In a Ramblings two months ago, I wrote about player market share of shots, shot attempts, and expected goals. To be brief about it, market share is what percentage of shots, shot attempts, or expected goals that accumulate with a given player on the ice are taken by that player. So, if the Minnesota Wild land 1000 shots on goal in a season with Kirill Kaprizov on the ice, and Kaprizov takes 250 of those 1000 shots, then his market share is 25%.

The main reason we use this measure is to try and find players whose teams might not generate a lot with them on the ice, but who are responsible for a big percentage of whatever the team can generate. We can also capture big changes in players graduating from lesser roles. To do this, we are using data from Evolving Hockey, evaluating only forwards today to see what they've done so far in the 2025-26 season, and compare it to the two seasons from 2023-25.

Last note: we are doing relative change from the 2023-25 seasons, not total change. So, if a player goes from 25% of market share to 30%, that is a jump of 20% [(30 – 25) / 25] and not a jump of 5%.

The red and blue lines denote a change of at least one standard deviation above/below average, or at least the 84^th/16^th percentile of improvements.

Marat Khusnutdinov (Boston Bruins)

Considering that Khusnutdinov had just 16 points in his first 91 games of his NHL career and has 26 points in 52 games so far in 2025-26, it shouldn't be much of a surprise that there have been some improvements under the hood. It is the extent of the improvements that are impressive as he has the largest increase in both market share of shot attempts and expected goals:

The overall numbers still aren't large with Khusnutdinov just over a shot per game this season, and as he's not a player who racks up hits or blocks at a high rate. That means there is still very meagre fantasy value here. He has gotten some top PP time when the Bruins had injuries or they wanted a brief change, but he's still not a focal point of the offence. All the same, with Elias Lindholm not living up to his contract, and the potential for Khusnutdinov to play the wing if things don't work at centre, we have seen him move up the lineup a few times this year. If he can keep these improvements going, this is someone to keep an eye on for next season.

Justin Brazeau (Pittsburgh Penguins)

It is easy to look at Brazeau shooting 19.2% against a career average of 13.3% prior to this season and write off his 2025-26 campaign as being built on luck. There is always some level of luck involved, but he has the fifth-largest jump in market share of shot attempts and third-largest jump in market share of expected goals:

With 1.9 shots, 1.3 hits, and 0.6 blocks per game, Brazeau has some modest multi-cat appeal. To really be valuable, he needs to produce goals and assists, and being at a 53-point/82-game pace certainly qualifies. The problem is he's not a key cog of the forward group, averaging under 13 minutes a game and earning less than 25% of the power-play time (per Frozen Tools). The real test will be next season and whether Brazeau can make these changes permanent, because if this improvement persists, he should be a roster regular in banger leagues of all sizes.

Pontus Holmberg (Tampa Bay Lightning)

A few weeks ago, Holmberg scored his eighth goal of the season in his 40^th game, which set a career-high total. He also needs just three more points for 20, which would also be a career-high mark. Holmberg is known for his defensive play, so any offensive improvement along with that stellar defence (which has been good again this year) would make him a valuable player to the Lightning, and more valuable to fantasy managers. In our sample of forwards, he has the second-largest increase in shot attempt market share and is inside the 84^th percentile barrier for increase in xG market share:

Whether this is a genuine change in Holmberg's approach, or playing with Yanni Gourde and Zemgus Girgensons puts him on a line with two forwards who don't shoot very much, is a fair question. And the peripherals are stronger than Khusnutdinov's, but with 1.4 shots, 0.5 blocks, and 0.9 hits per game, are still not high enough to warrant 'must-roster' status in multi-cat formats. Holmberg might be a streaming option in banger leagues depending on Tampa's schedule, but that's it for now, unless there are further improvements.

Cole Perfetti (Winnipeg Jets)

Overall, Perfetti has not had the fantasy season managers were hoping for as his goals and points per game are all four-year-low rates. Whether it's the departure of Nikolaj Ehlers, Perfetti battling injury (he missed the first month of the season), some regression from teammates, or a combination of factors, Perfetti hasn't taken the leap we hoped to see from a player who crossed the 200-game threshold late last season and looked primed for more responsibilities.

The good news is that there has been a genuine improvement in his market shares:

Perfetti's market share of shot attempts is the sixth-largest jump in our sample with an increase in xG market share right on the 84^th percentile border. Shooting 7.5% is unfortunate, seeing as his two-year average was 13%, but there is more good news.

The upside for Perfetti is that in his 42 games this season, just 46.5% of his shot attempts are turning into shots on goal. Last year, that number was 50.4%. He is also shooting just 7.5% against a two-year average of 13%. With his rate of shot attempts rising, and potential positive regression in turning attempts into shots on goal as well as his shooting percentage, there is hope for Perfetti's final 26 games. Then again, maybe the Jets are just cooked, and this is a lost year.

Will Smith (San Jose Sharks)

Appropriately so, Macklin Celebrini is getting a lot of the attention in San Jose. That also overshadows the improvements Smith has made this season as his rate of goals, assists, and shots per game have all taken significant leaps. And, as I wrote over on Bluesky, it's not just about Smith playing with Celebrini, either, as Smith's rate of primary points at 5-on-5 declines just 3% when he's not on the ice with Celebrini.

In all his minutes, the production increases Smtih has seen is mirrored by his increase in market share of shot attempts and xG:

Being on a team with Celebrini will keep a lot of the spotlight away from Smith, but for savvy fantasy managers, that's a good thing. Some people may want to attribute Smith's success to skating with his superstar teammate, but that isn't the reality, and there are underlying improvements to show why that's the case. Smith looks to be blossoming into a genuine star in the league.

And now, let's look at the other end of the spectrum to investigate players who've seen large declines in market shares.

Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils)

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about why Bratt is a good buy-low option for the post-Olympic stretch, and I still think that's the case. With that said, it has to be acknowledged that while he (and New Jersey as a whole) has been a bit unlucky, there has been a genuine decline in Bratt's market share of shot attempts and expected goals, with both being at least one standard deviation worse than average:

The good news is that because Bratt is landing a higher percentage of his shot attempts on goal (49.8%) compared to last year (46%), his per-game shot volume is virtually identical to his 2024-25 campaign. With a normal shooting percentage, Bratt's goal-scoring hasn't been the issue. The issue has been the goal-scoring of his teammates, and with the power play struggling and Jack Hughes' health an open question, there is significant downside for the rest of the season. If Bratt starts missing the net more often and his teammates don't start scoring more? Things could get ugly.

Filip Forsberg (Nashville Predators)

Another star winger seeing big declines in his market share of shot attempts and expected goals is the star winger from Nashville. It has led to Forsberg's rate of shots per game fall to an eight-season low though shooting 13.9% has kept him close to a 35-goal pace. It is a good thing, too, because he's one of the forwards with market share declines that fall below both thresholds for largest declines in the league:

At 1.34 goals per 60 minutes, Forsberg's goal-scoring rate has declined from an average of 1.54 goals/60 across the prior two seasons. That change, across 82 games, means a decline of about five goals, which is significant. The concern is if Forsberg hits a cold streak like he did in the first two months (9 goals in 27 games), there won't be enough shot volume to keep his high-end production afloat. That is a bridge to cross if/when we get there, but something that his fantasy managers have to keep in mind.