The general rule is it takes until game 200 for "normal" sized forwards to break out, but game 400 for forwards who are larger or smaller framed to do so. All of the forwards in this month's poll were once seen as likely to be impactful, whether due to draft spot, performance before coming to the NHL, or showing early promise. Yet so far all have fallen short of expectations. The question is, can any of them still break out and become if not as consistently great as they were predicted to be, then at least to have one great season? That's for your votes to decide.

There are 19 forwards listed, since I wanted to include "None of them" as a voting option. All should've broken out by now given their games played total, but none have done so, which, for purposes of this poll, I'll define as scoring at a 65+ point pace in a season. The choices are listed below, with age, career best scoring rate prior to this season, and games played total through January 18th. To be realistic, I didn't include anyone who's appeared in over 500 games, as chances are pretty low they'd connect the dots given they've yet to do so already. I realize some are not far beyond 200 games played, but I felt they merited inclusion. You should vote for any forward(s) who you believe, before all is said and done on their NHL careers, will score at a 65+ point rate at least once, with the key being rate, not necessarily actual points. The choices are in alphabetical order, and a link to cast your votes is at the end of the column.

Matty Beniers (Age = 23; Career Best Scoring Rate: 58; Games Played: 296)

Technically he scored at a 74-point pace in 2021-22, but in just ten games, so I'm not counting it. Although he won the Calder in 2023, he only posted 57 points in 80 games. Then in the next two seasons he produced at barely above a point per every other game. He's been faring better of late; but he doesn't shoot a lot and has mediocre IPPs and 5×5 team SH%, meaning he might not be capable of seeing enough gains in scoring to qualify.

Ross Colton (Age = 29; Career Best Scoring Rate: 41; Games Played: 377)

He's almost 30, but only became an NHL regular at 25. He's looked great at times, putting together multiple game goal streaks. His big issue is he's only played for elite teams, failing to find a foothold in the top six or more than PP scraps. He'll be a UFA after 2026-27, and on a new team he might get the chance to strut his stuff.

Joel Farabee (Age = 25; Career Best Scoring Rate: 57; Games Played: 463)

A former 14th overall pick, he scored at a 57-point pace at age 20, leading many to figure he was just scratching the surface. Since then though, he's fared worse, including a mere 25 points last season. In his first full campaign with the Flames he's not improving, although with him still only 25 there is hope he connects the dots at some point.

Morgan Frost (Age = 26; Career Best Scoring Rate: 47; Games Played: 358)

Dealt with Farabee to the Flames, Frost has likewise fared even worse there, although not quite as poorly. Frost did produce at a 47-point rate in back-to-back seasons. Slightly older at 26, Frost looked to be doing well this season before running cold of late. If Nazem Kadri is moved, he could see his TOI increase and receive better overall deployment.

Barrett Hayton (Age = 25; Career Best Scoring Rate: 43; Games Played: 335)

With 28 points in his final 40 games of 2024-25, Hayton looked like he was ready to pop. But despite great deployment at ES, and some PP time, he's playing his worst hockey ever. Some think he needs a change of scenery. Either way, at only 25 there remains realistic hope.

Simon Holmstrom (Age = 24; Career Best Scoring Rate: 49; Games Played: 247)

For a while the hyped young winger on Long Island was Oliver Wahlstrom; but it's safe to say he's very unlikely to pan out. Enter Holmstrom, who also was a first rounder and produced at a 49 point pace last season. He has some decent production thus far, and that's despite hardly shooting at all and getting almost no PP time. He should continue to stay in the top six due to the lack of better options for the Isles, giving him a chance to get the deployment to take it to the next level.

Kaapo Kakko (Age = 24; Career Best Scoring Rate: 46; Games Played: 410)

The second overall pick looked to have finally started to find his footing upon arriving in Seattle last season. He's done decent this season as well; yet he cannot manage to command top six minutes or PP1 time. Just about to turn 25, and not far above his "big guy" breakout threshold, maybe somehow he can find a way to up his scoring, even if to a level nowhere near that was expected when he was drafted second overall.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi (Age = 25; Career Best Scoring Rate: 43; Games Played: 505)

Speaking of early draft picks, Kotkaniemi was grabbed third overall in 2018, and yes, technically he has played over 500 games, but barely, plus he's still just 25, so I included him. It is amazing to think what Carolina gave up to bring him to the team and what they signed him for, given how poorly he's since fared. But there is talk of him getting moved again, and perhaps that will spark him. Otherwise, he could be one of the biggest busts in recent memory.

Alexis Lafrenierre (Age = 24; Career Best Scoring Rate: 57; Games Played: 429)

How better to follow-up players who were drafted third and second overall than one who was the first overall pick, which is what Laffy was in 2020? Many were surprised when he didn't hit the ground running, but were encouraged when he rose to a 57-point pace in 2023-24, with a very strong finish to the season. Since then though he's been stuck with a scoring pace in the 40s, and this despite still being in the top six and getting more PP usage. He's only 24, but there do not appear to be many reasons for hope.

