With the draft lottery in the recent past now, the world championships underway, and the Stanley Cup final nearly upon us, there aren't many eyes already turned to July first. However, as I always try to publish in the spring, I have my final list of projected annual cap hits for each of the top free agents. This year we're going with 65, because below the $2 million mark, there are a lot more politics involved with which players get the money and the contracts, as compared to the middle and upper tiers of players.

Two Olympic hopefuls who just couldn't make the cut for their respective countries are the top players on their lists. Jason Robertson is in his prime, and this will likely be the biggest contract he signs in his career, so he will likely have to milk this one for every penny he can, especially after having taken a reasonably team-friendly deal the last time. Meanwhile, Connor Bedard is working on his ascension to superstardom, and at only 20 years old it's highly unlikely that this will be the largest deal he signs, so he doesn't necessarily have to milk every dollar. That being said, this is a rising cap era, and with Bedard still growing as a player, if he signs at too low of a number he risks being underpaid as early as year one.

Alex Tuch is the top UFA on the board, and is going to get paid as a result, but the more fascinating story this summer is how the RFAs will reset their market, and how they will fall in line behind Bedard. If Bedard manages a $14 million cap hit, then how can you pay Leo Carlsson any less than $12 million, which would bring Cutter Gauthier, Adam Fantilli, and maybe Trevor Zegras up closer to the $10 million mark as well. If Bedard takes a four-year deal at $10 million per season, then it's really going to cap the other negotiations. If Bedard and/or Carlsson drag out late into the summer, then we might see a lot of RFAs follow suit. With the cap rising as it is though, teams have room to get these done now, so I would bet on them being signed earlier rather than later, and I would also be betting the over on most of these compared to the under.

Evgeni Malkin marks the first signee off this list after re-upping yesterday (May 26th) on a one-year deal for $5.5 million. That comes in extremely close to the projected $5.41 million listed below. It’s a tough look when you peak so early in these kinds of things, but we’ll take the win for now!

Anyone not on the list below is projected somewhere between the $2.0 million mark, and the league-minimum cap hit of $850K next season.

If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the projection system, please let me know. You can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.

Comments are always appreciated.

Rank	Name	Age	Pos	Free Agent Status	Projected Cap Hit
1	Jason Robertson	26	F	RFA	$13,250,000
2	Connor Bedard	20	F	RFA	$12,200,000
3	Alex Tuch	30	F	UFA	$11,060,000
4	Leo Carlsson	21	F	RFA	$10,210,000
5	Pavel Dorofeyev	25	F	RFA	$9,310,000
6	Adam Fantilli	21	F	RFA	$8,980,000
7	John Carlson	36	D	UFA	$7,830,000
8	Cutter Gauthier	22	F	RFA	$7,630,000
9	Connor McMichael	25	F	RFA	$7,590,000
10	Trevor Zegras	25	F	RFA	$7,330,000
11	Zach Benson	21	F	RFA	$7,060,000
12	Brandt Clarke	23	D	RFA	$7,010,000
13	Mavrik Bourque	24	F	RFA	$6,880,000
14	Alex Ovechkin	40	F	UFA	$6,700,000
15	Darren Raddysh	30	D	UFA	$6,660,000
16	Alexander Nikishin	24	D	RFA	$6,520,000
17	Bobby McMann	29	F	UFA	$6,190,000
18	Mason Marchment	31	F	UFA	$6,190,000
19	Barrett Hayton	25	F	RFA	$5,750,000
20	Jordan Spence	25	D	RFA	$5,640,000
21	Pavel Mintyukov	22	D	RFA	$5,640,000
22	Olen Zellweger	22	D	RFA	$5,640,000
23	Jamie Drysdale	24	D	RFA	$5,490,000
24	Stuart Skinner	27	G	UFA	$5,480,000
25	Evgeni Malkin	39	F	Signed 1-yr at $5.5 M	$5,410,000
26	Simon Edvinsson	23	D	RFA	$5,150,000
27	Anthony Mantha	31	F	UFA	$5,070,000
28	Eeli Tolvanen	27	F	UFA	$4,920,000
29	Cole Perfetti	24	F	RFA	$4,910,000
30	Rasmus Andersson	29	D	UFA	$4,790,000
31	Arseny Gritsyuk	25	F	RFA	$4,740,000
32	Mario Ferraro	27	D	UFA	$4,460,000
33	Jaden Schwartz	33	F	UFA	$4,400,000
34	Jacob Trouba	32	D	UFA	$4,380,000
35	Claude Giroux	38	F	UFA	$4,330,000
36	Connor Ingram	29	G	UFA	$4,290,000
37	Cole Sillinger	23	F	RFA	$4,160,000
38	Jet Greaves	25	G	RFA	$4,100,000
39	Vladimir Tarasenko	34	F	UFA	$3,960,000
40	Collin Graf	23	F	RFA	$3,620,000
41	Sergei Bobrovsky	37	G	UFA	$3,570,000
42	Oliver Bjorkstrand	31	F	UFA	$3,550,000
43	Arturs Silovs	25	G	RFA	$3,520,000
44	Marcus Johansson	35	F	UFA	$3,480,000
45	Cody Glass	27	F	UFA	$3,250,000
46	Kirby Dach	25	F	RFA	$3,180,000
47	~~Jack McBain~~	26	F	~~Signed in 2025, 5-yrs at $4.25~~ M	~~$3,120,000~~
48	Bobby Brink	24	F	RFA	$3,080,000
49	Jack Roslovic	29	F	UFA	$3,080,000
50	Daniil Tarasov	27	G	UFA	$3,030,000
51	Patrik Laine	28	F	UFA	$2,870,000
52	Boone Jenner	32	F	UFA	$2,840,000
53	Matias Maccelli	25	F	RFA	$2,630,000
54	Logan Stanley	28	D	UFA	$2,620,000
55	Egor Chinakhov	25	F	RFA	$2,610,000
56	Viktor Arvidsson	33	F	UFA	$2,590,000
57	Samuel Ersson	26	G	RFA	$2,570,000
58	Peyton Krebs	25	F	RFA	$2,550,000
59	Victor Olofsson	30	F	UFA	$2,520,000
60	Anders Lee	35	F	UFA	$2,520,000
61	Patrick Kane	37	F	UFA	$2,390,000
62	Michael DiPietro	26	G	RFA	$2,370,000
63	Frederik Andersen	36	G	UFA	$2,250,000
64	David Rittich	33	G	UFA	$2,110,000
65	Ryan Shea	29	D	UFA	$2,060,000

One Comment

David Hunchak 2026-05-27 at 15:08Log in to Reply

I love seeing this article every year, typically your predictions are pretty accurate. I would love for you to be right about everyone else not on the list being less than 2 million. At least I’m sure Edmonton would love to get Connor Murphy, Kasperi Kapanen and Jason Dickenson resigned all for under 2 million each.