I'll quickly chime in my two-cents on the Leo Carlsson contract, and that's first off that I have been noting for a couple of years now that this big jump in contracts was coming, along with how valuable those long terms deals were going to be that were signed. Especially the eight year contracts signed in the last year or two.

When Leo Carlsson's $18M deal expires in 2031 and he's looking for a raise, the Carolina Hurricanes will still have Seth Jarvis, Jackson Blake, and Logan Stankoven under contract for a combined $18.5M. Carolina got ahead of these things, Anaheim didn't. Those of you planning ahead are going to be in an excellent spot in cap leagues moving forward. Those of you still waiting for RFAs to sign might be in tough to suddenly find some extra cap space.

Calsson's deal comes in at a little over 17% of next season's cap, while the cap percentage for some of the leagues stars in the last decade on longer term deals have peaked around 15%, including Connor McDavid's initial $12.5 Million deal, and Matthews' $13.25 Million cap hit. Both of those were very rosterable, but part of that is because owners knew they were getting a top-10 fantasy player. Carlsson is probably a top-25 or 30 option heading into the season, but top-10 production from him would likely be seen as a big win.

If you want to look for reasons Carlsson can be a top-10 player, you don't have to look very hard. He started off the year with 28 points in 21 games, finished the season at about a point-per-game, and is heading into year-four right at the 200-game mark. He spent all of last season carrying around Troy Terry with an injured hip, and a 34-year-old Chris Kreider. Carlsson's underlying numbers all seem relatively stable, though a touch low if anything – indicating he probably should have finished the year around an 85-point pace rather than 78. With the added golden-boy status that the new contract brings, regardless if it's in PHI or ANA, Carlsson should be viewed in drafts and offseason trades as at least an 85-point player entering next season, with a very realistic shot of finishing somewhere around 100 points.

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Claude Giroux re-signed in Ottawa yesterday, on a bonus-laden deal with a $2 Million cap hit for one year. The 38-year-old has paced for 50 points each of the last two seasons, and we can expect more of the same from him this year. He's still valuable in leagues where FOWs from the wings matter, but aside from that, he's a fringe fantasy name at this point in his career.

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My 24-Team Cap Dynasty League (the WHL) is drafting next week, so I figured I would do a mock draft for it, as I try to pencil out who will be left for me at pick #20. 

Pick 1 – Gavin McKenna (LW) – TOR

With the top pick, the GM has noted that he's likely to keep it and select McKenna. Tough to fault him with the safe selection, and one that likely helps his current two-year compete window where he stumbled last year with Connor McDavid and now has him for two more seasons on at a reasonable number. McKenna is the safest bet to produce at the NHL level this year. 

Pick 2 – Ivar Stenberg (LW) – SJS

The Macklin Celebrini owner isn't going to have to think about this pick too hard, selecting the other top player in the draft, and Celenrini's future running mate. 

Pick 3 – Viggo Bjorck (C) – WPG

The team in our league who is most in the middle of rebuilding is likely going to take the highest offensive upside player, and that is likely Bjorck at this point.  He dominated at WPG development camp, and could even be in the NHL as a second line center this season. 

Pick 4 – Caleb Malhotra (C) – VAN

Malhotra's story at the draft may have been more about the family reuinion, but he is still very deserving of a top-five selection. He may need a little bit more development time before being ready for the NHL after a successful season in Brantford, but the scoring upside is there along with the defensive awareness and maybe some potential for peripherals. Our WHL team selecting here is resetting a little, and received this pick for a couple of veterans including Artemi Panarin. Malhotra likely rounds out the top-four for most leagues though, as fantasy GMs are more wary of defencemen, and this is where the forward tier drops off. 

Pick 5 – Chase Reid (D) – SEA

I could see the team selecting here debating a few different options on D or a reach for a forward, but ultimately selecting the player who was viewed as the top Dman in the class, has one of the highest offensive upsides, and joins a club without much in the way of roadblocks to ice time or power play deployment sounds pretty straightforward. This team is also resetting a little, and has the cupboards stocked at forward, without a crown jewel on the minors blueline (due to trades) despite a few D selections in recent years. 

Pick 6 – Keaton Verhoeff (D) – SJS

I don't have a great sense of this GM's draft tendencies as they joined last summer without too many picks, but if this one isn't over-thought, then Verhoeff is likely the second Dman off the board due to his upside in San Jose. He may need to be brought along more purposefully, so the wait time could be a little longer to hit that upside. 

Pick 7 – Wyatt Cullen (LW) – NSH

I think that our GM here leads forward compared to the couple of higher-drafted defencemen available, which is more so an indication that this is a fantasy draft compared to anything else. Cullen has some high upside, and seems to be similar to Beckett Sennecke from last year in that he hit a huge growth spurt the last two years (five-foot-five to six-foot-one in two years) to build on top of a very skilled player. Obviously Sennecke's puck skills and height are above that of Cullen's but the parallels are there. 

