Thoughts on Markstrom and the goalie market, Schwartz’s new contract, and the latest on Jonathan Drouin… 

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Probably the biggest spot of hockey news this weekend is the St. Louis Blue agreeing to terms on a two-year $4.7 million contract with 50 point 22-year-old winger Jaden Schwartz. The breakdown of the contract is interesting in that Schwartz will earn $2.7 million in the second year of the contract, which assures that he’ll get a higher qualifying offer in the summer of 2016. 

“The two-year contract is good for both parties,” St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong told Lou Korac of NHL.com. “It gives Jaden the opportunity to establish himself in the NHL.

“When you’re projecting term on any player it’s easier to do when they have a longer resume,” Armstrong continued. “Jaden had a great year last year. I think if he’s a three-time 25-goal scorer, he’s going to be paid at a much different rate than we’re paying him at now. We just want to make sure that’s the conisstent player we’re going to get moving forward. I think these bridge deals are only done to allow both sides to get comfortable (with) where players fit into the league.”

Schwartz is a bit of an interesting case in that, in my estimation, he’s not a P.K. Subban or even a Ryan Johansen-type surefire future superstar; so signing him to a bridge deal isn’t extremely short-sighted (as it is in those other cases).

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While Schwartz’s first NHL season was wildly impressive, it was also built off of percentages (including a 103.6 PDO). Still he managed to finish 35th in the entire league in even-strength goal scoring rate, 20th in overall assist rate, and 25th in rate of primary assists.

Basically Schwartz produced like a bona fide first-line forward last season, but may have been unduly fortunate in amassing those points. This is a case where it’s good for fantasy general managers to remember that though Schwartz hasn’t even really entered his prime yet, the way young players develop isn’t linear.

Like remember when Jordan Eberle was a 70+ per season player and everyone thought he was just getting started? Kind of like that. 

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How should Schwartz be valued going into next season fantasy wise? On the one hand, he produced at a beastly rate last season, and it’s not difficult to imagine him meshing well with a player like Paul Stastny. On the other, the Blues don’t take shots at a particularly high rate and their offensive success last season was built off of percentages.

Though the club is awash in talent, because of the way Ken Hitchcock likes to play, the Blues may be a fringe top-10 offensive team only quite unlike what they showed last season. Also I’d anticipate a slower start for Schwartz after he missed training camp. 

Because of the system he plays in, the way percentages likely inflated his point totals last season, and his status (having missed the first week and change of training camp) my advice is not to value Schwartz like a first-liner in fantasy drafts this upcoming week.

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A critical note on Jonathan Drouin for those of us in keeper leagues (or those of us drafting this week): he’s going to play some NHL games this season in spite of his injury.

#tblightning Yzerman calls injury to @jodrouin27 a minor setback. “We’re going to put him in the lineup.” How he plays determines role

— Joe Smith (@TBTimes_JSmith) September 27, 2014

Drouin is expected to miss two-to-three more weeks after fracturing his thumb roughly a week ago, but he’s just too good to go back to the QMJHL and the Lightning know it. This part is just a hunch, but they also probably know that they need to play Steven Stamkos with a high-end skill guy who can carry the puck if they want to maximize his ludicrous  scoring ability.

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The Lightning have introduced a new black third jersey, so now they’re ripping of the Los Angeles Kings as well as the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I actually like the sweater despite it’s brutal violation of my “no nicknames on jerseys” rule (remember the Ottawa ‘Sens’ jersey?). Though the sweater is pretty slick, I hope Lightning coach Jon Cooper knows that he has to work on his club’s penalty-killing a bit more now.

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The Unique Team Traits series that I’m concierging with Justin Bourne continued apace this week. We’ve now written up a systems profile of 23 teams, and you can find the entire series faithfully indexed here.

