Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

The offseason is when I tend the get the most mailbag questions. In order to answer them all, and to do so more quickly, I'll be running a mailbag as soon as I get enough questions. If you have questions about keepers, draft strategy or anything of interest, definitely send them my way via the instructions at the end of the column.

Question #1 (from Dave)

In a 13 team H2H dynasty keeper where I need to keep 2 defensemen (each team has 4 D starters). Mikhail Sergachev is a lock for me, but I'm torn for the second between Filip Hronek, Brandon Montour, and K'Andre Miller. Categories are goals (4 pts), A (2pts), special team points (+1), and hits/blocks (+0.25 pts). Hronek had the better season but I fear regression, plus Vancouver figures to still be very bad. Montour's goal scoring has lure, but I don't really trust Seattle's offense and I'm also concerned about Montour's tendency to get injured. I wasn't considering K'Andre until he showed well in the playoffs. Does Miller deserve the second spot for upside going forward, or is one of the other two the right choice?

I received this question before free agency began, and figured Carolina would be singing John Carlson after trading for his rights. But he signed instead with Tampa, meaning presumably Carolina will enter 2026-27 with the same top six defensemen. That is good news for Miller, and his owners.

For one, Miller, most definitely a larger framed player, improved last season just as he was hitting his 400-game breakout threshold, as he finished with 21 points in his last 39 regular season games. He showed flashes of offense in the playoffs, most notably two PPPts in 19 games, after tallying just three in his 72 regular season contests.

What was so key about last season though was his 57.0% offensive zone starting percentage, as he'd been trending down during his time with the Rangers, from 49.6%, to 47.4%, to 45.2%. This was a big change, and in a good way, especially since Carolina added Alexander Nikishin this past season and gave him very sheltered minutes, resulting in an OZ% of 64.1%, plus this is a team with among the most one-dimensional defensemen in the league in Shayne Gostisbehere, whose OZ% was 69.3%. Also, Miller's OZ% was that high despite his SH TOI per game being nearly double his PPTOI per game (1:59 vs. 0:54), so it is clear they want him on the ice when offense is supposed to be happening.

Miller's other metrics are also encouraging. His secondary assist rate of 55.2% is not high for a d-man, plus the team shot 8.5% at 5×5 while he was on the ice, and his IPPs were up, but not so much as to be unsustainable. Yet it's his PDO that is most glaring, as it was a paltry 953, which, to put in perspective, ranked him 196th among 199 defensemen who played 41+ games last season. Of course that has nowhere to go but up, and perhaps way up. Given all this, I see Miller as a point per every other game downside player, but more likely than not scoring at a 45+ point rate, and with a shot at 50+ point production if he's able to keep his OZ% as high as it was last season. But does that make him a better option than Hronek and Montour?

I did a deep dive on Hronek in April's Goldipucks column. In short, his flirtation with a 50-point scoring pace is unlikely to recur. For one, he set a career high in PPPts despite under 2:00 in PP time per game. Aside from that aberration, the reality is he was merely keeping the PP1 QB role warm for Zeev Buium, a centerpiece in the Quinn Hughes trade. Hronek also saw his scoring pace rise despite fewer SOG and a shrinking OZ%. Hronek had eight goals, giving him 18 in 224 games over the past three seasons, and a cumulative point total of 130. Not only do none of the 25 defensemen with more points over the past three seasons have fewer cumulative goals, but just three have fewer than 25. That is not what you want to see in a goal-weighted league. All that being said, Hronek is very solid in Hits/Blocks, averaging a combined three per game, versus a bit over two for Miller.

As for Montour, there has not been more of a steadier eddy than him over the past three seasons, as although he has missed a chunk of games in two of the campaigns, when the dust settled he was a point per every other game player in each. He is most definitely a goal scorer, in that whereas Hronek had a cumulative goal total that was the lowest among defensemen who scored as many or more points than him, Montour's goal total since 2021-22 ranks him ninth among all rearguards; and although there is one d-man (Jakob Chychrun) with more total goals despite fewer total points, each of the other seven had at least 60 more points than Montour. So yes, you're astute to notice his value in a goal-centric league like this. The concern though is his injury history, plus the fact he went from being a true PP1 QB in 2023-24, to splitting that duty with Vince Dunn in 2024-25, to Montour taking the ice for only 40.3% of Seattle's PP time last season. The good news though is that this did not affect Montour's OZ% or scoring rate, plus he has strong IPPs. Of the three, his Hits+Blocks are weakest, though not far below Miller's.

