Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the sadly now dormant "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thought of a real-life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going indefinitely. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" sample. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired NHL defenseman

CLUE #2 – I played in the WHL; and despite not being an offensive force, I was a first-round pick

CLUE #3 – I had 120+ PIM in two of my three WHL seasons, but never 100+ PIM in a single season of my NHL career

CLUE #4 – I debuted in the NHL as a teen

CLUE #5 – I didn't morph into a scorer in the NHL, not only never finishing a season with even point per every other game numbers, but only three times managing 20+ points in a season

CLUE #6 – At one time I was the all-time leader in games played by a defenseman for the team that drafted me, but someone since surpassed me

CLUE #7 – I helped lead my first team to the Stanley Cup finals, but we lost

CLUE #8 –I did eventually win a Stanley Cup as a player on another team

CLUE #9 – I played over 1000 NHL games, hitting the mark in the same season as winning the Stanley Cup

CLUE #10 – I was drafted in the 1990s

CLUE #11 – Although not born in Canada, I represented that country internationally on multiple occasions, including once in the Olympics

CLUE #12 – The teams I played for, in order, were Calgary, Buffalo, and LA

CLUE #13 – I was born in Brazil

CLUE #14 – My initials are R.R.

So, who am I? Hopefully you figured it out. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who I am. Now onto regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming.

Topic #1 – In H2H, 14 team, 19-man roster, limited keeper (draft round matters) with categories of G / A / P / PPP / PIM / FW / BS // W / SV / GAA, a team is looking to upgrade its goalies prior to their league's playoff. How should these netminders be ranked for the rest of 2025-26: Sergei Bobrovsky, Darcy Kuemper, Jet Greaves, Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom?

Let's start with Ullmark. After being part of a historic Bruins team in 2022-23, things have gone downhill, with his GAA increasing, and SV% and QS% decreasing, in two straight seasons, and on pace to each do so again. Even worse – he was acquired by Ottawa to be a true #1; yet despite being paid $8.3M per season, Ullmark has yet to play in 50+ games even once.

I realize this season has involved off-ice factors for Ullmark, so perhaps those made a bad situation worse. But this question asked about the rest of 2025-26; and from what I've seen thus far, I have zero faith in Ullmark. The only question is how far below the top he'll rank.

Kuemper had a solid Q1, but has seen his GAA rise and SV% fall in each subsequent quarter. Anton Forsberg had looked strong of late, and even started two of three games going into the break, but he was not solid in them, so he likely lost his chance to stake a claim to more starts. Thus, I think it would take a major implosion by Kuemper, plus a far more sustained stretch of strong play by Forsberg, for Forsberg to be even a 1B rather than a pure back-up.

Greaves had a stretch where he started 14 of 15 games, including one back-to-back, which is almost unheard of nowadays, and this all while Elvis Merzlikins was healthy. But then the team changed coaches, and Rick Bowness seems inclined to lean on Elvis Merzlikins more, although some feel that could be to showcase the Latvian in hopes of facilitating a trade. And for sure Greaves has the better stats of the pair, with above a 60% quality start rate and only one start in six being a really bad start. He's the future, and that future might be now if Elvis is dealt.

As for Bobrovsky, the short offseasons due to the sustained success of the Panthers, coupled with his age, look to be finally catching up to him, as it took him until only game 38 to have as many Really Bad Starts as he did in 54 games in 2024-25 plus his QS% is just 50%. The return of Matthew Tkachuk hasn't helped, as Bob's Q3 numbers are markedly worse than those he had in the first half. It seems like the Panthers were trying to rest Bob more in hopes that will lead to righting his ship. Yet with Florida needing to improve just to make the playoffs, they likely won't have the luxury to keep doing so; thus, he should play often. But how well is the question.

Markstrom's season has been a disaster; however, the silver lining is he's gone from awful in Q1, to quite lousy in Q2, to merely subpar in Q3. That is a positive trend at least, as is the fact he's started eight of the last 12 games, something which hadn't occurred since he returned from injury. The Devils know they have a capable second goalie in Jake Allen, but Allen hasn't played even a minute in the postseason since 2019-20, so my guess is the Devils try to have Markstrom play his way back into form.

