Back in August we referenced this article posted on June 30th, 2022 to identify a few potential breakout candidates for 2026-27. The summary is that there tends to be a game count by which players start to break out, with the term "breakout" defined as a 25 percent year-over-year increase. What they found is that average size forwards need about 200 games, and defencemen or exceptionally small, or larger forwards need about 400 games. Please go check it out for more details, but one section in particular has caught my attention, and I have been using it for the past several years to identify potential breakout candidates in the off season.

"It’s always a great indicator if you see that a player finishes the previous season with 230 or 240 career games, and he just enjoyed a very strong second half. When you see that, then feel confident in a potential breakout for the year ahead."

In August then I ran the numbers and came up with the list of players below. It includes their 82-game pace from 25-26 and what that 25 percent year over year increase would amount to.

Today we are going to check in on their progress and see if that breakout really is imminent.

Dylan Guenther is not off to the fastest start. His 58-point pace is his lowest since playing 33 games in his rookie year 22-23. That is a far cry from almost a point per game, and certainly from a 95-point breakout. Over the summer we discussed how he likely needs to get closer to 19 minutes a night and to sustain strong underlying numbers to get close to that 90-point projection. So far, he is a little over 17 minutes a night, pretty much in line with the 25-26 season. The ice time might prevent him from reaching that next level, but it shouldn't stop him repeating a point per game adjacent season. The reason he is off to a slow start looks to be some bad luck. He has likely earned closer to that 78-point pace number. Definitely don't believe the 58-point pace, but until he gets more ice time it’s not looking great for a 95-point breakout either.

Dylan Holloway is on a 62-point pace to date, and honestly it looks about right. The Holloway, Robert Thomas, and Jimmy Snuggerud line has not been quite the firestorm they were to end the 25-26 season. Still, being on pace for his third consecutive 70ish point season in a row is a good place to be. There is still a chance for more as Thomas is well off his usual pace and a change there could help juice Holloway's numbers, but for now it looks more likely he repeats than breaks out further.

There were question marks for Pavel Dorofeyev over the summer. He was seeing ideal deployment in Vegas and moving to a new team is always a question mark. Still, given his contract and potential deployment there was reason for optimism. His start in New York has been far from ideal though. For the most part his role has been fine, playing in the top six and on the top power play, but the results have lagged behind. He is only on pace for 49 points. Under the hood it’s kind of a mixed bag. He and his teammates aren't scoring as often as he is used to, but Dorofeyev has been getting in on more of those goals than usual. New teams are almost always an adjustment and that seems to be dragging Dorofeyev down to start. He is still getting strong deployment, and his shot rates are consistent so hopefully he can rebound a bit, but here is another case where that breakout potential is looking pretty unlikely.

Adam Fantilli is seeing 21 minutes a night overall and over 75 percent of his team's power play, and he is shooting over three times a night for the first time in his career. He is being deployed like a top player and so it may come as a surprise that he is on a 35-point pace. Like with Guenther above, he does deserve much better though, he has earned closer to a 60-point pace. That is great, and probably a hopeful sign if you roster him, but far from the 74-point breakout projection. Things have been uneven in Columbus, and losing a star winger like Kirill Marchenko has to impact the top six and the power play. Still, Fantilli is the one of this group so far that has seen a tangible increase in time on ice and shot rates. What remains to be seen is if Columbus can just get things sorted enough for Fantilli to take advantage of this opportunity.

There were concerns for Marco Rossi over the summer given Vancouver's struggles the prior year and Rossi's limited role, even in a depleted lineup. The summary was best case seems like a repeat of a 60-ish point pace. Those concerns have been realized thus far. He is down a minute a night overall and since missing time has been consistently seeing less than 50 percent of the team's power-play. He seems to have earned a 40-point pace, and until he starts seeing more minutes and a better power-play role, he will be hard pressed to even reach 50 points.

Bobby McMann came with a huge asterisk over the summer. He made this list because of a kind of insane goal scoring run in the 18 games he played as a Kraken that propped up his second half numbers. The optimistic take was that he seems like he should be in line for top line and top power play for Seattle, but that still leaves an absolute best case of 60ish points. So far, he is definitely not living up to that. His 28-point pace is the worst of his career. On the plus side though he is seeing career high ice time, has career high shot rates, and career high power-play share (though it still isn't the top power play). As you might guess it does mean that he deserves better. He could very easily be scoring closer to a 50-point pace. That projection however is based off his underlying numbers in Toronto where players actually score and might not be entirely the right numbers to use in Seattle. While we can expect a bit of regression for McMann, as with so many of these players, a repeat of his 2025-26 season seems like a much more reasonable expectation than a further breakout.

Alex Laferriere is one of not many Kings who has certainly been worth your time so far. He is on a 60-point pace, seeing a career high average time on ice (at 19.5 minutes), and is skating with Artemi Panarin at even strength and on the power play. So far it looks pretty well deserved too. His personal shooting percentage is quite low, but his line mates are scoring a little more than expected so if those even out he sticks right around a 60-point projection. This is exactly the kind of thing we were looking for over the summer. A guy who is actually given more opportunity and some of it clicks.

That is all for this week.

Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

Professional Women's Hockey League

Hockey is For Everyone

Black Girl Hockey Club

Athletes for Hope