June 27, 2010

Dobber Sports

2010-06-27

Goldie here. I finally settled down from the insanity that was the draft. I’m in heaven, as I get to see plenty of Aittokallio, Pickard and even Sam Brittain (headed to DU) over the next few years. Check out my Goalie Draft Tracker for extensive analysis on the first 11 goalies chosen.

 

Regarding Karlsson now with Calgary, I echo Dobber’s sentiments in the sense that everyone should keep a VERY close eye on him. You’ll learn a lot more about his style and fantasy upside in tomorrow’s School of Block! Please note that “The Current State of Predators Goaltending” will be pushed back another week so we can focus on draft reviews and the free-agency frenzy. 

 

Thanks to fzusher for digging this up – Henrik Karlsson did not actually put his signature on a KHL contract, as he was hoping to get into the NHL this year. He will play in Calgary and will back up Kiprussoff. Given how shaky Kipper has been – more and more frequently the last two seasons – do not be shocked if Karlsson steals the job by midseason. I know it seems unfathomable, but we have seen sleeper goalies hone in on established, well-paid goalies before: Mason vs. Vokoun, Ellis vs. Mason, Rinne vs. Ellis, Bryzgalov vs. Giguere, Backstrom vs. Fernandez… The translated link is here.

 

The Flyers are negotiating with Evgeni Nabokov. If they sign him, they’ll think all their problems are solved. But what if Nabokov is declining? What if he was never a 93/100 goaltender? What if he was only, say 82/100 skill-wise and his team’s system brought him the other 11/100? Would the Flyers be signing Khabibulin II? You saw how effective Khabibulin was last year. The Oilers signed him at 36. Nabokov will be 35 next month. That being said, Nabokov is far healthier than ‘Bulin and is a much better goaltender at this stage in his career. But I don’t believe he’s as good as his numbers and I definitely don’t believe he’ll be as good as his contract. Would $6 million force the team to trade Jeff Carter? Would Flyer fans prefer Nabokov and minimum salary center, or Carter and a minimum salary goaltender? Just thoughts I’m putting out there. I liked the idea of the Flyers acquiring Price or Halak over this idea. And just to stop any angry commenters before they start, I will clarify again – I don’t think Nabokov is as bad as Khabibulin – he is far better (and healthier) at this stage. I just think that he’ll be a No. 12 goalie in the league getting paid No. 3 or 4 salary. I know it’s been a Philly weakness for years and years, but this might be overcompensating.

 

Columbus draft pick Petr Straka (second round) has the upside of Martin Havlat, according to Allan Walsh his agent. Hopefully that upside is in offense, and not injuries.

 

Chicago made 10 picks on the weekend. Because they need more depth. Just kidding. But this is brilliant strategy and not even cap issues will stop this team from being a contender for the next decade. The pipeline – and the NHL team – is flush with talent.

 

Carolina acquired Jonathan Matsumoto from the Flyers. He’s a fourth liner who will be in and out of the lineup. But he’s also a bit of an overacheiver so I wouldn’t be shocked if he becomes the next Chad Larose either.

 

Interesting project – does anyone want to take it on? How did Matt Bugg do? Look at his Top 90 Mock in the Fantasy Prospects Report and look at the THN Top 100 and Bob McKenzie’s Top rankings. Then look at the actual picks (say – Top 50) and take the absolute value of the differences between actual and Mock. Add them up. Who has the lower number?

 

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Keep in mind, McKenzie got to release his the day before the draft and only after talking to all the GM’s enough to know who they like and then rank accordingly. Bugg’s was out two weeks in advance and doesn’t have that kind of ‘in’ with the GM’s.

 

If the Penguins sign both Gonchar and Hamhuis, they will be incredibly strong on the blue line and of course at center. But their wingers will continue to be pitiful. I know Penguins fans feel that the PP is useless without Gonchar – and that certainly the case last year. BUT, in the case of Goligoski and Letang, you have to assume improvement. Look at Tomas Kaberle – he never had more than 47 points before he was 27. Take Gonchar himself – in four-and-a-half seasons he never reached 42 points. Now look at him. Letang and Goli will be fine. Be patient. Letang is now entering his fourth year and Goligoski his third. Each are on the cusp – within two years (maybe three for Goli) of really exploding. With more responsibility, each will get 45 points this season. Then next year, you’ll see the big leap that you were perhaps hoping for in 2009-10. But the Pens need to spend that $5 million on a top winger via trade.

 

I’ll have an article up today with some Draft musings. I will also review the Draft in my THN article on Tuesday, so watch for those.

 

We had over 600 readers at one time or another in our live chat yesterday. We will be having another one for the Free Agent frenzy – if you want a great way to bend my ear, as well as the ears of Angus, Ma, Lemon, Miller, Goldman and other DobberHockey writers, be sure to join us Thursday at noon!

 

Los Angeles is rumored to preparing a substantial offer for Ilya Kovalchuk. Talk about a mistake. The Kings are on a fantastic growth curve, there is no need to accelerate it by tying their hands salary-wise for the next 10 years. Stupid.

 

Yes, the pattern with me seems to be – don’t sign any UFA’s. And that’s not exactly true. But I think some teams are moving in the right direction as is (LA) and other teams need to allocate their money more wisely and cant’ afford the quick fix (Philadelphia). Some teams can both afford it and should spend it – but those aren’t the teams we’re hearing rumors about.

 

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 24 - 19:11 TOR vs UTA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KENT JOHNSON CBJ
JOSH MANSON COL
VALERI NICHUSHKIN COL
AARON EKBLAD FLA
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
JONATHAN QUICK NYR
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
ALEXANDAR GEORGIEV COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CBJ Players
20.8 DMITRI VORONKOV SEAN MONAHAN KIRILL MARCHENKO
20.5 KEVIN LABANC KENT JOHNSON ADAM FANTILLI
15.5 COLE SILLINGER MATHIEU OLIVIER YEGOR CHINAKHOV

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson Short Shifts – Regicide

Jeremy and Shams are here to break down all the new injuries and update timelines as well. After all the injury news they close out the show covering all the cold Kings players giving actionable fantasy advice on each one. Lastly, they close out the show the latest hot Russian forward for Columbus that is only 1% rostered on Yahoo right now.

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