Paul is one of the players who can take top PP time away from Hagel, so this is a bit of security, though Oliver Bjorkstrand still lurks.

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My last couple of Ramblings have talked about the concept or arbitrage drafting. That idea of arbitrage simply means that when looking at two players with similar projections at the same position, drafting the player with a much lower ADP is the player to target. It sounds obvious, and yet there are several good arbitrage opportunities every season.

Last week, we discussed defencemen, and we moved to wingers on Tuesday. Today, we are rounding out the skaters by looking at centres. We are using positional and ADP data from Fantrax, so position assignments and ADP values will vary on different sites. We are using my personal projections which project each player for 82 games, only limiting the games played for skaters we know are injured long-term like Matthew Tkachuk. The categories we're using are goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks.

Data for the projections come from Evolving Hockey and AllThreeZones.

Sidney Crosby (C, ADP: 32.4) and Connor Bedard (C, ADP: 71.7)

There is something to be said for consistency, and Crosby had been exactly that in these late stages of his career with four straight seasons of at least 30 goals, 50 assists, and 200 shots. That makes him 1 of 4 players, along with Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen, to post that stat line in each of the last four campaigns (per Hockey Reference). It feels like we're all waiting for the bottom to fall out of his production now that he's in his late 30s (whom among us can't relate) but he just keeps chugging along.

With that said, it is notable that my projected stat line for him and Bedard this season are close:

Crosby does have the edge in goals, assists, and hits, but none of them are gigantic differences. The 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Draft Guide have both Crosby and Bedard with similar numbers in all categories except goals, where the guide has him for 25. In both cases, Crosby is projected to have the better season, but it's fairly close, and not worth over three rounds of value between picks 30 and 70.

The goals are what stands out, and a big reason for my projection is the improvement on Chicago's blue line. Both Wyatt Kaiser and Alex Vlasic took steps forward in their transition tracking data while both Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel are high-end prospects. This is a young blue line, but even without Seth Jones, this looks like Chicago's best puck-moving defence group since probably the COVID bubble season, and certainly in Bedard's short career. The forward group still needs work, but teams can't generate offence without their defencemen being able to move the puck, and that is helping Bedard's projection a lot.

There is reasonable hesitation around Bedard given the step back in his sophomore season and Chicago's utter lack of forward depth, but there is now a talented blue line to help make up those deficiencies, and it makes Bedard a good draft value this season.

Nick Suzuki (C, 52.8) and Robert Thomas (C, ADP: 75.9)

As a Habs fan, it pains me to say that in multi-cat formats like this, I think all their top skaters are being overvalued. Most drafts I've done have seen Cole Caufield go in the third round, Suzuki in the fourth, and both Ivan Demidov and Lane Hutson in the top-100. All are or will be great players, but this is a multi-cat format, and Suzuki just doesn't have the peripherals to justify a pick around the top-50. So, let's cut to the chase and look at the projections for he and Thomas this season:

The goals, shots, and power-play points are close, Suzuki has a decided edge in hits and blocks, and Thomas has the sizeable edge in assists. Put it all together and they have a relatively similar overall outlook, and that is what makes it worth saving two rounds of value and going with Thomas.

What concerns me for Suzuki is his ice time. Up until Kirby Dach's injury on February 22^nd, Suzuki was averaging 19:28 per game in ice time. After Dach's injury, that exploded to 21:23 per game. Dach missing from the lineup added nearly two minutes per game to Suzuki's profile, and he went on a tear with 35 points in his next 25 games. If everyone is healthy, I think coach Martin St. Louis would like to keep Suzuki in the 19- to 20-minute range, and that's much different from skating 21 to 22 minutes a night.

That shift in ice time would put Suzuki and Thomas on relatively equal footing, and Thomas has been the more productive player on a per-minute basis in each of the last four seasons. Overall, I do have Suzuki as the better fantasy player this season, but it's really close, and not worth two rounds of value between picks 50 and 75.

Wyatt Johnston (C, ADP: 68.5) and Bo Horvat (C, ADP: 140.1)

To be clear: Johnston's projections are better than Horvat, the edge in power-play points is drastic, and the only spot Horvat has a real leg up is in the hits column:

With that said, all those numbers make Johnston my 22^nd centre on the board with Horvat as my 26^th centre. Looking at their ADPs on FanTrax, they are listed as the 18^th and 37^th centre, respectively. In that sense, Johnston is reasonably ranked, if a little overvalued, while Horvat is grossly undervalued, and that's what makes this a good arbitrage opportunity.

The underwhelming nature of the Islanders in recent seasons, and probably again this year, masks what have been very productive, and consistent, multi-cat seasons from Horvat. In fact, he is 1 of just 2 players with at least 25 goals, 25 assists, 40 blocks, 60 hits, and three shots per game in each of the last two years (Filip Forsberg is the other). He is going to get around 20 minutes a game, he is a high-volume shooter, and his points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons is 2.17, a mark that puts him just outside the top-50 forwards. If Mathew Barzal stays healthy, the Islanders power play will be better, and Horvat can cruise past 60 points and threaten 70.

Whether looking at ADP data from FanTrax (68.5), Yahoo (64), or ESPN (67.5), Johnston is going as a sixth-round pick, and that's fine, if a bit overvalued. But Horvat is going at 140.1 on FanTrax, 152.8 on Yahoo, and 107.4 on ESPN, so anywhere but ESPN and Horvat provides 6-7 rounds of savings, and that is worth being projected for roughly a half-dozen fewer goals and assists.  

Adam Fantilli (C, ADP: 125.1) and Josh Norris (C, ADP: 193.3)

Last season, Columbus Blue Jackets centre Sean Monahan was injured on January 7^th and was out of action through March 23^rd. Up until that injury, Fantilli was averaging 16:22 per outing and had 17 points in 40 games. Without Monahan, Fantilli exploded to 19:36 per game and had 25 points in 29 appearances. Once Monahan returned, and Boone Jenner was back in the lineup, Fantilli skated just 16:06 per game. In other words, this is not a player I think is in line to skate 18-plus minutes a night, and that is what's giving him a modest projection this season:

I have said recently about Zach Werenski that the time to draft him was last year, and I think that applies to Fantilli as well. We got lucky that injuries to key Jackets forwards gave him a much larger role than he otherwise would have, but he's now going several rounds higher than he was last year, and in all honesty, his role is the same as it was last year. And, not for nothing, but in that 25 points-in-29 games stretch, four of his points were with the empty net. They were the only four empty-net points he got all year, and once both Monahan and Jenner returned, Fantilli was not used in defensive empty-net situations.

Norris played just three games before getting injured for Buffalo, but in those three games, he averaged 18:36 per game and skated at least 17:20 in all three. He skated top power-play minutes, a role that should be all-but-assured now that JJ Peterka is gone. The fact that he should have a higher rate of blocks per game, and much higher rate of hits per game, outweighs the advantages Fantilli should have in assists and shots. Overall, it gives them a similar outlook, and Norris is going several rounds later.

Norris' injury issues are well-documented and recurring. Wanting to avoid him for that reason is completely understandable. By the same token, if the choice is a 12^th or 13^th-round pick on Fantilli, or a 16^th or 17^th rounder on Norris, my choice is Norris.