Analytics Advantage: Stacking Up Carolina’s Stanley Cup in Historical Context, and Staal’s Hall of Fame Case

Stas Pupkov

2026-06-19

Last week, this column left the Final as a natural experiment: the Carolina Hurricanes' 14-scorer committee against the Vegas Golden Knights' two-man star vehicle, the goaltending dead even, and Game 6 set up as a referendum on which build wins.

Carolina closed it out in six and won the Stanley Cup with its backup.

Frederik Andersen was a wall for three rounds, posting a .931 save percentage. Then he cracked in the Final, fell to .815, and lost his crease. Brandon Bussi started Games 4, 5, and 6, won all three, and clinched on the road with a 3-0 shutout. If last week's lesson was that a series comes down to goaltending, and you can never guess whose, Carolina proved it.

It held the other way too. Over the full run, Carolina's top two scorers accounted for 28.8 percent of its goals. Vegas's top two carried 34.2 percent. The deeper team beat the top-heavy one, which is how it has usually gone for forty years. But the Hurricanes did not just win. They went 16-3, and the talk has already jumped from champion to all-time great. So I spent the week with every playoff box score the NHL API has since 1987, the first spring every round went best-of-seven, and ran Carolina against all 39 champions. Then I put the roster through a Hall of Fame model built on career production, peak rate, and awards. The two answers cut against each other. The team was less dominant than the record suggests, and the only lasting legacy of the spring belongs to a player nobody is talking about.

Second-Best Ever? Only if You Pick the Yardstick

Start with the stat that is true. Since 1987, only one team lost fewer games on the way to the Cup than Carolina's 16-3: the 1988 Edmonton Oilers, who went 16-2. By raw won-loss efficiency, the Hurricanes are genuinely second in 39 years. That part holds.

Then change the yardstick, and they slide down the board. By goal differential per game, the 16-3 Hurricanes rank seventh of 39 champions. Carolina outscored its opponents by 27 goals over 19 games, a tidy +1.42 per night, but still well shy of the 1988 Oilers at +1.72 or last year's Panthers at +1.65.

They won close and they won often. Two of their three losses came in the Final. The third was a lone 6-2 stumble in the conference-final opener.

Their edge was control. Carolina almost never lost the thread of a game, and in the most goaltending-dominated postseason on record, that is what the best team looks like. Shooters across the league finished 19.8 percent below their expected goals this spring, the widest gap in the tracking era. Nobody was scoring easily. Carolina just stopped giving anything back.

The draw was soft, too. Average the regular-season point percentage of the four teams a champion beats, and Carolina's 2026 opponents — Montreal (.646), Ottawa (.604), Philadelphia (.598), and Vegas (.579) — come out to .607, which ranks 20th of 38. Dead middle. The team they beat for the Cup was the weakest of the four.

And the best regular-season team in hockey never got near them. Colorado, a 121-point team with a +99 goal differential that dwarfed the league, lost in the Western Conference Final to Vegas. Carolina, a very good 113-point team, finished second in its own regular season and never had to share the ice with the one club built to test it.

None of this makes Carolina a fraud. They were excellent, and they beat everyone in front of them. But the teams we remember as all-time great went through a wall. Carolina mostly walked through an open door. The Cup does not make Hall of Famers. One trophy does. Run that roster through the Hall of Fame model and the Cup itself barely registers. Rings were never what the voters rewarded, so the 2026 title, on its own, moved no Hurricane's case. One player is the exception, and what moved him was the individual award that came with the ring.

Jordan Staal won the Conn Smythe; playoff MVP, at 37, and captain of the team he carried defensively all spring. Feed that one trophy into the model and his induction probability jumps from 0.52 to 0.84, from "Borderline" to "Likely," a two-band leap. Take the Conn Smythe back out and a third of his entire probability goes with it. Staal was the only Hurricane already standing at the threshold when it landed in his hands. Taylor Hall is the other side of it. A former Hart winner, finally a champion, Carolina's second-leading scorer this spring, and his number did not move a hair. He won no award, and to the model the ring is invisible. It will mean everything to him. It means nothing to his case.

Jordan Staal's 17 Years

Staal's story does not really need the model. He won his first Cup in 2009, a 20-year-old on a Pittsburgh Penguins team built around Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. He won his second in 2026, a 37-year-old captain in Carolina. Seventeen years between Cups is the second-longest gap of any player since 1987, behind only Mark Recchi's 20-year spread from 1991 to 2011.  Seventeen years is a whole career. It is the distance between a checking-line teenager and a captain holding the Conn Smythe. Staal spent most of it as the kind of player analytics loves and box scores undersell: a shutdown center who made the ice smaller for the other team.

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The model that barely knew what to do with him a year ago now files him beside Victor Hedman, Drew Doughty, and Corey Perry in the "Likely" tier. One trophy did that, landing on a résumé that had spent two decades waiting at the line.

The Verdict

Set the "best ever" talk aside, and a clearer team comes into focus: a low-loss, tight-winning, goaltending-era champion that drew a fair bracket and rarely wasted a shift. Efficient, controlled, opportunistic, and a clear level below the juggernauts it is being measured against. The team's place in history was never going to be the lasting story here, but Staal's is: 17 years, two Cups, a Conn Smythe at 37, and a Hall of Fame case that went from a coin flip to a likelihood in three weeks. The Hurricanes won a Cup. Staal won a legacy.

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