Ramblings: Pageau, Silfverberg, caution on Nolan Patrick, and more (May 01)

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I agree with Ian, who wrote yesterday that J-G Pageau’s success will be short-term due to lack of PP time. However, his performance on Saturday has certainly changed my strategy with him. I own him in my one league and he was a borderline drop. I need to cut about three guys loose (depending on how many picks I have at the draft and who is available when it’s my turn to draft) and Pageau was going to be the last guy out. But four goals in one game can’t be scored by just anybody. He’s 24 years old and I have made it a policy not to drop or trade away players who are 25 or 26, so he’s closing in on that window. Does Coach Boucher now think of him differently? Will Pageau get the nod a little more when it’s time to throw out the second PP unit? If lines start to struggle (next season) does this mean Pageau starts to see better linemates? It’s got me wondering if Pageau will be a lesser Brad Marchand. Where Marchand gets 50 points, 50 points, 50, 50, 50, 50, 60, 85 (or thereabouts)…maybe Pageau gets 35, 35, 35, 35, 35, 35, 45, 70? One of those steady producers who is buried with no PP time, suddenly stepping up with better production later in his 20s thanks to improved PP time. So now the question becomes – if I sit on him for another year or two, will there be a payoff? I think it’s worth seeing if he gets tried at all with Mark Stone (who he’s clicked with before) next season . The four-goal game has, at this point, delayed my decision to drop him in my rather deep league.

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I was going to discuss how amazed I was how each series in the second round was seemingly already over. But then Anaheim happened. That first goal by Rickard Rakell set a franchise record for fastest goal scored in a playoff games at 25 seconds. But then I was impressed at how the Oilers marched back from a 3-0 deficit and actually tied it up before things fell apart again.

Once again, Jakob Silfverberg came up huge in the postseason. In his last 30 playoff games, Silfverberg has 31 points! I can’t believe there are still some people out there who think Silfverberg will be left unprotected in the expansion draft. No way – the Ducks value this guy more than Sami Vatanen. In fact, not that it matters because he has an NMC, but they value Silfverberg more than Corey Perry. Discuss.

Silfverberg’s two-way play (almost Selke-consideration-worthy) is highly coveted, and Ducks brass see the upward trajectory of his blossoming offense just as clearly as you and I.

Speaking of Corey Perry – zero points in the series so far, one goal in his last 14 playoff games. Clutch!

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Jordan Eberle had a hat trick in the last game of the regular season but has not scored in nine games since. He was also minus-3 on Sunday.

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You often see a hardworking, grit-and-leadership type of player pull off some surprising playoff point totals and that’s no exception for Nashville who has Colton Sissons. With two more assists Sunday he has six points in seven games. Pageau, noted above, is another example of this. For what it’s worth though, I think Pageau has a bit of offensive upside whereas Sissons does not.

Jake Allen has given up nine goals on 90 shots in this series (0.900 SV%). Minnesota couldn’t find a way to crack him, but the Preds sue have. And it’s not even their big guns that are doing it – Ryan Johansen and Filip Forsberg have combined for three points in the series so far.

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Ryan Ellis has points in six consecutive games.

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I’m still going to pick against the Penguins in the Expert’s projection article, but at this point my decision to do this is becoming a farce. The Pens are one of my teams (Toronto, Edmonton are the others) and I want them to win another Cup (playing against Edmonton will have me cheering for Edmonton, though). The Penguins going all the way will help me win both of my playoff pools. So, what I’m saying is if the Penguins move on and you see my picking the Senators (or Rangers) for next round – just know that at that point it will just be superstition. I’m having a terrible year for picking playoff winners so I may as well give in to my superstitious side. No secret inside information. No special strategy. Just 100% superstition.

Per Elias, Jake Guentzel became just the third player since 1943-44 to score at least seven goals in his first seven playoff games, joining Maurice Richard (10 in 1943-44) and Dino Ciccarelli (7 in 1980-81).

 Sidney Crosby (1-1—2), who has at least one point in each of his past six contests (4-7—11), registered his 52nd career multi-point game in the postseason to pass Mario Lemieux for the most in franchise history.

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This is an interesting factoid about Nolan Patrick:

Here is Nolan Patrick's unofficial injury history. Compiled from web reports and doesn't included day-to-day stuff pic.twitter.com/nIogXcFkjF

— Steve Kournianos (@TheDraftAnalyst) May 1, 2017

I had been leaning towards Nico lately, in terms of fantasy value, but this info pretty much seals it. That’s not to say that Patrick will be a guaranteed Band-Aid Boy, but if the upside is too close to call – then why risk it?

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Here are the final 20 Fantasy Thoughts of the season. I hope we’ll be back contributing to Sportsnet next season, but I won’t find out until September. But it’s been a good two-year partnership so far.

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The Blackhawks lost a very promising prospect on the weekend thanks to the NHL’s (in my opinion rightful) decision to skip the next Olympics. Maxim Shalunov signed a three-year contract extension to remain in the KHL. Shalunov, 24, had 37 points in 49 KHL contests. So unless he pulls a Soderberg or a Lehtera (finally comes over to the NHL in their late 20s), Shalunov’s NHL future is pretty much nil.

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Those who joined Dobbernomics – don’t forget to use your trades and set your lineups!

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Elias notes that when teams are tied 1-1 in a best-of-seven series, the winner of Game 3 owns an all-time series record of 204-99 (67.3%).

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Talent. Here McJesus pivots so suddenly that Vatanen had to go back to the blue line to pick up his jock strap after the goal:

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The 2017-18 products are now up in the shop for pre-sale! The Fantasy Prospects Report is out on June 1 and the Fantasy Hockey Guide (my 12th) is out August 1. Some notes on this:

1. Tax is now charged based on your location. Meaning for the first time, US/International/Alberta readers save $$. Previously they had to pay 13% HST. Now every province pays their own tax rate, and International readers pay nothing for tax. First time ever – I have a new accountant who sees things differently. Great news for at least half of you!

2. USD$ currency is now at $1.37 Canadian. I can't help this, but what I'm able to do is – for pre-sale only – offer a 5% coupon for the Keeper League Fantasy Pack. Coupon Code for the KLFP is: win1

This is only for the month of May (i.e. only for pre-orders). But I feel this will take a bit of the sting out of the nasty exchange rate. I try to keep my pricing based on a $1.20 – $1.25 exchange rate and it's been higher than that for a couple of years now and I have no idea how this will bounce in the coming months.

3. If you've never tried out the Fantasy Hockey Geek Draft Kit, now is a great time to order it – just $5 via our DraftKings deal – basically if you buy my Guide (or one of the packs) and deposit $5 into DraftKings, they'll buy your Geek Draft Kit ($15.99 value)

Details for all of these things are in the shop here

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Update: Some notes from out of Russia:

– SKA acquired the rights to Nikita Nesterov and Nail Yakupov. My thinking is that both will return there. Yakupov is an RFA this summer.

– Philip Larsen has signed a two-year deal with Salavat. So that failed experiment has officially been completed.

– The Sabres hope they have signed their own Nikita-Ziatsev-type. Viktor Antipin is a 24-year-old undrafted defenseman who, per reporter Igor Eronko, just terminated his contract with Metallurg to sign with Buffalo. Antipin, 5-11 and 180, had 24 points in 59 games last season. At glance – he's no Ziatsev.