The Los Angeles Kings announced that winger Kevin Fiala underwent another surgery related to the initial surgery for the broken femur he suffered back in February at the Olympics. He is going to start the beginning of training camp, but there is no word on the recent procedure or when he'll return.

For fantasy purposes, Fiala was already fighting an uphill battle. The Kings traded for Artemi Panarin last season, added Mats Zuccarello in the offseason, and Adrian Kempe is still a top-ling winger. Los Angeles's season starts in 19 days. Fiala is returning from a very serious injury and has presumably had some sort of setback. We don't know when he'll be back, and even when he does return, he may not have a big offensive role. At this point, it's hard to draft him as a top-200 player. Knowing what we know now would you rather have Fiala, or someone with a Fantrax ADP around 200 like Artturi Lehkonen or Logan Stankoven?

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Over my last several Ramblings, we have been going over my personal fantasy hockey projections to find good draft values. We started by looking towards shallower formats, focusing on forwards whose projected value outstrips their Fantrax ADP before moving onto defencemen. We then looked at forwards providing good draft value in deeper formats before evaluating defencemen in the same kinds of leagues.

Today, we're going to be agnostic about position and look at this year's crop of rookies. There is a slew of very intriguing names that will be drafted in every kind of fantasy format, so we need to see just how realistic their ADPs are.

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Be sure to grab a copy of Dobber's 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide, which is available now in the Dobber Shop! It has team-by-team outlooks, a customizable draft list including projections, a breakdown of the new schedule, players to target for peripheral stats, sleeper picks in each conference, and a whole lot more. It is also updated until the start of the regular season to reflect new signings, trades, injuries, or anything else. Support what we do year-round and get a headstart on your league mates by ordering the 2026-27 Fantasy Guide in the Dobber Shop!

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As a reminder, my projections assume 84 games played for all players, and their fantasy value is relative to a replacement-level player at their position. For the projections, replacement level means the 132^nd-ranked forward and the 60^th defenceman last season, or the top of the waiver pile in 12-team leagues.

In the following graphs, the red vertical line represents the cutoff for a player's rank at their position in my projections compared to their Fantrax rank, and the red horizontal line is the cutoff for replacement level value above/below a player at their position. The fantasy categories are goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, and power-play points, and data for my projections are from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, All Three Zones, and Frozen Tools.

Below each name are 'My Rank' and 'Fantrax Rank'. My Rank means where I have that player ranked at their position, and Fantrax Rank is where they land at their position on Fantrax.

Before digging into the players, a quick note on rookies.

It is very hard for a first-year player to have a lot of fantasy value. In this format, Macklin Celebrini – who looks every bit the part of a generational player – was a fringe top 60 forward in his rookie season. He only played 70 games, but even if he played 80, he would have finished as a top 25 forward (and if everyone ahead of him plays 80 games, he drops further). Lane Hutson's rookie season saw him finish as the 12^th overall defenceman, and he was about 15% worse than the 8^th overall defenceman. Those two have quickly ended up among the best at their position regardless of age, and neither was an elite fantasy producer as a rookie. If a rookie can finish as a top 50 forward or top 20 defenceman, that is a very impressive rookie campaign. Keep that in mind when considering just how good a first-year player can be.

Anton Frondell (Chicago Blackhawks – F)

My Rank: 42

Fantrax Rank: 115

There are two rookies I think are very much worth drafting this season when considering their ADPs, and Frondell is the first. He was excellent in his brief stint at the end of the 2025-26 campaign and looks like a future superstar in the league. Not only does he present a tremendous draft value, but he also brings a high rate of fantasy production overall:

The curious part of my projections is that they aren't overly high on his point production with 22 goals and 35 assists. However, he is projected for 220 shots, 67 blocks, and 20 power-play points. All that additional production outside of just goals and assists is where his rating comes from. In fact, his value from shots, blocks, and power-play points comprise about 87% of his fantasy value overall. That should give fantasy managers an idea of what he can do if his point production exceeds my expectations. (For posterity, the Dobber Fantasy Guide is much higher on Frondell's production with 65 points in 82 games. That is an 84-game pace 10 points higher than my projection.)

Power-play production is key here, but with Connor Bedard missing the first month of the season (give or take), Frondell has a chance to lock down a top PP spot early and hang onto it. Even if his fantasy value is half of what I project, he still lands as a top 90 forward, and a good draft value. This is definitely one of the rookies to target. 

