January 16, 2015

steve laidlaw

2015-01-16

The Midseason Guide was released this week – pick it up here right now!

 

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DOOOOOOOOOOOOOBIE!!

 

Devan Dubnyk starts off his Wild tenure with a cream puff against the Sabres needing just 18 saves for a comfortable 7-0 shutout win. Great confidence booster right there. The Wild have home games against the Coyotes and Blue Jackets coming up next so it's looking good. I could see him going on a run similar to what Darcy Kuemper did to start this season just because of how the schedule has been laid out for him. Things really couldn't have lined up more perfectly.

 

Jason Pominville was top scorer for the Wild in what was really a complete team effort. He added three assists to help continue what's been a month and a half straight of point-per-game production. Since December rolled around he's scored 21 points in 20 games after just 15 through the first 23. Credit the power play for added production. Seven of his 21 points these past 20 games have come on the power play.

 

Matt Dumba was called up with Ryan Suter suspended and filled in a nice fantasy line, scoring a goal, adding a fight and going plus-three. Doubtful you'll need someone for Saturday's jam-packed schedule but if you do you could do worse than Dumba.

 

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That's two shutouts in a row for the Rangers against some tough opponents but more importantly, without top centerman Derek Stepan. Stepan did start the other night against the Islanders but did not finish the game as he was injured. He's currently day-to-day with an upper-body injury. No surprise that the Rangers struggled without him. The WOWY (with or without you) numbers are staggering.

 

Without Stepan: 6-5-2 record, 2.38 goals per game, 13% power play efficiency

 

With Stepan: 18-8-2 record, 3.25 goals per game, 23% power play efficiency

 

The sample size is on the smaller side but I think that this confirms what we've seen; the Rangers are much better with Stepan in the lineup because they simply do not have the depth at center to make up for his absence.

 

At least they didn't try throwing Martin St. Louis back in at center. Instead it was JT Miller suiting up in Stepan's stead but I'm not convinced Miller should be a centerman or in anyone's top six.

 

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Duchene is sitting with an above-average on-ice shooting percentage of 9.49%, while O'Reilly is at about league average at 7.83%. Both MacKinnon and Landeskog are sitting below average at 6.67% and 6.69% respectively but the gap to get up to average would only mean a point or two.

 

More likely, Tanguay comes back to Earth as his 11.02% on-ice shooting percentage is among the most fortunate in the league. Between his potential for injury and his likely regression I don't see how you can do anything but attempt to sell high on Tanguay. His reputation has probably eroded so much that you don't get a great return but it's worth trying so you don't get left holding the bag.

 

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How about four thumbs up to Ondrej Pavelec stopping 46 of 47 shots to hang on for the win against the Stars last night? He ended his streak of four losses in a row with four goals allowed in each!

 

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Some very interesting thoughts from Ken Hitchcock on the plausibility of scoring 50 goals in today's NHL:

 

"The only way you can score 50 goals in the National Hockey League is to be able to score from distance," said Hitchcock. "There's probably six or seven who can score like that. You have to get 10 to 20 goals from distance. I don't think you can be a crash player, a net-presence player, and score 50 anymore. It's impossible.

"There's too many teams playing the swarm. Too many bodies there. Too many shot-blocking teams. But if you can score from distance like Stamkos or Ovechkin or Seguin. This is the first time I've coached in, say the last 10 or 12 years where there's significant guys who can drill it. If they get it from the top of the circle or at the dot, they can beat you one-on-one.

"But, you can't score 50 unless it's that way, not the way team defences are structured in today's game. Those are the pockets that are open now. There is no chance to bring the puck to the net if you are below the goal-line. Too many numbers there."

 

I don't know that he's said anything ground-breaking here. I'd argue that it's always been difficult to impossible to score 50 without being able to score from distance. What's really changed is that goalies simply don't let you score from distance the way they used to so it takes a rare breed to be able to score from distance in today's NHL. That's an important distinction to make, especially if you are to see any value in my next link.

 

I stumbled upon a new stat from fourthlineheroes.com. It's called "Goals Above Expected" and measures the difference between the actual number of goals scored and the number of goals scored we'd expect a player to have scored based strictly on shot distances.

 

Now, I could poke any number of holes in this stat by asking some simple questions like: how is this shot data acquired? Or, at what point does the sample size become relevant enough to make conclusions on if a player is really a good distance shooter (sniper) or merely a fortunate one?

 

But it's interesting and worth looking at. What excites me is that they have data on this going back to the 2007-08 season. Who are the best at "Goals Above Expected" since then? Glad you asked:

 

1. Steven Stamkos – 84.9 GAO

2. Alexander Ovechkin – 75.6 GAO

3. Ilya Kovalchuk – 57.0 GAO

4. Phil Kessel – 43.0 GAO

5. Jarome Iginla – 42.8 GAO

6. Alexander Semin – 39.8 GAO

7. Patrick Sharp – 39.1 GAO

8. Mike Cammalleri – 36.3 GAO

9. Sidney Crosby – 36.0 GAO

10. Pavel Datsyuk – 35.1 GAO

 

Pretty much a who's who of goal scorers. In fact, almost everyone on this list is among the top goal scorers since 2007-08. Only Datsyuk and Cammalleri have fallen short of 180 goals since then.

 

Another interesting factoid: Corey Perry ranks third in goals since 2007-08 but has just 2.1 GAO over that span. In other words, Perry gets to the net hard. I'm going to have some fun with these stats for the next few weeks. I hope you do too!

 

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The Coyotes called up Mike Lee from the ECHL to be their backup. He's been off the radar for a while now as he has battled injuries since going pro but he was once the starter for the US World Junior squad so he has some pedigree. I'm all for giving him a chance to get coached up by Sean Burke.

 

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Matt Frattin has been called up by the Leafs. He doesn't really have much fantasy value but with a new coach maybe he'll find a new role.

 

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No suspension for Sami Vatanen for the elbow he tossed at David Booth the other night. Just a fine but now he's on record as an offender.

 

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Make sure you check out Brendan Ross' latest prospect ramblings!

 

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You know, sometimes you've got to watch amateur sports to see some truly amazing things happen, like this goal from a high school game:

 

 

Slick mitts!

 

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You can follow me @SteveLaidlaw.

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