These pieces are killing me in terms of the work load, but I’m really proud of the work. They’re like the hockey blogger equivalent of two-a-days at training camp…

Anyway I hope you won’t mind if I plug the series once more since it has kind of taken over my life. Personally I think our best post from this past week was on the chemistry between Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron.

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Kasperi Kapanen scored a pretty sick goal on Sergei Bobrovsky in preseason action last night:

That’s one hell of a shot, but more astonishing might be Marcel Goc’s fine work on the half-wall (you’ll notice all the Blue Jackets penalty killers got faked out by the pass, and thought his feed was heading to the point). Who knew?

Kapanen fell to the Pittsburgh Penguins at the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, and they snapped him up with the 22nd pick, which could prove to be a massive steal. In light of Beau Bennett’s recent (unsurprising) injury, Kapanen might even have a shot at breaking camp with the Penguins. Highlights like that certainly won’t hurt his cause.

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Finally Jacob Markstrom and his $1.4 million salary cleared waivers yesterday, which really shouldn’t be much of a surprise. 

Markstrom, formerly rated as the top goaltending prospect in hockey, was acquired by the Canucks last Spring as part of the anemic return for Roberto Luongo. He played in four games with the Canucks, but he only started a game once the club was mathematically eliminated from the postseason while John Tortorella rode Eddie Lack (into the ground). 

Markstrom is on a bit of an interesting contract, which serves to partially explain why he cleared waivers. His deal is a hybrid-type contract, which was a two-way deal last season and morphed into a one-way deal with a $1.4 million salary (and a $1.2 million cap-hit) this season. That doesn’t seem like a tonne of money, but for a backup goaltender who has struggled to the extent Markstrom has (and he’s been very bad at the NHL level the past two seasons), it’s a super inefficient contract.

Consider that a third of the teams in the league wouldn’t even have the cap-space to put in a claim on Markstrom’s deal, and really that number is closer to half once you factor in teams like the Dallas Stars and the Columbus Blue Jackets who are still actively haggling with key RFAs. Then you have only two teams with both the cap-space to make it happen and only one goaltender on a one-way contract on the books (the Winnipeg Jets and New Jersey Devils). The market just isn’t there for Markstrom, even if the cost of acquiring him is “free.”

Compounding all of these issues further is that Markstrom’s deal expires following this season, and his qualifying offer will be tied to his $1.4 million salary (not his $1.2 million cap-hit). That $1.4 million number is pretty high for a goaltender who is unproven at the NHL level and who surely won’t get a chance to prove his mettle in ‘the show’ this season. Just looking at the fundamentals of the goaltender market, it seems very likely that Markstrom is going to be non-tendered this coming June.

Still, while the focus at the moment is “wow the Canucks can’t even give Markstrom away!” it’s worth keeping in mind that the club actually did want him to remain in the organization. 

Jacob Markstrom was having a great camp. They did not want to expose him in games. Canucks are happy to see him stay in the organization.

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) September 27, 2014

We don’t have to just take Lavoie’s word for it by the way, it’s obvious from the timing of this whole thing. The club rather obviously “snuck” Markstrom through by waiving him this early in the wittling down process. They made sure to get him through waivers before any injuries weakened another club’s goaltending depth.

So what’s the end game for Vancouver here? Surely Markstrom – who has been consistently elite at the AHL level despite his struggles in ‘the show’ – will be helpful to the Utica Comets, though you can buy solid AHL goaltending for much cheaper than $1.4 million (and $275,000 in dead space against the salary cap).

The only other thing that makes any sense is that Markstrom gives the club some flexibility should either Lack or Ryan Miller get injured at some point this season, or on the trade market should the Canucks decide to move a goaltender (more likely Lack than Miller, whose contract includes a modified NTC).

If there’s one organization that you know is going to trade a goaltender when you least expect it, it’s the Vancouver Canucks. Of course, goaltenders are junk as trade assets, and as the Canucks have proven time and time again, it’s very hard to win a goalie trade. Maybe the third time is a charm?