Given that two of the three goalie categories are volume-based, number of starts will matter. As such, I "like" Kuemper most, followed by Markstrom, then Bob, Greaves, and Ullmark. But the asterisk is if Merzlikins is traded, Greaves would be right there at the top.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team league, keep–8, weekly H2H league with 55 moves allowed for the regular season and an additional 8 for the playoffs, and rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 2G, 4D, plus 5 Bench and 4IR, and categories of G, A, PPP, +/-, SOG, PIM, GWG, Hits & W, SV%, GAA, a GM has the following on their roster:

C – Jack Hughes (C/LW), Nathan Mackinnon (C), Boone Jenner (C/LW)
LW – Tim Stutzle (C/LW), Emil Heineman (LW/RW), Lawson Crouse (LW/RW),
RW – Mikko Rantanen (LW/RW), Alex Laferriere (LW/RW), Eeli Tolvanen (LW/RW)
D – Rasmus Dahlin, Cale Makar, Moritz Seider, K'Andre Miller, Ivan Provorov, Justin Faulk
G – Dustin Wolf, Lukas Dostal, Devin Cooley
IR – Pierre-Luc Dubois (C/LW), Gabriel Landeskog (LW/RW), Elias Lindholm (C)

They received an offer of Igor Shesterkin for Seider by the first-place team. Should they accept?

So there's 96 keepers, and over 200 players on rosters at a given time without factoring in IR spots. And 3 of 11 categories relate to goalies, i.e., 27%; but goalies make up only 16% of active rosters.

What does that mean? Goalies are not hugely important, especially with only one category being tied to volume. Still, Shesterkin is a unicorn of sorts in that he has stellar peripherals plus starts enough games to get wins. Nevertheless, New York is all but assured to continue to be a very bad team for several years, which won't do Shesterkin any favors, although for what it's worth they've been terrible this season and yet he's still fared well. In short, he's the real deal, and any offer to acquire him needs to be given strong consideration.

Seider is no slouch of course. He's improving year to year in scoring, while contributing quite well in several multi-cat areas. Still, he blocks more than he hits, and blocks do not count. It also seems, in looking at the team's roster, that players who hit can be readily obtained. And with Seider, there's a risk Axel Sandin-Pellikka ascends to take his PP1 role, which would certainly hurt his scoring.

Ultimately, I think the decision boils down to looking at what the keepers would be with Seider versus with Igor. Keeper locks are MacKinnon, Makar, Hughes, Dahlin, Rantanen, and Stutzle. That's six, meaning seven with Seider or Shesterkin. Looking at the other options, If Seider is not traded, then a goalie likely should be kept, with Wolf being my pick due to his peripherals. If the trade is made for Igor, then a second goalie keeper could be overdoing it, although maybe not, as Shesterkin and Wolf should be a nice tandem to own, plus would allow the team to not have to focus on goalies at the draft. Plus, no other skaters scream "must keep" beyond those six.

Since there are six top tier skater keepers, but then a rather precipitous drop off after those, I'd be inclined to keep Seider and one of either Wolf or Dostal (likely Wolf). I like that option better than trading Seider and then keeping Igor and either a subpar skater or a second goalie. So even though the trade seems fair, or perhaps even more weighted to getting Shesterkin, I'd stick with Seider in view of the specific circumstances.

