Analytics Advantage: Doan’s Broad Fantasy Appeal; Buium’s Role Reliance; Coleman’s Stability, and More

Stas Pupkov

2026-01-09

This week's group is built around players whose fantasy value is being driven by real, repeatable usage rather than short-term scoring spikes. Some are benefiting from expanded power-play roles, others from stable top-six minutes, and a few sit in the middle as speculative adds where the deployment still makes the risk worthwhile. The common thread is opportunity that has held long enough to matter. These are players to consider adding, holding, or stashing as December turns into January, depending on league format and roster needs.

Data Sources:

Player Data From Natural Stat Trick

Yahoo roster percentages via Frozen Tools.

Line combinations and power-play deployment via Daily Faceoff and Frozen Tools.

All information current as of January 7th, 2026.

Buffalo Sabres — Josh Doan (19 percent, F)

Doan's value right now is being driven almost entirely by role growth, and that growth has been real, not cosmetic. Through 41 games he has 28 points, pacing for the mid-50s over a full season, while averaging just over 16 minutes a night. More importantly, his power-play usage has quietly jumped into legitimate fantasy territory. Since early December, he has been living in the 2:30 to 3:00 PPTOI range most nights, and Quarter 2 shows that clearly with over three minutes per game and six power-play points in 20 games.

The line usage is exactly what you want to see from a breakout candidate: Doan has spent extended stretches next to Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, and even when Buffalo rotates combinations, he stays in offensive looks rather than sliding down into a checking role. The shot volume supports the scoring, too, as he's firing 2.5 shots per game. That gives the point pace some sustainability rather than relying on soft percentages or empty-calorie assists.

There is still some volatility here. He's not a locked-in star, and Buffalo's lines can be fluid when results dip. But the trend is moving the right way. His ice time is rising, his power-play role has expanded, and the production has followed that pattern rather than spiked randomly.

Takeaway: Doan is a role-driven add who looks increasingly legitimate. As long as he remains attached to Buffalo's top scorers and keeps meaningful PP1 usage, the shot rate and minutes give him a repeatable fantasy path rather than a short heater. He's worth rostering now and reassessing only if the power-play role slips.

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Be sure to head to the Dobber Shop to pick up a copy of the 2026 Dobber Hockey Midseason Fantasy Guide! Whether preparing for a championship run in the second half, trying to reach your head-to-head playoffs, or loading up for next year, there are projections, buy/sell options, prospects to watch for, and a whole lot more.

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Vancouver Canucks — Zeev Buium (43 percent, D)

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Buium's current fantasy value is best understood through the lens of transition. After being moved from Minnesota to Vancouver in the Quinn Hughes trade, he has been asked to step into a new structure, new partners, and a different power-play hierarchy almost immediately. The results have been uneven, but the usage tells you why he still matters.

The most important number is the power-play role. Through 42 games split between Minnesota and Vancouver, Buium already has 11 power-play points while averaging just over three minutes of PPTOI per game. That level of trust, especially for a rookie defenseman, creates a repeatable path to assists even when five-on-five production stalls. Vancouver has continued to lean on him in offensive situations despite the growing pains, which is the part that keeps him fantasy-relevant, just keep an eye on the PP role as Tom Willander has been taking some top minutes recently.

The downside is that his profile is extremely role-dependent. He is not driving value through shots (under one per game) or peripherals, so when the power-play production dips, the fantasy line thins out quickly. The quarter splits reflect that adjustment period, with PP efficiency slipping slightly as he settles into a new environment. That is not unexpected given the midseason move and usage changes, but it does add volatility.

Takeaway: Buium is a stash or speculative add, especially in points-focused leagues. The power-play role is real and valuable, but his fantasy usefulness lives and dies with that deployment. If the PP usage holds, the assists will follow. If it fades, he becomes much more matchup-dependent until he fully settles into Vancouver's system.

