Ellis' new deal, Horton's injury woes, Parise on advanced stats and more…

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After plenty of talk that the Predators and Ryan Ellis weren't close to a deal they came to an agreement on a new contract for the defenseman last night.

Details weren't officially released but the scuttlebutt has it down as a five-year deal worth an average of $2.5 million per season.

That's a very club friendly deal. I was expecting a bridge contract somewhere in that range for average annual value. The Predators have definitely got a knack for figuring out these longer deals and really gambling on the development of the player within their system. They did a similar deal when extending Roman Josi for seven years at a cap hit of $4 million per.

Josi then proceeded to breakout last season and now that deal looks like a future bargain with the cap set to climb skyward. Of course, not everyone loved Josi's deal when it came out but I loved it. Solid investment in a player on the cusp. Now they are reaping the rewards.

You've got to wonder if the Predators aren't going this direction with their young defenders after learning how things can go poorly after their experiences with Ryan Suter and Shea Weber.

Weber signed a three-year bridge contract after his entry-level deal and then wound up with a one-year deal after salary arbitration. Then he hit restricted free agency again where things got ugly and he signed a crippling offer sheet. His deal is back diving but they are still chewing on some very expensive years in terms of salary. More importantly, they nearly lost the best player in franchise history because they couldn't get him to ink a longer deal.

Similar story with Suter. After his entry-level deal, the Predators gave him a decent raise on a four-year "prove it" deal. That brought Suter to unrestricted free agency where they simply couldn't afford him.

This Ellis deal probably has more in common with Suter's second contract than any other's they'd signed in the past but it is still a year longer and very affordable. This will take Ellis to his age 29 season, so presumably the Predators have bought up most of his prime years here.

I do have my issues with this deal though. While I think it's a great strategy to invest in long term deals for young players you really believe in, I'm not sure that I personally believe in Ellis. It's as much about his fit with the team as it is to do with his talent though.

I think that on a lot of teams Ellis could have a serious role to play on the power play. Not on this team. The Predators power play is run by Weber and Josi who aren't going anywhere.

The team also has young defenseman Seth Jones, who they are no doubt grooming for

a big role as well. It's just hard to see how Ellis is going to be anything but a second power play unit/third pairing defenseman with these guys in tow. $2.5 million isn't exorbitant for a third pairing defenseman but you'd also hope that if you are investing in him long term that you'd give him the opportunity to grow. Unless a Weber trade is coming, there's little room to grow.

And while $2.5 million for a third pairing defenseman isn't exorbitant it is still a luxury purchase for a team that can't really afford to make any. So there is opportunity cost all the same.

Rather than being able to graduate a defenseman from their system to the pros and play him on his entry-level deal, they'll have Ellis blocking his path, while also tying up funds that could be allocated up front, where the team has consistently bought at the bottom of the free agent market.

Part of that is because Nashville isn't a prime free agency destination and part is because the team simply hasn't had the money to spend at the top of free agency. This just exacerbates the problem though.

Of course, maybe Nashville isn't a team that should be buying at the top of free agency anyway. That's where the biggest mistakes are frequently made. There's also the matter of leaving spots open for the Predators to graduate their forward prospects to the pro club. Keeping Ellis instead of potentially buying a forward means the opportunity for a forward to graduate instead of a defenseman.

The fact that the Predators have done much better with developing defensemen (not to mention spent more draft capital) throws a wrench into this notion but can't eliminate it entirely.

Ultimately, my point is that the Predators have locked up a good player on a deal with a ton of upside for them, which is good. I just don't see how Ellis becomes the player he could be unless there's another shoe to drop here. As long as Weber and Jones are around, Ellis won't have much chance to develop into a real fantasy asset. But maybe I’m looking too far into this.