Topic #3 – In a 16 Team, H2H Weekly, Cap ($95.5M) league with categories of G (6 points for F, 8 for D), A (5 points for F. 6 for D), +/- (1 point), GWG (2 points), Shootout Goals (1 point), Shootout GWG (1 point); W (12 points), GA (-1 point), SA (0.25 point), SHO (8 points), a GM's roster is as follows, with salaries denoted:

C (3): Matty Beniers ($7.14M), Anton Lundell ($5M), Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6M)
LW (3): Artemi Panarin ($11.64M), Owen Tippett ($6.2M), Kevin Fiala ($7.88M)
RW (3): JT Miller ($8M), Mackie Samoskevich ($0.78M),Travis Konecny ($8.75M)
D (4): Jackson LaCombe ($0.93M),Josh Morrissey ($6.25M), Artyom Levshunov ($0.98M), Pavel Mintykov ($0.92M)
G (1): Igor Shesterkin ($11.5M)
Bench: Berkley Catton ($0.94M), Gabe Perreault ($0.9M), Konsta Helenius ($0.94M),Nick Robertson ($1.83M), Nazem Kadri ($7M), Simon Nemec ($0.92M)
IR: None

They recently dealt Igor Chernyshov for Berkly Catton. Was it a wise trade?

The first thing that stands out to me is the emphasis on goals among skaters. Not only are goals worth more than assists in general, but there is added value for game-winning goals, shootout goals, and even game-winning shootout goals. Obviously the last three are difficult to draft for; but not impossible. Chernyshov was not with the Sharks long enough to see if they'd have used him in the shootout, although what we do know is they've gone to a shootout three times, with only Macklin Celebrini being used in each instance. Seattle, on the other hand, has seen five of their games be decided by shootout, with three of those being decided in three shooters, and two going to a fourth shooter. But no player has been a shooter in all five instances, and only one in four of the five shootouts. Thus, there may be a more viable path for Catton to be used in the shootout.

Looking at their numbers prior to the NHL, neither Catton nor Chernyshov has shown signs of being a sniper. Chernyshov has more SOG per 60 minutes this season, but both were only sparingly used on the PP. In short, the emphasis on goals in the categories would not appear to favor either player.

As for what their futures might hold, Catton is on a team that lacks offensive firepower. That might lead to him getting more favorable deployment, albeit not under circumstances which will necessarily lead to him scoring a lot, as Seattle is stingy with ice time in general, plus leans on its PP1 less than nearly any other team. As for Chernyshov, in his brief NHL tenure this season he was used at times alongside Celebrini, which is about as great a gig as one can have. But if he fails to earn a spot on the top line, will he be able to produce, or even be on PP1? Tough to say with respect to both

In the end, even though I have a higher confidence in Catton being an NHL regular and getting a chance to succeed, his circumstances might not be ideal given the team for which he plays. As such, I'd have likely stood pat, not just because I like the home run potential of Chernyshov, but unless I see a trade as a clear win, I'm not inclined to make it, as refraining allows a possibly better deal to come, plus avoids seller's remorse.

Topic #4 – In a points–only league, how would the following players be ranked: Nick Suzuki, Wyatt Johnston, Lukas Raymond?

Spoiler alert, if you go to the Forum thread, you will see this has been hotly debated. So, for sure I knew I had to include it in the next Forum Buzz.

And right the outset, I'll say that all three are already great fantasy assets, with any fantasy GM being lucky to own any of them in any keeper league format. The major difference among them that is immediately apparent is age, with Suzuki being 26, while Raymond turns 24 next month and Johnston will be 23 in May. But all three are poised to do as well, or even better, for many years to come. Yes, perhaps Suzuki will have an "expiration date" that is earlier than the other two, but it should not be for quite a while. So, although age seems like it should be a factor, I feel it's actually a red herring, mattering little to not at all for purposes of evaluating them amongst each other.

Looking first at Suzuki, what can you say about a player who has improved his scoring pace in each and every season he's been in the NHL? That is no small feat since he's on year seven of his career and he was already at a 60-point pace in his second season. Yet he's done so, and may still have room to further improve, even if only slightly, as he is at 2.1 SOG per game, with him having been as high as 2.3 in two prior seasons. And although his overall TOI seems to have settled around 21:00 per game, his PPTOI could rise, because he's already out there for three quarters of his team's man advantage minutes, and Montreal is 20th in terms of PP opportunities, versus Detroit being fifth and Dallas 15th. Also, Suzuki's always great SH%, despite technically being above his career rate, is a notch below what it was the prior three seasons. And even his secondary assist rate of 36.2% is below the 44% and 43% from the prior two seasons. His PP IPP is high, even for him, so that might mean giving back a few points; however, in the grand scheme of things he seems like he has it in him to be a 100-point player, and I'd say he is now a 90-point floor player.