Calgary Flames — Blake Coleman (44 percent, F)

Coleman continues to be one of the safest category-floor forwards in fantasy because his role almost never changes. Through 43 games he has 21 points, but the real value lives in the workload and peripherals. He is averaging over 17 minutes a night, skating primarily in a top-six role, while piling up shots (2.4 per game) and hits (2.5 per game) at levels that prop up his value even when the scoring cools. That combination makes him far more than just a points streamer.

The quarter splits reinforce how steady the deployment has been. Coleman has spent most of the season stapled to Mikael Backlund, rotating wingers on the other side but never losing his spot in that trusted matchup role. The offensive production actually ticked up in Quarter 2 (13 points in 19 games), coinciding with slightly increased ice time and more consistent offensive-zone usage. He is not a power-play driver — his PPTOI remains modest — but that also means his fantasy value is insulated from power-play volatility.

The appeal here is predictability. Coleman gives you reliable shots, heavy hits, solid time on ice, and just enough scoring to matter in standard formats. There's no ceiling play baked in, but the floor is extremely stable, especially in leagues that reward peripherals.

Takeaway: Coleman is a strong hold in multi-cat formats and a steady depth option in standard leagues. As long as he stays locked into a top-six role with consistent minutes, his shot-and-hit profile keeps him roster-able even during scoring lulls.

Toronto Maple Leafs — Oliver Ekman-Larsson (41 percent, D)

OEL has quietly become one of those "deployment makes it real" defensemen again. Through 42 games he's at 25 points (0.60 P/GP pace) while playing 20:45 a night, and the Leafs are using him like a reliable top-four piece rather than a sheltered specialist. The scoring is assist-driven, but it's coming with enough peripheral stability to keep him from being a pure points-only add: 1.33 hits/g and 0.86 blocks/g is solid, especially when the minutes stay this high.

What makes him interesting is how consistent the situation has been. He's rotated partners — Benoit, Rielly, McCabe — but he hasn't fallen out of the "trust" bucket at even strength, and he's still seeing regular power-play work (1:44 PPTOI per game). The quarter split shows the story: Quarter 1 was a big assist run (15 points in 21 games) with steady PP touches, and even though the scoring cooled in Quarter 2, the role didn't disappear. That's the key difference between a hot streak and a roster-able profile: if the minutes and PP time remain, the points usually rebound.

Takeaway: OEL is a hold/add in standard leagues because the minutes are legit, the PP usage is enough to matter, and the Leafs' improving play raises the assist ceiling. He's not giving you elite shots, but the steady TOI + PP involvement makes him more "roster" than "stream" right now

Ottawa Senators — Dylan Cozens (56 percent, F)

Cozens is the cleanest "everything you want is in the role" add on your list. Through 42 games he's at 31 points (0.74 P/GP, 61-point pace) with 2.33 shots/g, a huge 2.83 hits/g, and 3:15 PPTOI per night. That's not a fringe streamer profile — that's a top-six, multi-cat producer who's also getting real power-play volume.

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The deployment is doing heavy lifting, and it's been trending the right way. His quarter splits show the minutes and PP usage increasing (PPTOI from 2:57 → 3:22, TOI from 17:17 → 18:03), while the production stayed level (15 points in each of the first two quarters). More importantly, the line combinations include actual ceiling looks: he's had runs with Brady Tkachuk/Drake Batherson and even time in a stacked five-forward look. That matters because it tells you the coaching staff is comfortable treating him as a core offensive piece, not a temporary plug-in.

The floor is also unusually sturdy for a forward because he's contributing even when he doesn't score. The faceoff volume is massive (262 FOW, 6.24 FOW/g) and the hits keep him relevant in banger setups, while the PP role gives him a repeatable path to points most nights. The only real "risk" note here is that Ottawa's lines are clearly willing to shuffle — but the shuffling is happening around him, not down from him.

Takeaway: Cozens is a strong hold/add in basically any format. The combination of top-six usage, heavy PP time, shot volume, and banger production is exactly the kind of repeatable fantasy profile you roster through January instead of chasing week-to-week noise.

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