Beasts of the East (2015) – Goalies
Eric Daoust
2015-07-29
Daoust takes a look at the best fantasy bets for goalies in the Eastern Conference…
Over the next few weeks we will examine the best goalies, defensemen, right wingers, left wingers and centers in the Eastern Conference. The rankings will be based on fantasy value for the upcoming NHL year. Thus age will not be a huge factor other than forecasting potential breakouts and disappointments. For the goalies the key factors will be individual talent, the team the goalie plays behind, other goaltending options and the goalie's fantasy production history. Wins, GAA and save percentage will receive the bulk of the focus.
5) Tuukka Rask – Boston
To the surprise of many, the Bruins failed to qualify for the playoffs last year. Despite the setback, Rask still had a very strong campaign with 34 wins and a .922 save percentage. In fact, this was only the second time in his career that he has fallen short of .929. Needless to say, Rask has been extremely stable statistically over the years.
When the Bruins were a powerhouse, Rask's GAA hovered around the 2.00 mark. While this is likely not possible with the current team in front of him, last year's 2.30 is still solid and should be attainable again as the Bruins should still be a strong defensive club. Plus, the fact that the team appears set to go without a proven backup for the second straight year makes Rask likely to once again push the 70-game mark.
Evidently, Rask has been an excellent goalie over the years and once upon a time was considered an elite fantasy goalie. However, the Bruins are in a state of transition at the moment and have made some big changes this summer. A lesser squad means Rask will be in tough to post elite-level totals in wins and GAA. Keep him on your radar at your fall draft though. Your opponents may overreact to the decline of the Bruins and forget that Rask is still a high-quality fantasy goalie.
4) Braden Holtby – Washington
Holtby responded very well to the arrival of Barry Trotz and had by far the best year of his young NHL career. He was able to maintain star averages including a GAA of 2.22 and a save percentage of .923 despite appearing in a whopping 73 contests on his way to a 41-win season.
With that said, it is important to keep things in perspective. Holtby's sample size prior to last year was small and his career-high in games played was just 48. So even though Holtby already has a massive long-term contract in his pocket, there is still some risk in projecting his fantasy value as well as our expectations for his regular workload. What we do know is the Capitals appear to be set on promoting Philip Grubauer to the backup spot after Justin Peters proved to be a disaster. Improved play at the backup spot will probably cut into Holtby's appearances a bit which could ultimately see him fall short of 40 wins this time.
Working for Holtby is the strong Capitals team in front on him. This is a strong regular season unit that should be able to offset the losses of Mike Green and Troy Brouwer with the additions of T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams. Also, young players like Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky look like potential stars in the making.
3) Ben Bishop – Tampa Bay
With a combined 125 games played and 77 wins over the last two years, Bishop combines strong fantasy numbers with being part of an elite NHL roster. The Lightning are full of young players with tons of untapped potential and have already achieved success highlighted by their trip to the Stanley Cup final this spring. This crop of young talent also includes top goalie prospect Andrei Vasilevskiy but he is more of a threat to Bishop after 2015-16 than he is right now.
Bishop's averages are also strong, in particular his GAA which is aided by the defensive play of the Lightning. His save percentage last year (.916) was a bit underwhelming but only a few points behind some of the other top goalies. It is worth noting that in 2013-14 his save percentage sat at .924.
Bishop's environment helps his fantasy value immensely. His ranking is influenced by the Lightning making him more likely to reach 40 wins again barring injury. Unfortunately, in pools with members that are casual hockey fans Bishop is likely to go off the board early due to the exposure he received this spring.
2) Henrik Lundqvist – New York Rangers
A model of consistency for many years, Lundqvist is still a force in fantasy land. Although last year was affected by a neck injury, it was nevertheless the sixth straight time he finished with a save percentage of .920 or better. Looking at individual years he may not stand out but the fact that he avoids drops in production makes him gold. You know what you are getting and his averages are always close to the top.
Oddly enough, Lundqvist's reduced workload the last two years coincides with the arrival of Cam Talbot in the NHL. Talbot's strong play led to a trade to the Edmonton Oilers. Barring further injury, Lundqvist should be back up around 65 games this year and could see a few extra starts depending on how new backup Antti Raanta adjusts to New York. The Rangers are also one of the top Eastern Conference teams which can only help Lundqvist keep his win totals up.
1) Carey Price – Montreal
The reigning Hart trophy winner is playing at a level above any other NHL goalie. Last year was obviously a dream season and may be the best we ever see from Price but in 2013-14 he was also outstanding with 34 wins in 59 games and a .927 save percentage. He does not match Lundqvist's consistency but his peak play in each of the last two years is unmatched.
After bottoming out in 2011-12, the Canadiens have righted the ship with three straight years sporting a winning percentage of .610 or better including two division titles. It will be difficult for the team to pull off that feat again without improving at the offensive end. Nevertheless, Price will see a ton of action and his averages will remain outstanding if not once again at the very top of the league, even if he takes a small step back statistically.
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Newcomers
Robin Lehner – Buffalo
Acquired from Ottawa at the draft, the 24-year-old Lehner is now the Sabres' undisputed starter. While they have done a lot to improve their team this summer, headlined by drafting Jack Eichel and trading for Ryan O'Reilly, we have to remember how awful this team was last year. Even with reinforcements arriving, the Sabres have a long way to go.
There is a good chance that Lehner's numbers will not look pretty this year. With that said, there is no competition behind him with Chad Johnson in the backup role and no great prospect goalie chomping at the bit for a promotion to the NHL. Thus, Lehner will see a lot of time in the crease for better or for worse.
This fall, you might want to pass on Lehner unless you want to gamble on a starting goalie late and there are no other options available. After all, each year we see a team or two that come out of nowhere and surprise. When that happens, goalies are usually benefactors from a fantasy standpoint.
Eddie Lack – Carolina
Lack has done well since making the leap to the NHL, appearing in 41 games in each of his two years spent with the Canucks. The numbers looked good especially last year when he had 18 wins and a .921 save percentage. At the very least, he looks like a solid platoon goalie and could even have potential for more.
Unfortunately, the move to Carolina is a major hit to his fantasy value. The Hurricanes are an incredibly shallow team that has missed the playoffs for six straight years. Like Lehner, Lack is in tough to post good fantasy numbers this year. However, the Hurricanes also have Cam Ward, a longtime starter in Carolina and a former Conn Smythe winner. Ward has been ineffective since 2011 but will still see his share of starts. Lack is likely the better goalie but Ward may still see the majority of the starts. This would be a situation similar to what Cory Schneider, another former Canuck, faced in his first year with the New Jersey Devils.
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