Johnston goes into the Olympic break on a cold stretch, with only nine points in his last 13 games, this after 27 points in 21 second quarter contests. For Q3 his SOG rate is actually higher, and his TOIs are essentially unchanged. Interestingly, in 2024-25 he had one superb quarter, but was at or under point per game production in the other three. The difference is his TOIs are way up versus last season, such that higher scoring would be expected. With Johnston, it's also a good news bad news situation in terms of the man advantage, as it took him only until game 49 to equal the 25 PPPts he had all of last season. And he stands now at 29 PPPts in 57 games, with 18 of the PPPts being PPGs. Last season he had a very solid 11 PPG on 56 PPSOG, whereas he has already surpassed that PPSOG total with 57 for 2025-26. But tallying 18 PPGs in 57 PPSOG is not sustainable, which is a concern since those are the majority of his PPPts, and PPPts comprise half his total points. Johnston's secondary assist rate is only 33.5%, yet that is his norm, so we can't bank on a boost from that rising. And although his IPPs are quite solid, yet again they are not at 70% either overall or on the PP. With him past his breakout threshold, and not realistically able to receive much better deployment, yet still being barely over a point per game, it makes me wonder if he has it in him to be a 100-point player down the road. To me, he's a bankable point-per-game guy, with 90+ upside.

Raymond also entered the break cold, causing him to dip below point-per-game scoring. Despite his stellar 2024-25 output, he's not been bestowed with more overall TOI or even PPTOI. His SOG rate has held steady though, and his PPPt scoring pace is not too far below what it was last season. But the reality is if a player fails to average at least 19:00 per game, it is more difficult to be even a 90+ point player. Even 30 seconds makes an apparent difference, as of the 272 instances of a forward playing 41+ games while scoring at a 1.1 points per game pace dating back to 2000-01, only 14 did so despite averaging under 18:30 per game. Upping the TOI average to 19:00 does add another 23 players; however, we're still talking about just 13% who managed the feat without averaging 19:00 TOI. And if we look at the 37 skaters who did it while averaging under 19:00 per game, only seven averaged fewer SOG per game than Raymond did last season. In short, if he doesn't shoot more or take the ice more, banking on him being even a 90-point player is iffy. And with Raymond well beyond his BT, he isn't likely to improve more moving ahead. Of course, it's always possible for a player to see TOI gains; but if Raymond hasn't averaged more than 2.3 SOG per game in a season as yet, chances are low that he'll see that rise by much, if at all. As such, I see him as a point per game player, with hopes of hitting 90+ at some point, but perhaps not regularly.

So, as I said in the thread, my choice is Suzuki. He's the oldest, but he gets tons of TOI and can produce despite not being a high-volume shooter. Johnston would be my second choice, as he seems like a player who'll be at or near 90 in most seasons, while Raymond is in last due to his TOI and SOG rates placing a realistic cap on his ceiling.

Topic #5 – In a points–only cap league, a GM has to justify salaries of some of their forwards. With this in mind, will Andrei Svechnikov, Kirill Marchenko, and/or Juraj Slafkovky be consistent 70+ point scorers over the next 3-4 seasons?

Let's start with Svechnikov. After no points in eight games to start the season, he's produced at a point per game rate. This puts him at the 70- to 75-point scoring rate he'd achieved three straight seasons before a disappointing 2024-25. In two of his prior seasons of 70+ scoring rate his SOG per game was 3.2, while it's only 2.6 now, but he also had a 70+ rate averaging only 2.4 per game. And his TOI also tracks with two of his 70+ point pace seasons, plus is not far beyond his 400-game "big guy" breakout threshold. There are still concerns, notably that even in his prior 70+ point scoring rate seasons, and for 2025-26, the 'Canes have never shot 9.0% at 5×5 with him on the ice. He also has never had an IPP, either overall or on the PP, of 70%, in fact only being close once. What this suggests is he's a player who is doing as well as he is largely because of his deployment and those around him. Still, if the goal is 70+ points he seems like a pretty safe bet.