Pick 8 – Daxon Rudolph (D) – BUF

Our GM who picks at #3 also owns the #8 pick, and he never does anything halfway. Rebuilding the blue line should be in order here after moving out some of his recently drafted rearguards for high upside forwards in deals over the last year. Rudolph could contest with Reid for the highest offensive upside in the draft, it just might take longer for him to get there with the road block named Rasmus Dahlin in front of him and some work to be done on his defensive awareness. 

Pick 9 – Carson Carels (D) – CGY

This GM has been a safe drafter in previous years, and I expect him to stick to that and select the top remaining player here in Carels, who still provides some excellent upside on top of his high floor. 

Pick 10 – Oscar Hemming (LW) – CBJ

Another GM who joined the league last year, and no big draft history to pull from, but overall his team has plenty of young Dmen and is lacking quite a bit at LW, which would make Hemming the natural pick. Hemming should also have a quicker transition to the NHL, coming as a bigger bodied player from the NCAA, and into a Columbus lineup that looks like it may continue to have a few holes in it over the coming seasons. 

Pick 11 – Alberts Smits (D) – NYR

This GM often follows the NHL draft to a tee, selecting the highest remaining player from the NHL draft board. It has worked out fairly well for him in the past, and based on my research, the NHL draft list is above average at predicting NHL success when compared with other public scout draft lists. 

Pick 12 – Tynan Lawrence (C) – STL

The same GM at number four has #12 here too thanks to a deal with yours truly (which was a three-team deal where I acquired Shayne Gostisbehere for my own first next year, and another second round pick, and #12 was the intermediate piece). He is a GM that really plays for elite pieces and upside, and the best piece under both of those columns is Tynan Lawrence. He might be farther down my draft list, but many in the public sphere see a lot of potential despite the slow transition to the NCAA. 

Pick 13 – Mathis Preston (C) – ANA

The team who took Reid at #5 is back on the clock here, and after one high-level Dman, I would expect a forward to follow. Mathis Preston feels like a fit, based on both upside, and this GM's ties to BC. Preston's upside might be as high or higher than the rest of the forwards available, but his floor might be a little lower after an injury-plagued season.

Pick 14 – Nikita Klepov (RW) – ANA

Klepov was one of the strongest scorers in the OHL, and this GM doesn't shy away from Russians as he already owns Alex Ovechkin, Matvei Michkov, and Ivan Demidov. Betting on Klepov's upside feels like a great fit at this spot. This also highlights how much fire power Anaheim is going to have up front very soon, as they are constantly drafting high upside players. 

Pick 15 – Adam Novotny (LW) – VAN 

This is again our BC GM from #5 and #13. There is now a wide range of players who could be selected here, so it's tricky to really pick at this stage. A lot of the upsides are similar, so I could see a team (especially this one who is constantly looking to compete) to look at Novotny's very limited competition in front of him, and think that there could be a more immediate path to impactful minutes with the Canucks, making him a worthwhile pick here, a little earlier than his 28th overall slot in the NHL draft.

Pick 16 – Ethan Belchetz (LW) – UTA

Opinions on Belchetz vary, and while most think he has a floor as an NHLer it seems like he could end up anywhere from a second-line player like Lawson Crouse, or a mildly productive fourth liner. His size does mean his floor is higher than some, but the upside isn't quite as high. The odds he hits heights similar or higher to many of the remaining players is much higher, which makes him a reasonable bet in this range.

Pick 17 – Alexander Command (C) – NJD

Command is another higher floor player, who might even be one of the best bets in this range to make his NHL debut as early as this year. He plays a responsible NHL-ready game, and the Devils need some help in their bottom six, especially at center.

Pick 18 – J.P. Hurlbert (RW) – DET

Another high-upside winger available in this range, Hurlbert thrived in the WHL where he could showcase his offence, and is off to Michigan in the NCAA this coming season who is loading up for another championship run. It's possible that if he thrives there too, that he could be one and done at the NCAA level and see a few NHL games at the end of the season for a Wings team that likely won't be playoff bound.

Pick 19 – Oliver Suvanto (C) – WSH

Washington has done very well at the draft table over the last few years, and the European players who come over as polished two-way players at the top of their draft class but without the same high scoring numbers as others in the draft class often get overlooked, but the offence was just suppressed because they were playing against men as 17-year-olds. This could be the case for Suvanto too, who lit up the U-18 circuit as a 16-year-old, but then saw his numbers stunted when he made the jump to Liiga. He is somehow both a safe pick and an upside swing at the same time.

Pick 20 – Elton Hermansson (RW) – LAK

With my first pick at #20, Hermansson would be my pick as he's currently the top remaining player on my updated list at #18. He's a skilled player with swagger who has already played against men, showing that his skills aren't just from being able to pull them off against less-experienced defencemen. There are a few players I like in this range though, so I wouldn't be against trading down a few spots, but the forwards will continue to go quickly here as there aren't many defensemen left worth selecting either.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.