Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

Last week, we went 4-5 for -4 units. The big hit was the six units we had on St. Louis' top line, which let us down. We were one game early on them! That brings the season record to 10-6 for +3.71 units, with an average bet return of 13.14%.

Let's dive into tonight's picks:

Alex DeBrincat Anytime Goal (+155, 1u)

DeBrincat is shooting like crazy lately, and it's paying off. He has four goals and eight points to start the season, fresh off a two-goal, three-point performance, and all four of his goals have come at home. He also just signed a seven-year, $91 million extension with Detroit on Tuesday, so expect him to be flying in his first game since putting pen to paper.

The matchup is even better. DeBrincat scored in every game against Philadelphia last season, including four goals across the final three meetings. The Flyers are 0-5-3 and have conceded 30 goals during their eight-game losing streak. They're also fourth worst in the league in xGA per 60 this season, and they're missing Travis Konecny and Rasmus Ristolainen, with Cam York day-to-day.

The market is still pricing Philadelphia like the strong defensive team they were last season, and that simply isn't who they are right now. At +155, the book is giving DeBrincat about a 39% chance to score. I have him closer to 46%, so we're getting real value here. Take advantage of this price. It's playable up to +135, which still implies under 43%.

Parlay (+138, 1.2u):

Winnipeg Jets More Shots Than Chicago (-143 alone)

Detroit Red Wings More Shots Than Philadelphia (-250 alone)

I'm usually not a big parlay guy, but when two legs are this lopsided on paper, combining them gets us a plus-money price on two outcomes I expect to hit.

Detroit is averaging 31.8 shots per game, third most in the league, while Philadelphia sits dead last at just 20.8 shots for and dead last again at 34.6 shots against per game. The Flyers have been outshot in seven of their eight games this season.

On the other side, Chicago is generating just 20.9 shots per game, 31st in the league, while allowing 29.9, 28th in the league. Yes, Bedard is back, but that didn't make a difference last game against the Penguins. Winnipeg is averaging 26 shots per game, and the Blackhawks' opponents have outshot them in six of their seven games this season.

Luke Hughes 2+ Shots (-195, 1.5u), 3+ Shots (+145, 0.5u), 4+ Shots (+350, 0.1u)

Hughes is shooting much more this season. He has 17 shots on goal through six games, roughly 2.8 per game, up from about 2.2 per game last season. He's also averaging over seven shot attempts per game while logging close to 24 minutes a night.

The Rangers are a team that gives up more shots to defensemen relative to forwards, which sets up perfectly for a high-volume, puck-moving defenseman like Hughes. He had 3, 4, and 3 shots on goal in three games against New York last season, clearing 2+ every time and 3+ in all three.

The 2+ line is the core bet. At -195, the book has Hughes at about 66% to get there, but with his volume this season and his history against New York, I have him closer to 80%. The ladder gives us upside if his volume carries over into this rivalry matchup.

SGP: Jack Hughes & Jesper Bratt 1+ Point Each (-105, 0.03u)

Hughes and Bratt are some of the most correlated players in the league when it comes to point production. They've been in on the same goal 7 times this season. That's all of Bratt's 7 points, and 7 of Hughes' 8 points. Tuesday's game was a perfect example. Hughes had a hand in Bratt's second-period goal, and Bratt returned the favor in overtime by springing Hughes for the game-winning breakaway.

Both are rolling. Hughes leads the Devils with eight points in six games and has points in four straight. Bratt has seven points, including four on the power play. Hughes has also owned the Rangers throughout his career, with 35 points in 26 games against New York.

At -105, this SGP implies about a 51% chance of both players hitting. Given how often these two have been in on the same goal, if Bratt gets a point, Hughes is almost certainly in on it. That means this SGP is priced close to Bratt's own odds of getting a point, and I have that closer to [X]%.

I can't get any more units down on this one since I'm limited on all the books that offer decent SGP point props, but at -105, this one is a layup I wanted to share. If you're only able to find this at -130 or worse, it is probably worth just taking Bratt's single point prop.

Olen Zellweger 2+ Shots (-130, 1.2u), 3+ Shots (+245, 0.16u)

Zellweger's role has exploded with Rasmus Dahlin sidelined. Against Montreal on Tuesday, he played nearly 26 minutes and put four shots on goal, scoring twice for the first multi-goal game of his NHL career.

Dahlin is listed as doubtful for tonight's game in Toronto, so Zellweger should see similar minutes again. Owen Power has taken over Dahlin's spot on the top power play, but Zellweger gets a decent share of power-play time on the second unit as well. With that kind of ice time and the green light to activate, two shots is a very reachable number, and the 3+ tier gives us some upside if he gets anywhere close to Tuesday's volume.

Vince Dunn 2+ Shots (-110, 0.09u), 3+ Shots (+250, 0.18u)

Tampa Bay tends to give up more shots to defensemen relative to forwards, and Dunn is coming off his most active game of the season. He put four shots on goal on nine attempts against Philadelphia on Tuesday while logging over 26 minutes.

Dunn averaged over two shots per game last season, but his volume has been inconsistent to start this year, so I'm keeping this one small. If the heavy usage from Tuesday sticks, the 3+ tier at +250 offers the most value. That price implies only about a 29% chance, so that's where I'm putting the larger share.

Vasily Podkolzin 1+ Point (-120, 1.4u), 2+ Points (+400, 0.2u)

Podkolzin is still riding with McDavid and Draisaitl at even strength and on the power play, and the results speak for themselves. He has points in every game so far this season, a career-best six-game streak, with seven goals and nine points. His four power-play points are already a career high for a single season. As a line, McDavid, Draisaitl, and Podkolzin have combined for 37 points through six games.

Zach Hyman could be back soon, but that doesn't change the fact that Podkolzin is still in the top six with one of the superstars and still on that lethal top power play. This price is treating him like a middle-six prospect rather than McDavid and Draisaitl's chemistry buddy. At -120, the book is giving him about a 55% chance to record a point. With his hot start, that's a bargain. The 2+ points tier at +400 is worth a sprinkle given how often this line has been stacking points.

Florida Panthers Over 0.5 Power-Play Goals (-145, 1.4u)

This is a mismatch on special teams. Vancouver has the worst penalty kill in the league at 57.1%, allowing 12 power-play goals through just eight games. Tuesday was the first game all season that the Canucks didn't allow a power-play goal.

Florida's season power-play numbers look average at 7-for-38, but the unit has woken up in a big way, going 6-for-10 over its last two games. With both Tkachuks, Reinhart, and Verhaeghe on the top unit going up against the league's worst kill, I expect the Panthers to cash in at least once. At -145, the book has this at about 59%. With Vancouver allowing a power-play goal in seven of eight games, I have it higher than that.

Florida Panthers & Vancouver Canucks Combined Over 1.5 Power-Play Goals (+132, 0.8u)

We're attacking this one from both sides. Florida leads the league in penalty minutes with 99, which gives a Vancouver power play converting at 20% plenty of opportunities. The Panthers' penalty kill hasn't been a strength either, sitting 23rd in the league at 75.9%.

Combine that with Vancouver's league-worst kill and Florida's red-hot power play, and this game has all the ingredients for multiple power-play goals. At plus money, this is a nice complement to the Florida over.

Good luck if you're tailing! Results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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