Matias Maccelli (Age = 25; Career Best Scoring Rate: 63; Games Played: 261)

The Finland native nearly hit the 65-point pace mark in 2022-23 and then followed up with a 57 point pace the next season. He was barely at a point-per-every-other-game last season, and has been markedly worse this season despite getting chances with the best on the Leafs. He has had very solid IPPs though, plus is still young enough and not that far removed from game 200 as to envision him rising to a 65-point pace down the road.

Connor McMichael (Age = 25; Career Best Scoring Rate: 57; Games Played: 286)

After posting 20 points in his first 22 games last season, it seemed like McMichael had already broken out. Then he slowed, finishing with 57 points, which was still strong, but disappointing given how hot he was out of the gate. For 2025-26, his pace is lower, although explainable by a very low SH%, plus his IPPs are still quite good. Having just turned 25, plus still below 300 career games, it seems plausible for him to have at least one season of a 65+ point pace in him.

Dawson Mercer (Age = 24; Career Best Scoring Rate: 56; Games Played: 376)

With 14 points in his first 13 games this season, Mercer looked like he was going to break out. The injury to Jack Hughes stalled his scoring, and it hasn't recovered. Still, he doesn't turn 25 until October, giving him plenty of time to make this happen.

Casey Mittsteladt (Age = 27; Career Best Scoring Rate: 59; Games Played: 477)

Producing at just under a 60-point pace in both 2022-23 and 2023-24, many felt that Mittelstadt, a former eighth overall pick, was finally going to make the leap. But he stalled in Colorado, and has not been able to get a foothold in the top six for the Bs. But he's producing well on a per minute basis, and is a UFA after next season, such that it still seems plausible we've not seen the best from him as yet.

Alex Newhook (Age = 24; Career Best Scoring Rate: 51; Games Played: 477)

When the Avs opted to not re-sign Nazem Kadri, it seemingly showed a huge vote of confidence in Newhook. Yet the next offseason they dealt him to the Habs. Things looked good for him upon arrival in Montreal, scoring at a 51-point pace in his first full season. But his production took a major nosedive last season. For 2025-26 he was off to a nice start, but then got hurt. With him turning 25 at the end of January, and given what he's shown, there should be chances for him to shine.

Jake Neighbours (Age = 23; Career Best Scoring Rate: 45; Games Played: 247)

After 27 goals in 2023-24, Neighbors has responded by shooting less and with his TOI not getting any better. Still, this is technically just his fourth full season, and as he's not too far above his breakout threshold, such that he could piece things together at some point, especially since he figures to be a lock for the top six for the foreseeable future.

Cole Perfetti (Age = 24; Career Best Scoring Rate: 50; Games Played: 255)

Many felt this would be Perfetti's season to shine, with Nikolaj Ehlers having departed. It's possible he might be the new Ehlers, with limited TOI and not on PP1. But the Jets don't have many better options beyond their potent top line, making it so Perfetti ought to continue to get decent deployment. As we know, Ehlers scored at a 65+ point pace several times despite ice time headwinds, so it's indeed possible Perfetti could as well.

Jack Quinn (Age = 24; Career Best Scoring Rate: 58; Games Played: 225)

After point-per-game production in his last 13 games of 2024-25, many felt he would be assured to break out if only he could avoid injuries. Well, his health has been fine, but the breakout has yet to occur. For now, he's not on PP1, nor playing with Tage Thompson; plus, Buffalo has a glut of wingers, making it difficult for one to shine. Yet with Alex Tuch a good bet to leave as a UFA if not traded beforehand, it might give Quinn the chance to finally make gains.

Cole Sillinger (Age = 22; Career Best Scoring Rate: 41; Games Played: 333)

Despite being only 22, Sillinger has seen action in over 330 NHL games. As of yet he has never produced above a point-per-every-other-game, which is for sure a disappointment given he was a 12th overall pick. The Blue Jackets have enough talent at wing that he's not automatically going to get prime deployment, creating the classic situation of him needing ice time to thrive, but not thriving enough to get ice time. Again though, he's not even 23, so giving up on him now would seem premature.

Eeli Tolvanen (Age = 26; Career Best Scoring Rate: 45; Games Played: 391)

This season has seen Tolvanen make nice strides, with a career best TOI. If his SH% was what it had been, he'd be doing even better. He could be a late bloomer, and should get long looks in Seattle due to his combo of scoring and grit. I would not write him off.

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There you have it – 19 forwards who've thus far fallen short of expectations. Vote for however many you believe will ever – even just once! – score at a 65+ point pace in an NHL season. If you believe none will, there is a 20th choice for that. And remember, it's scoring rate that counts, not total points, meaning they'd "qualify" if they don't actually post 65 points, so long as their pace is at or above that rate. Click here to cast your vote(s).

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Questions for Mailbag Column

My monthly mailbag still had room for a couple more questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.