Porter Martone (Philadelphia Flyers – F)

My Rank: 75

Fantrax Rank: 51

There are two things true about Martone: Given what we saw at the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, he looks like a future multi-category monster. The other is that he's probably being overvalued right now, which is what puts him on the outside of my list of draft-able rookies:

Martone is expected to provide a lot of hits, which is great. However, hit rates are one of the peripheral areas that have been rising among forwards over the last couple of seasons, so providing triple-digit hits doesn't have the impact it would have had 3-4 years ago. That he had just six blocks in 19 NHL games is not good for his fantasy outlook because blocks are a peripheral that have been declining across the league. Being able to provide even a half-block per game is a solid rate, but a block every three games (or worse) is not. Martone's negative value in blocks is about double his positive value from hits, which hurts.

That also provides an avenue to fantasy success. If Martone can put up even 50 blocks, he becomes a good draft value. It isn't that he can't pay off his ADP, it's just that there is one area where he is expected to lag greatly and if that doesn't improve, he's probably overvalued.

On the flipside, if a fantasy manager locks down the block column early, Martone's negative value in that area doesn't mean nearly as much, and then he probably becomes a fine draft pick at his ADP.  

Gavin McKenna (Toronto Maple Leafs – F)

My Rank: 105

Fantrax Rank: 80

McKenna is expected to be productive – my projections have him pushing for 25 goals and 60 points – but there isn't much here for hits and blocks. If he could just break even in those two peripherals, he'd climb to a rank of a top 80 forward, and right in line with his Fantrax ADP. But he's not projected to break even in either, and it gives him a negative draft value:

Here is the issue with being such a drag in hits and blocks. I have McKenna projected for a little under 25 goals and 35 assists. If he produces 30 goals and 40 assists, which is more productive than any rookie in the last five years, he winds up as the 80^th forward on my board, or right in line with his Fantrax Rank. The question is: Can McKenna produce goals and assists at a rate higher than Celebrini's rookie year? If yes, then he's draft-able. If no, then he's not. Answer that question for yourself, but for me, I would rather draft more proven young wingers like Beckett Sennecke or William Eklund.

Ivar Stenberg (San Jose Sharks – F)

My Rank: 140

Fantrax Rank: 110

Stenberg's projection makes me nervous. He comes out with 19 goals and 35 assists, which again, would be an excellent rookie year. However, it's not enough to make him a positive draft value. With that said, what if he skates next to Celebrini at 5-on-5 and on the power play all year? My projections assume he spends about 25% of his 5-on-5 time next to Celebrini, but what if that's 40%? Or 60%? We have seen Celebrini elevate guys like Will Smith and William Eklund. He can very well do the same for Stenberg.

However, that isn't what my projections tell me; they tell me Stenberg is overvalued:

Personally, I am extremely high on Stenberg's future. Anything can happen, but I would be surprised if he's not a genuine superstar five years hence. And we do have to keep in mind he's an older rookie, turning 19 years old before the end of September. If his goal total lands in the low 20s, and his power-play points in the mid-teens, his rank in my projections falls right in line with his ADP. It isn't hard to imagine Stenberg out-performing his ADP, but even if he does, I don't think he becomes a league-winning draft pick.

Cole Hutson (Washington Capitals – D)

My Rank: 19

Fantrax Rank: 30

The second rookie that I have interest in drafting is the younger Hutson brother. He looked great at the end of the 2025-26 season with 10 points in 14 games, and if we add that to his pedigree and opportunity, he comes out with a lot of positive draft value:

The key to all of this is the power play. After arriving in Washington, he and Jakob Chychrun basically split the power play time. However, the Capitals' power play hasn't been great with Chychrun running things, and the assumption is that Hutson will eventually be the locked top PP option, even if it takes a couple months. That is pushing his projection past 20 power-play points, which is a big source of his fantasy value. If things go wrong and Chychrun is the locked top PP guy, that equation changes dramatically.

Overall, though, the question is whether Hutson can outperform his ADP, and I believe he can. It is a risk, because even if you draft him around the 25^th blue liner, you may be foregoing proven options like Mikhail Sergachev and Shayne Gostisbehere. However, that Hutson is providing such good draft value means he's a player I want as my third defenceman in 12-team leagues, and it makes him worth the risk. Maybe things go wrong and he doesn't live up to his ADP. Then again, what if he's the second coming of his older brother?

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One final note here: If I had to bet on a rookie I haven't listed to provide good draft value, it's Roman Kantserov. A lot comes down to whether he can earn a meaningful power-play role, and I'm skeptical he will once Bedard returns. However, if all goes right, he could very well skate a top 6 and top PP role for most of the season, and that's valuable. I would way rather draft Frondell, but Kantserov is not a bad consolation prize as a bench option in 12-team leagues.