The New Jersey Devils finished second last in the Metropolitan Division in 2025-26, accumulating a paltry 87 points. Their minus-24 goal differential was third worst in the Eastern Conference. This young and talented team was expected to take the next step as a consistent playoff threat. One significant factor that negatively affected the Devils was puck luck. New Jersey had the lowest PDO in the league (971) at 5v5. PDO is a combination of save percentage and shooting percentage, both of which together should add up to 1000 if no luck is involved. The higher it is the more excessive your good fortune, and likewise, the lower the PDO the worse your luck. Team quality can impact PDO, but it provides a guideline for how lucky/unlucky a team or player has been. If we break it down further, we can see that it was the drop in shooting percentage that fueled this low overall PDO: At 5v5, the Devils had the ninth lowest team save percentage (0.898%), but by far the lowest shooting percentage (7.22%). This extended to the high danger areas as well where their team shooting percentage (13.55%) was also dead last in the NHL.

Let's put into perspective just how unlucky the Devils were at 5v5. Their goals-for above expected (-33.56) was far and away the worst in the league. In second last were the New York Islanders at -20.7. 

Many of the star players were affected by a low 5v5 shooting percentage: Nico Hischier (6.13%), Timo Meier (6.57%), Dougie Hamilton (6.88%), and Jesper Bratt (7.53%).

Nico Hischier for example was above 0.90 points per game for three consecutive seasons (0.99, 0.94, and 0.92) before dropping off to 0.80 last year, despite receiving a career high 73.2% of power play time. His 965 PDO was slightly lower than the team PDO (971). His numbers did improve after the Olympics as he put up 24 points in 24 games to end the season strong. If your league counts face-off wins, then you know the extra value Hischier brings. His 713 faceoffs win led the entire league. He was also tenth in the league in high danger shots on goal with 103 (NHL EDGE stats).

Hischier was also impressive in another subtle category: He had the third most rebounds created (44) in the NHL, a statistic in which he was tied with a teammate of his: Timo Meier. Other than neutrality, it seems like the Swiss have a new skill to add to their reputation.

That brings us to the highest AAV forward ($8.8 million) on the Devils, Timo Meier, who is a shot machine. He was third in the league in shots attempts per 60 minutes (22.98) and was second to Dylan Guenther (165) in shots that missed the net (161). Once a point-per-game player, Meier's points per game numbers have gradually declined from 0.99 to 0.85 to 0.75 to 0.66 to 0.57. With the Devils he has a hard time cracking the top power play, where Connor Brown or Stefan Noesen often occupied that last spot after Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and a defenseman (often Luke Hughes or Dougie Hamilton). This year, you can add Anthony Mantha to the list of competitors for that last top unit power play spot.

Meier struggled on the power play as well, with a deflated 9.68% shooting percentage at 5v4. In comparison, consider that some players on the Montreal Canadiens, the Dallas Stars, and the Edmonton Oilers were shooting 20%+ on the power play. Meier is still valuable in other categories, posting 1.70 hits per game, and the aforementioned shots at 3.49 per game (second in the NHL). He is a good candidate to rebound as he had the fourth lowest goals scored above expected (-10.3) league wide.

Jesper Bratt, who got married in Italy this past weekend, suffered from an even lower 5v5 PDO (951). His 71 points in 82 games were below expectations, but his pre-Olympic and post-Olympic numbers are quite interesting: Before the Olympic break, Bratt had 42 points in 58 games (0.72 ppg), but after the Olympic break, Bratt had 29 points in 24 games (1.21 ppg).

Before this overall dip in points in 2025-26, Bratt had 244 points in 245 games spanning the three seasons between 2022 and 2025. He has enough of a stable track record that we can chalk up the first 58 games of 2025-26 as an analytics aberration.

Staying on the theme of New Jersey, former Devils draft pick Akira Schmid (136 overall in 2018) avoided arbitration and inked a two-year deal with the Florida Panthers at an AAV of $2 million. GM Bill Zito had this to say: “We are excited to sign Akira for the next two seasons in South Florida. He has the size, athleticism and competitive drive that fits the identity of the Florida Panthers, and we’re looking forward to watching him succeed with our group."

After acquiring Jacob Markstrom from New Jersey earlier this summer, the Panthers are now set in net for the next two years. Markström is signed at a $6 million AAV for this year and next. That contract was signed in 2020 with former Flames GM Brad Treliving.

Markström’s GAA (3.07), save percentage (0.883%), and quality start percentage (38.6%), were all 11 year personal lows for him. He moves to a potential powerhouse in the Panthers for the upcoming campaign. Markström and Schmid were briefly Devils’ teammates for ten days in late June 2024. Markström was acquired from the Flames on June 19, and Schmid was traded to the Golden Knights on June 29 of that year.

Due to injuries and poor play from Adin Hill and Carter Hart, Schmid got plenty of playing time despite being the third stringer for Vegas. Schmid had more starts (29), more wins (16), better GAA (2.59), better save percentage (0.893%), and a better Goals Saved Above Expected (minus 1.0) than both Hart and Hill (and Carl Lindbom who played in eight games) last year. In case Markström performs poorly it is interesting to note that his 20 team no trade list this year, drops to a five team no trade list in the final year of his contract. In this scenario, Schmid would be a solid sleeper candidate. The Swiss native has played over 4255 minutes across five NHL seasons, posting a 32-28-10 record with a 0.898% and a 2.66 GAA.

The Panthers were spending $10 million on Sergei Bobrovsky alone. Now, their tandem costs a combined $8 million. The trade cost for the new crease duo in Florida was a 3^rd round pick in 2028, Evan Rodrigues, Jesper Boqvist, and Ben Steeves. Steeves and Rodrigues both went undrafted. Jesper Boqvist? Drafted 36^th overall in 2017 by…..yup you guessed it: the New Jersey Devils.

Player usage data from Frozen Tools. Salary information from capwages.com. Advanced stats from MoneyPuck.

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