Looking ahead with Crazynuck – Week 1
Dobber Sports
2009-09-25
Same as what was posted here last week – but the chart has been fixed to better reflect what Tom Reeve was doing a year ago. If you are in a rotisserie league with weekly changes, this tool is priceless.
The number next to the team indicates the ‘multiplier’ to use on a player’s point-per-game pace to give you an idea how many points to expect for that week. Example:
For the week starting on October 1st the Vancouver Canucks have a rating of 4.10. That means that if you think Ryan Kesler is a 0.70 point-per-game player then you should expect about 2.87 points from him (4.10 X 0.70).
Anaheim has a 1.69 rating over the same period. If you think Ryan Getzlaf is a 0.95 point-per-game player then you should expect about 1.61 points from him. So even though Ryan Getzlaf is a better player you may choose to go with Kesler over Getzlaf.
Quick starts:
Last year the NY Rangers got off to a hot start playing more games early in the season due to their trip to Europe. As a result players like Aaron Voros looked to be performing better when in reality they had just played more games. Voros was the hot commodity last season and the return some GMs were getting was mind blasting. This year there isn't one team that stands out above the rest but there are a few to keep an eye on. Calgary is the first to seven games and players like Nigel Dawes and Dustin Boyd could be this years Voros. Colorado, NYR, San Jose and Vancouver are the first to 15 games. San Jose and Vancouver are the first to 20.
Due to the Olympics the Canucks play the majority of their games at home and starting the end of January they start a record 14 game road trip. Towards the end of January start shopping Luongo and the Sedins as their numbers should be good having played more games than most teams and they may start to slump during such a long road trip.
Slow starts:
On the other side of the spectrum, no team will have played less games by November 13th then Atlanta. At times they are as many as six games behind the league leaders in games played. Between mid November and early December, start to target players like Antropov and Little as their owners may be frustrated with their play, when you know its actually due to the lack of games played.
Yahoo playoffs:
Round 1 (March 15-21): LA and Montreal only play two games. Every other team plays three or four
Round 2 (March 22- 28): Every team plays three of four games.
Round 3 (March 29 – April 11): There are six teams that play 8 games, fourteen teams that play 7 games and ten teams that play 6 games.
More detailed stats will be provided closer to the playoffs.
Five games in 7 nights:
Only 15 times does a team play 5 games in 7 nights. It happens to Calgary, Los Angeles and St. Louis twice.
Please feel free to send a PM to crazynuck in the forums with any questions you may have or any suggestions/changes to improve the weekly article.
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Thursday, October 1 to Wednesday October 7, 2009 |
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Best Bets |
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Vancouver 4.10 – four games, two at home |
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Montreal 3.96 – four games away |
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Pittsburgh 3.18 – 3 games NYR, NYI and Phx |
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Toronto 3.10 – 3 games Mtl, Wsh and Ott |
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Carolina 3.06 – 3 games Phi, Bos and Tbay |
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Steer Clear |
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Nashville 1.03 – ONE game vs Dal |
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NY Islanders 1.05 – ONE game vs Pitt |
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Buffalo 1.08 – ONE game vs Mtl |
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Atlanta 1.23 – ONE game vs Tbay |
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Anaheim 1.69 – two games vs SJ and Min |
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Friday, October 2 to Thursday October 8, 2009 |
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Best Bets |
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Pittsburgh 4.13 – four games, two at home |
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Philadelphia 3.87 – four games, two at home |
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NY Rangers 3.80 – four games, three away |
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Edmonton 3.32 – three games at home |
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St.Louis 3.27 – three games, two vs Det |
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Steer Clear |
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Florida 1.80 – 2 games vs Chi |
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Colorado 1.90 – 2 games vs Van and Nsh |
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NY Islanders 1.99 – 2 games vs Pitt and Ott |
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Dallas 2.02 – two games vs Nsh and Edm |
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Toronto 2.02 – two games vs Wsh and Ott |
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Saturday, October 3 to Friday October 9, 2009 |
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Best Bets |
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Calgary 4.19 – four games, two in Edm |
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Edmonton 3.32 – three games at home |
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Ottawa 3.26 – three games, two away |
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Washington 3.20 – three games vs Tor, Phi and NYR |
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Pittsburgh 3.17 – three games, two away |