As for Marchenko, he has far less data from which to draw, but he's trending very well, with more SOG and PPPts per game this season than last, after seeing those both increase from 2023-24 to 2024-25. His PPTOI is ticking upward too, as is his TOI. He's also faring this well despite his SH% being a bit low for him. His secondary assist rate is above his norm, yet his team SH% at 5×5 is lower, for a wash. He's also on pace not only for his IPPs to both rise again, but for them to be above the key 70% threshold I associate with elite players. Long story short, not only do I think he can sleepwalk to a 70+ point rate in future seasons, but after this season, he'll likely be an 80-point floor player.

Slafkovsky is the only one of the three not to have already produced at a 70+ point pace. But he is also the youngest by nearly four years. And his trends have been good, with upticks in TOI and SOG rate this season. His SH% is a bit high for him and his IPPs remain quite lousy. The team shot 11.7% at 5×5 with him on the ice last year, but it's nearly as high for 2025-26 thus far, which is reassuring. But the low IPPs are a concern, as he's not even come close to 60% overall or on the PP. So him being out there is helping goals get scored, but he's not a points magnet. As a larger frame player, however, he has time left to fully hit his stride. Still, IPPs tend to not get much better, versus other metrics. Can he be a 70+ point player? Quite possibly, especially since he is clearly a net positive despite not being a big scorer and points still might come.

In sum, I think Marchenko is a lock for 70+ per season, with a realistic chance a more. The other two are less certain, although Svech likely can pull it off given his past and this season, whereas Slaf is iffier.

Topic #6 – In a 6–team, points–only, keeper cap league, a GM has been offered Will Smith, Matvei Michkov, Matthew Knies, and Zeev Buium for Jason Robertson, Josh Doan, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Shanye Gostisbehere. They're concerned about Robertson's contract being too large to swallow. Given this, and their roster -see below – should they accept?

F: Nikita Kucherov, Jack Hughes, Brandon Hagel, Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Tim Stutzle, Dylan Guenther, Beckett Sennecke, Doan, Dorofeyev
D: Jake Sanderson, Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Brandt Clarke, Gostibehere
G: Connor Hellebuyck, Dustin Wolf, Yaroslav Askarov

I count a total of 21 players on their roster. If that is how many can be rostered by all teams, then only 126 players are owned leaguewide. It also means that, even more so than usual, a trade is won by getting the best player, since there should be no shortage of quite decent guys to grab from the waiver wire at any time.

Also, the smaller the league, the less benefit to tanking, or stockpiling future assets. This too is because there should be no shortage of options out there. For certain Smith, Michkov, Knies and Buium are highly regarded, and chances are at least a couple turn into top tier talents, plus even now Smith and Knies would be upgrades to Doan and arguably Dorofeyev as well. I also am not opposed to selling high on Ghost, who is playing unsustainably well. But giving up JRob would be a tough pill to swallow. And although it's not wrong to be concerned about the cap hit for his new deal, keep in mind that the likes of Kyle Connor, Mitch Marner, and Rantanen all got $12M AAV deals, so I can't see Robertson making more, in which case this team ought to be able to stomach that.

Also, if they make this deal, then what? By the time those four players fully hit their stride, most likely Kucherov, Hedman and Hellebuyck will be trending downward. And although this team has some young talent, I think the GM would be better suited to try to play for the here and now. So, I'm not doing this deal, but trying to trade Ghost and, if costs are a concern, Marner rather than Robertson, as Marner has not taken the world by storm in Vegas, but is still a player with very high name value.

THE ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS……….Robyn Regehr!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.