This is actually a close call. In Hronek and Montour you have proven point per every other game scoring, plus Hronek has the best Hits+Blocks while Montour is a goal scorer. Had this been a year ago, Miller would not have been in the conversation; but with his apparent new role in Carolina, he has to be. In keeping Sergachev, you're getting specialty team points as well as goals, but he's lacking in Hits+Blocks, so that might tilt the scales toward Hronek. Even if Hronek does revert to his usual point per every other game scoring, that, plus his banger stats, could give him the edge. Miller though could be on the verge of bigger and better things, but I worry about Carolina's continued need to shelter Ghost and Nikishin, plus about Montour's injuries and diminishing PP role. On the other hand, banger stats are easier to assemble in the aggregate than points, especially goals, so that could point toward one of the other two. Honestly, I think it's so close that you should keep the one of the three who'd be the most difficult to redraft, then, if desired, plan to grab one or both of the other two in the draft. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Kevin)

I'm in a very long-running 12 team keeper with one point categories of G,A,PTS,GAA,SV%,Wins, and half point categories of HIT and +/-. Each team can keep ten players, then we draft another ten, so 240 players are owned after the draft. My intended keeps as of now are Jack Hughes, Macklin Celebrini, Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson, Ivan Demidov, Dylan Guenther, Matvei Michkov, Lane Hutson, Cole Hutson and Igor Shesterkin. I finished 6th last year, and think I can rise to at least third this season. My concern is – shocker -Michkov, and I have an opportunity to acquire Adam Fantilli or Porter Martone in trade; but if I did so, that would mean not keeping Michkov. I also have the 2nd and 9th picks in the 1st round, with Gavin McKenna likely to be grabbed first, but giving me an opportunity for perhaps two of Ivar Stenberg, Tij Iginla, Michael Misa, James Hagens, Igor Chernyshov, and Roman Kantserov. Do I hold Michkov, or trade for Fantilli or Martone? If I make the trade, do I redraft Michkov with one of my two early picks, or are there two guys you think would be better?

First off, your team is stacked. You've done incredibly well amassing that core, and your focus should be on getting even better, if possible. You've focused on Michkov, but to me the player to consider as a redraft would be Cole Hutson. I realize his brother has been amazing and Cole looked quite good during his first taste of NHL action for the Caps. But Jakob Chychrun just had a career best season, is very highly paid, and represents an impediment that big bother Lane did not have in Montreal, where all he had to do was leapfrog Mike Matherson. Yes, Chychrun is not what would be considered a prototypical PP1 QB, as despite taking the ice for the 13th most PP minutes among all defensemen his 18 PPPts ranked him tied for 18th; however, he still had eight PPGs, which was tied for second among all defensemen. That likely keeps him on PP1, leaving Hutson on PP2, which is not ideal.

Not keeping Cole would leave you with one d-man keeper, versus two, making your keepers less balanced. On top of that, defence is most often a position of scarcity versus forward. There are also concerns regarding Michkov that did not exist a year ago. Yes, Michkov is the only winger – left or right – other than Alex Ovechkin since 1990-91 to have a rookie season at age 20 or younger with 25+ goals, 35+ assists, and 2.4+ SOG per game; but there 's the fact that Ovi's stats were far and away better, and Jeff Skinner only didn't qualify due to only 32 assists as a rookie, so Michkov could be more Skinner than Ovi, or somewhere in the vast gap that ended up existing in between them, or, of course, below them both, as past results and comparisons do not always dictate future outcomes.

