Frozen Tool Forensics: Realistic Expectations for PTO Players
Chris Kane
2025-09-20
The NHL season is approaching and the flow of news is starting to pick up. Training camps are starting and we have injury updates, signings, line combos, and PTOs. Professional tryouts are not usually the way to make a name for yourself as a fantasy player and for the most part fantasy leagues won't be won or lost by someone currently on a PTO. This makes sense. Most of the players that teams thought would be a good addition were signed to an actual contract over the summer. A PTO option is for the leftovers. That doesn't mean though there aren't occasional decent seasons following a PTO. We have seen 50-plus-point-pace seasons, a 20-goal season or two, but it isn't that common.
For today we are shifting gears a little, away from the strictest data use and going to try to envision a best-case scenario for some of these familiar names on PTOs. The worst case scenario is pretty evident, they don't get a contract. I am going to be looking at these players' recent history as well as the situation they are walking into and see what is the most we might be able to expect from them in 2025-26. Basically, with drafts happening I would like to give some context for anyone seeing these names on their draft board to help make the choice as to whether any of these players might be worth the risk. The recommendations are based on typical one-year redraft leagues and obviously the calculations might be different in deeper leagues.
I would like to briefly set the stage, and expectations if you will. In our PTO review in September of 2024 we touched on ten of the most interesting names. Of those ten, seven played NHL games. Three played more than 30 games, and none played over 40. Those three players were Kevin Labanc, Jakub Vrana, and Max Pacioretty. There was a week or two when Labanc was worth a roster spot in 12 to 14 team leagues, and there were stretches where Pacioretty was somewhat productive when given good deployment in Toronto, but overall, we are talking about 30-point-pace seasons from players playing 30-40 games. While technically a 50-point, 20-goal season is possible, in most cases the best-case scenario for these players is they might be worth an occasional stream. 2025-26 has some really interesting storylines and certainly a possibility of future value. The following is a list of some familiar names that are about to enter their PTO. There are more, but these are the 'biggest names' who might be of interest.
"Was surprised to still see him on the market after a 40-point season" (Elliot Freedman) kind of sums it up. Matt Grzelyck left Boston after only a 14-point pace in 2023-24 to put up 40 points in Pittsburgh. It was certainly an unexpected season. Even with Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang on the roster, Grzelyck somehow ended up with 45 percent of the power-play time overall, and was on the top unit for most of the second half of the season. He also saw over 20 minutes on average of ice time for the first time of his career. He is now on a PTO in Chicago, where let's just say there is certainly an opportunity on the back end. Connor Murphy is the only player who is over the age of 24, and only he, Alex Vlasic, and Wyatt Kaiser played more than 50 games in 2024-25. Kaiser, Nolan Allen, and Louis Crevier are all options on the back end but aren't guaranteed anything. Between them, and then the new players with offensive pedigree, Artyom Levshunov, Sam Rinzel, and Kevin Korchinski there are a lot of question marks. With his NHL experience Grzelyck could certainly force himself onto the roster.
Milan Lucic is a name most should recognize. In his heyday he was a 55-65 point player who contributed across fantasy categories. He was a prominent playoff performer for the Bruins when they were winning cups. Most recently though he spent multiple seasons as a 20-25 point player across several teams, and then because of some off-ice issues hasn't played since four games in 2023-24. He currently is on a PTO in St. Louis where his style of play fits like a glove.
You can see the potential in a guy like Brayden Schenn who has been putting up points, hits, and shots as a 34-year-old. The problem is that Lucic was in the NHL as a 34-year-old and not doing that. Schenn has still been getting over 17 minutes a night and just shy of 50 percent of the team's power-play. I don't see either of those things happening for Lucic. He was most recently getting 11 or 12 minutes and a negligible power-play role. He is going to have to beat out younger versions of himself in Oscar Sundvist and Nick Bjugstad to have any meaningful deployment. While the name might pique some interest from long time managers, I am not optimistic here.
Basically, everything I said about Kevin Labanc last year still stands. He is kind of interesting. He was the 'next man up' in San Jose for a long time, but somehow never stepped up. He has 40- and 50-point seasons under his belt, is not super old, and seems like maybe a new scenario could do him good. He did get some games in 2024-25, but as mentioned above, didn't do quite enough with them. He is trying out now in Carolina who don't exactly have a shortage of forwards, but honestly Carolina seems like the kind of place that could do Labanc some good.
Not planning on draft here, but if he can make the team there are models in Jordan Martinook, and Eric Robinson of depth players who can sometimes do something for a manager. Oliver Kylington broke out somewhat in 2023-24 in Calgary, but hasn't managed to find consistent NHL games since. Like with some of the players we reviewed last year (like Tyson Barrie and Calen Addison) if he can somehow get himself on to a power play in Carolina things could be great for him. We have already seen guys like Tony DeAngelo and Shayne Gostisbehere specialize very effectively there. Unfortunately, it is a long shot. They have five very consistent NHL defense, plus another potential offensive dynamo in Alexander Nikishin.
Upside is very interesting, but I would say there is a pretty low probability of hitting it here. Conor Sheary once had a 50-point and a 70-point pace season. Unfortunately, in the remaining six seasons where he played reasonable numbers of games he was a 30- to 35-point player.
After spending most of 2024-25 in the minors he now has a PTO for the Rangers. The Rangers have a little bit of flux with Kaapo Kakko, Filip Chytil, and Chris Kreider transitioning out over the course of the 2024-25 season or off season. There are a lot of contenders though from depth roster players, to prospects with pedigree. Sheary seems to be there to add some competition and push those players, but as his career stats demonstrate, to provide any actual relevance he needs close to 16 minutes a night and power-play time, which feel pretty unlikely, even if he makes the roster.
At 25 and on this third potential team Oliver Wahlstrom's time is running out. Still, he was drafted 11th overall in 2018, played 227 games over the last five seasons, and has been close to a 40-point-pace twice. He had a chance at a change of scenery in 2024-25 with Boston who certainly needed a boost, but couldn't make it stick. San Jose has a lot of exciting prospects which on the one hand makes for a lot of competition, but also means a lot of players who haven't proven themselves yet. This move also feels a bit like a camp move to push the young players so not likely to result in relevance for Wahlstrom, but there could be a lot of moving parts in San Jose so if Wahlstrom can endear himself to the coaches there is some opportunity there.
Kevin Mandolese popped onto the scene briefly in 2022-23 in Ottawa and did fairly well in three NHL starts. He has been fine bouncing back and forth between the AHL and the ECHL but clearly couldn't find a home in Ottawa or in Colorado after 2024-25. Of the goalies on PTOs he is the only one to actually see NHL action, but still the prognosis isn't great. There are already two good prospect goalies in Montreal, plus Sam Montembeault as the Canadiens starter, which maybe leaves an AHL backup role. Best case is likely the off chance that they decide to leave both Jakub Dobes, and Jacob Fowler alternating in the minors to get more games and Mandolese can beat out Kaapo Kahkonen (who is actually under contract) for a backup gig. Like with a lot of these, if things broke exactly right, maybe interesting, but seems pretty unlikely for Mandolese.
That is all for this week.
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