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Steer Clear
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Florida 1.85 – two games vs Chi and Car |
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Chicago 1.89 – two games at home vs Fla and Det |
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Colorado 1.90 – two games vs Van and Nsh |
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Detroit 1.97 – two games at home |
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NY Islanders 1.99 – two games vs Pitt and Ott |
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Sunday October 4 to Saturday October 10, 2009 |
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Best Bets |
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Ottawa 3.63 – three games, two at home |
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Carolina 3.36 – three games, two at home |
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Edmonton 3.31 – three games all at home |
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Pittsburgh 3.23 – three games, two on the road |
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Calgary 3.20 – three games, two at home |
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Steer Clear |
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NY Rangers 1.81 – two games on the road vs NJ and Wsh |
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NY Islanders 1.72 – two games on the road vs Bos and Ott |
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Florida 1.83 – two games vs Car and NJ |
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Colorado 1.79 – two games on the road vs Nsh and Chi |
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Atlanta 1.87 – two games on the road vs Stl and Ott |
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Monday October 5 to Sunday October 11, 2009 |
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Best Bets |
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Ottawa 3.63 – three games, two at home |
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Carolina 3.36 – three games, two games at home |
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Edmonton 3.31 – three games all at home |
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Anaheim 3.39 – four games all on the road |
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Pittsburgh 3.23 – three games, two on the road |
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Steer Clear |
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NY Islanders 1.72 – two games on the road vs Ott and Bos |
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Colorado 1.79 – two games on the road vs Nsh and Chi |
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Florida 1.83 – two games vs Car and NJ |
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Atlanta 1.87 – two games on the road vs Stl and Ott |
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Detroit 2.03 – two games at home vs Chi and Wsh |
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Tuesday October 6 to Monday October 12, 2009 |
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Best Bets |
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Ottawa 4.68 – four games, three at home |
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Edmonton 4.24 – four games, three at home |
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Pittsburgh 4.17 – four games, three on the road |
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Calgary 4.06 – four games, two at home |
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SJ 3.93 – four games, three at home |
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Steer Clear |
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Columbus 1.81 – two games on the road vs SJ and Phx |
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Atlanta 1.87 – two games on the road vs Stl and Ott |
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Detroit 2.03 – two games at home vs Chi and Wsh |
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Buffalo 2.04 – two games vs Phx and Nsh |
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Vancouver 2.22 – two games at home vs Mtl and Dal |
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Wednesday October 7 to Tuesday October 13, 2009 |
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Best Bets |
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Pittsburgh 4.17 – four games, three on the road |
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Calgary 3.89 – four games, three on the road |
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Colorado 3.73 – four games all on the road |
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Phoenix 3.70 – four games, three on the road |
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Ottawa 3.51 – three games at home vs NYI, Atl and Pitt |
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Steer Clear |
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Minnesota 1.74 – two games on the road vs LA and SJ |
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Dallas 1.86 – two games on the road vs Cal and Van |
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Montreal 1.86 – two games on the road vs Van and Edm |
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Atlanta 1.87 – two games on the road vs Stl and Ott |
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Philadelphia 2.10 – two games at home vs Pit and Ana |
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UPCOMING GAMES
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LINE COMBOS
| Frequency |
 PIT Players
| |
|---|---|---|
| 21.0 | RICKARD RAKELL SIDNEY CROSBY ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER | |
| 18.7 | BRYAN RUST EVGENI MALKIN MICHAEL BUNTING | |
| 14.7 | JESSE PULJUJARVI SAM POULIN DREW O'CONNOR | |
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