Having assessed Cole and Michkov though, I'd put my eggs in Michkov's basket. If Rick Tocchet remains coach and the team does not change its philosophy (more on that in a bit), Michkov might be shipped elsewhere, since they do not mesh well and it's unlikely Michkov finds successs under Tocchet, which in a way would force Philly's hand, as if they don't trade Michkov his value falls further, lessening what could be obtained in return. But in late breaking news, Philly may be ready to have more of an offensive focus, since as I write this we're waiting to see if Anaheim matches their stratospheric offer sheet for Carlsson, who you also own. If Anaheim somehow does not match, it's a slam dunk to keep Michkov, as I'd have to think he'd be given ample opportunity to thrive alongside Carlsson and the team would be more skewed toward offense. But even if Anaheim does match the offer sheet for Carlsson, I still favor Michkov over Cole.

Given that, let's consider the trade. The way the question was written, it sounds like Fantilli or Martone could be obtained without having to trade one of the listed players, since you wrote it'd be possible, if the trade was made, to redraft Michkov. So seemingly the question becomes if it makes more sense to obtain one of Fantilli or Martone in trade and either redraft whoever you drop (i.e., Cole or Michkov) (option #1) or not redraft either of them (option #2), or not make the trade, retaining both Cole and Michkov and drafting two of the players you listed (option #3) . For what it's worth, despite how far his stock has dropped, I'd be surprised if Michkov was there at pick nine and for sure not if Carlsson goes to Philly, whereas Cole almost assuredly would be redraftable. And although I believe Michkov will be gone from Philly more sooner than later if Tocchet stays, unless Carlsson comes to the Flyers I'd be leery of Martone given that Tocchet did not deploy even his top forwards in ways conducive to them racking up points. Plus, although Martone played amazing in a small sample size, so too did Matty Beniers in about the same number of games, and look what's happened to him since then for a team which, like Philly, does not do its forwards favors in terms of deployment. Of course, if Carlsson comes, then Martone has added allure and is likely worth gambling on over Fantilli, who is trending in the right direction, and has realistic room to still get better, but I worry about all the players wanting out of Columbus. I like the idea of trading for Martone if Carlsson comes to Philly, or Fantilli otherwise, and not keeping Cole. I'd prefer two of those you listed for picks #2 and #9 rather than redrafting Cole. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Me)

Of the players who've changed teams this offseason so far, and had yet to achieve significant fantasy success, do you see any who are poised to make strides? And on the flip side, are there players we should resist the urge to overrate based on new surroundings?

Starting with the climbers, one is Ross Colton. Not even a full time NHLer until age 25, he's played for only two teams: Tampa Bay and Colorado. Sounds great right? Not really, as they had top tier talent in solidified roles, making it so Colton had the all too familiar issue for unproven players in that he was not given heaps of ice time or favorable deployment, and, as a result, didn't produce well enough to force the team to give him more ice time. Still, in his first NHL season he had 22 goals despite taking the ice for under 13:00 per game. Since then it's been low ice times and PP scraps. Still, he kept his SOG rate right around two per game, and last season if he'd shot at his career rate of 12.7%, he'd have had ten more goals, and, with that, 34 points (19 being goals) in 73 games instead of only 24 points, and that despite his lowest ever PP TOI per game at just 12:31 per contest. What I also really like about Colton is three times he's had an IPP of 71.4% or higher, plus never had a secondary assist rate of 40%, suggesting he finds a way to factor into scoring and has room for more realistic points to come. All these things having been said, Colton is not likely to be immediately placed on PP1 or the first line; and if he stays at LW he has Filip Forsberg in his way, but possibly also Steven Stamkos, although Stamkos could slot at another position, for example centering the second line, opening up a LW spot in the top six for Colton. Even if relegated to the third line, Colton should see more TOI, plus a spot on PP2. I see him as having a realistic chance to capitalize on that.

