Taking a look back at the “expert” pre-season predictions for the Western Conference.

Most predictions are abandoned moments after they are made, never to be visited by their creators again. That’s particularly tragic given that the perspective of a carefully examined summer study shold still hold good value months later – and it’s a perspective that can be even further improved the following year when its successes and failures are examined.

That’s why I’m using the year-end holiday pause to go back to the pre-season projections of almost 100 analysts, and comparing them to the current standings. The goal is to try to learn something by explaining any notable differences, and to use this information to predict what will happen the rest of the way.

Each divisional section begins with a table that breaks down all the relevant information at a high level. Categories include:

• Current position in the standings, which is based on winning percentage, since not every team has played the same number of games. It does not include Friday night’s games.
• Expected position in the standings, which is based on the consensus of 97 sets of published projections, which are available here on Dobber.
• The difference in points, which is how many more (or less) points a team would have had to earn to currently stand where they were predicted to be.
• The Luck Index, which is the effect on the standings various luck-based factors have had on a team, as measured in points. Factors (to varying degrees) include injuries, shooting and save percentages, special teams, record in one-goal games, and in the overtime and shootout. It’s available at Hockey Abstract.
• Projected position, which is where they are currently projected to finish, using a variety of statistical methods available at Hockey Reference, Sports Club Status, Playoff Status, and Ineffective Math.

We’ll start with the Western Conference today, and hit the Eastern Conference next weekend.

Central Division

Chicago, St. Louis, and Minnesota are all almost exactly where they were expected to be, but Nashville and Winnipeg have been much better, while Colorado and Dallas have been much worse.

Team      Win% Current Expected Difference Luck Index Projected

Chicago   .703   1st     1st       N/A       +5 pts      1st

Nashville .700   2nd     6th      +9 pts     +6 pts    2nd/3rd

St. Louis .688   3rd     2nd      -1 pt      +3 pts    3rd/4th

Winnipeg  .594   4th     7th     +10 pts     -2 pts    4th/5th

Minnesota .567   5th     4th      -2 pts     -1 pt     4th/5th

Dallas    .483   6th     3rd     -13 pts     -3 pts      6th

Colorado  .452   7th     5th      -8 pts     -3 pts      7th 

The top five teams from the Central division could potentially qualify for the post-season, which will feature a reasonably close three-way race for first, two teams jockeying for one of the better wild card positions, and very little chance for either Dallas and Colorado, the latter of whom could finish as low as 28^th overall.

Chicago Blackhawks