Hello and Happy Bubble Keeper Week to all those who celebrate! Some of the names we’ll cover here have already appeared in other Dobber articles this week, and for good reason. For Capped, I’m approaching these decisions through the lens of both salary cap management and overall fantasy production.

I’ll also mention that I’m in three fantasy leagues, which are probably three too many, with two of them being keeper leagues. In one of those leagues, we use the actual NHL salary cap and current player salaries. It’s a really fun format that adds another layer of strategy to fantasy hockey.

Anthony Cirelli (29, C)

$6.25M AAV | $50M Total Value | Year Four of Eight | UFA 2031 (Age 33)

I know which way I would lean when it comes to Cirelli as a keeper, but I do think he’s worth discussing internally and perhaps even testing the trade market to see what kind of interest exists.

While I don’t currently roster Cirelli in either of my keeper leagues, I played enough of him in DFS last season to know his production has been somewhat inconsistent over the past few years. His ice time has fallen from roughly 18:45 per game to around 17:20, though his shooting percentage has remained elevated.

The reason I lean toward keeping him is simple. Those of you who have been reading my work for a long time know that I prioritize center production, and a centerman skating between Mr. Hart Trophy himself, Nikita Kucherov, and Brandon Hagel is in a position to provide meaningful offensive value.

That said, the equation changes if you’re already loaded at center. If your roster is strong down the middle, chances are you’re already carrying two or three expensive center contracts. In that scenario, Cirelli may become the odd man out, forcing you to either trade him or leave him unprotected if your league uses a player draft. Overall, I lean to keep, but only if I have room to allocate salary at the center position.

Victor Hedman (35, D)

$8M AAV | $32M Total Value | Year Two of Four | UFA 2029 (Age 38)

I’ve already been offered seven trade packages involving Hedman. Okay, so maybe not seven, but it’s at least around five at this point. Hedman is a fascinating keeper case because, well, he’s Victor Hedman. However, the player we watched last season, both on the ice and in that insurance commercial with Steven Stamkos, isn’t quite the same version we’ve grown accustomed to over the years.

Hedman missed not only the end of the regular season but all of Tampa Bay’s playoff games, finishing with just 33 games played and a career-low 17 points. Even when healthy, his role wasn’t quite what it used to be. His average ice time dropped from roughly 23 minutes per game to around 19, and he no longer maintained his full power-play quarterback responsibilities.

Despite that, I didn’t accept any of the trade offers involving Hedman. If I were rostering him, I think he still makes sense as a keeper, at least for this season. Here’s why: if he’s healthy, I still believe he can be a productive fantasy contributor. While he may not see extensive top power-play usage with John Carlson now in Tampa Bay, he’s still playing on a very strong Tampa squad and should remain valuable at even strength.

For me, the decision is straightforward. Keep him this season and evaluate afterward. If the production doesn’t rebound, moving on next year becomes an easy choice. If it does, then we can revisit the conversation next offseason.

Elias Pettersson (27, C/LW)

$11.6M AAV | $92.8M Total Value | Year Three of Eight | UFA 2032 (Age 33)

If you’re in a league that redrafts every season, then sure, taking a late-round flyer on Elias Pettersson is something I can get behind. The problem arises when we’re talking about Pettersson as a keeper. If I were forced to make that decision today, I’d be one foot out the door already.

Looking three or four years down the road in a dynasty salary-cap league is never easy. League landscapes change but projecting the players already on your roster is often more manageable. If I’m rostering Pettersson, I can envision a scenario where, by 2030, his career profile more closely resembles Jonathan Huberdeau‘s than the elite player we’ve occasionally seen flashes of.

What do I mean by that? Perhaps one 100-point season, a couple of campaigns in the high-80s range, and then a collection of 55-to-60-point seasons. That’s not bad production by any means, but it’s difficult to justify at an $11.6 million cap hit, particularly on a Vancouver roster that still lacks high-end winger depth. Now, if your roster can comfortably absorb an $11 million cap hit and benefit from Pettersson’s dual center and left-wing eligibility, keeping him becomes a more reasonable decision. Still, when I project future roster construction under a rising salary cap environment, I come back to the same conclusion.

That $11.6 million commitment could ultimately be the difference between rostering Elias Pettersson and rostering two quality players in the $5 million AAV range. For that reason, I’d strongly consider moving on.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

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