Interestingly, another player I think has vastly increased potential is Mavrik Bourque, who also is now with the Predators. The presence of Bourque should not affect Colton much if at all, and vice versa, since Bourque mostly is a RW while Colton plays on the left side. On the surface, Bourque looks to have made only modest improvement in 2025-26, finishing with a point per every other game. However, 27 of those points came in his last 40 games, where he also saw his TOI rise from 14:09 and 14:00 in Q1 and Q2 to 16:05 in Q3 and 17:49 in Q4. Moreover, he was being entrusted to play alongside the likes of Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston at ES, looking not at all out of place. Let's remember also that Bourque was a better than point per game player in his last season in the AHL, and a former first rounder, so the pedigree for success is there. What I also really like is his IPP was 63.1% last season despite playing with points magnets like JRob and Wyatt. His secondary assist rate was a low 38.1%. He was unable to make inroads to PP1 for Dallas, and might not for Nashville either. A spot in the top six seems quite likely, with him being able to translate it to 50-55+ point production, with a chance at 60+ if he is a top line regular.

Another player who sticks out in a good way is Nick Robertson. Although he's appeared in six NHL seasons, his cumulative games played total sits at just 234, or well lower than the 400 games it may take for a shorter stature player like him to thrive. Although his 32 points in 76 games last season looks unremarkable, that was despite him only taking the ice for 12:40 per game and 27.1% of Toronto's PP minutes. Yet despite this, and a 45.0% OZ% (down from 59.2% in 2024-25 and 59.7% in 2023-24), he not only had an overall IPP of 71.1% but a team SH% at 5×5 of 10.2%, with an entirely reasonable 44.2% secondary assist rate. In short, although he took the ice infrequently, and faced the headwind of a low OZ%, he managed to create offense and factor prominently in scoring. There just so happens to be a vacancy for the Pens at RW with the departure of Anthony Mantha, who had 64 points last season despite only playing 15:11 per game. I think Robertson is primed to make a major mark in 2025-26.

Lastly, for a longshot there's Michael Kesselring. San Jose may have a boatload committed to Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba, but can either of them run a PP1? Not Touba, and Nurse only once took the ice for over 40% of Edmonton's PP minutes, tallying only nine PPPts. Kesselring has never run a PP, and his 2025-26 was dismal; however, in 2024-25 he had 29 points, three of which came on the PP despite not even taking the ice for 20% of his team's PP minutes. Of course, it's not just Nurse and Trouba in the PP picture, but youngsters Sam Dickinson and Luka Cagnoni, plus the possibility of the Sharks opting for 5Fs on PP1. Still, if Kesselring could amass 29 points for Utah, then point per every other game scoring or even better could be a reality for him on the Sharks. It's a longshot, but maybe worth a late pick.

As for players you should resist overrating, two stick out, starting with Andrei Kuzmenko. He's the latest in a long line of wings who were brought to Pittsburgh with the thinking that pairing them with Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin will revitalize their careers. But Kuzmenko has gotten worse with each passing season, and worn out his welcome on five teams in four seasons. At this point, he is a PP specialist, pure and simple – think Stefan Noesen in New Jersey or former Pen Michael Bunting. He might get 40 points, with half coming on the PP, but do not think he's in line for more than that, as it is unrealistic.

I'd also resist the urge to grab Ryan Shea thinking he can build off his 2025-26 season with the Pens now that he's on the Oilers. Yes, he figures to be a top-four defenseman, likely to see 20:00+ of TOI per game; but the Pens shot a stratospheric 13.0% at ES when he was on the ice last season, and he had a PDO of 1039. Shea's IPP was only 39.3%, or right at the 40% expected of a "normal" defenseman. I fear that between his rise in points and move to the Oilers some will see him as having the potential for 40-45+ points. Resist that urge, as this is a player who had under 100 games of NHL experience going into last season despite being 28 years old, which says a lot.

Speaking of players likely to be hyped due to landing on a high-profile team, let's talk Nick Paul. Yes, the Leafs paid a decent price to get Paul; however, he's 31 years old and failed to score at more than a 45-point pace for Tampa, including a season when he took the ice for 64.8% of the team's PP time. He is a big body, but doesn't really throw his weight around, plus does not shoot the puck. My guess is he will get a trial in the top six; but if Mattias Macceli, who also didn't shoot but for sure had more offensive talent than Paul, could not find the level of success on the Leafs that he had in Arizona, then don't look for Paul to suddenly connect the dots, especially given his age and scoring track record.

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To get mailbag questions to me either (1) email them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) send them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.