There are always some surprises on draft day, whether it’s being certain players rising or falling. It may not have been very busy from a trade angle, but that doesn’t mean teams weren’t busy trying to improve their rosters.

I always tell people that I am not, in particular, a prospect person. There are roughly 1000 players to keep track of fantasy-wise at the NHL level (including existing prospects). For that reason, I lean on people whose work I respect in this regard. Not to be a total homer, but Dobber Prospects did a wonderful job with their coverage yesterday, so check out some of the picks over there. For those with ESPN subscriptions, Corey Pronman does a great job as well. I recommend those two sources for your prospect information. They’re who I use.

****

Arizona made a splash in the trade market on Friday, to say the least. They needed to add some pieces, and they certainly did that getting their number one centre in Derek Stepan, their number one goalie in Antti Raanta, and a huge bolstering presence to their blue line in Niklas Hjalmarsson.

You can read Dobber's take on the Stepan/Raanta trade here, and Neil Parker's on Hjalmarsson here.

I will only briefly touch on Hjalmarsson. He has played seven 82-game seasons and has career highs with five goals, and has cracked 25 points twice, having never cracked 30.

The importance of Hjalmarsson is two-fold. First, like Neil mentioned, it could allow a Hjalmarsson-Ekman-Larsson pairing that can shelter their younger defencemen. It also gives them a true defensive defenceman.  A lot of people think of bruising players to be the defensive defencemen, when it’s guys like Hjalmarsson who really fit the bill. He limits shots, zone entries, and dangerous plays with regularity. That can only help a team that was that was abysmal in this regard last year. Of anyone, this helps their goaltending, specifically Raanta, the most.

Speaking of Raanta, he should be given the reigns in net. The team should improve and be passable defensively in front of him. I have high hopes for him, but the Coyotes have a long way to go. I wouldn’t overvalue him just yet. A season like Frederik Andersen had last year would be a good year for Raanta this season, fantasy-wise. That would put him as roughly a top-24 goalie fantasy-wise, or startable in two-goalie, 12-team leagues.

I don’t suspect there’ll be much change in Stepan’s fantasy value. He should be a heavily-used first-line centre, and have talented wingers to play with. I am excited to see what Stepan and Max Domi can do together, especially if they’re given an extended look. I am expecting more of the same from the new Arizona centre.

More than anything, these trades indicate the Coyotes are done being a doormat in the West. With a couple of important veterans added, and progression from their bevy of young talent, this should be a much-improved team come October. Not a playoff team yet, but maybe just a year away.

****

One big potential free agent was locked up on Friday when TJ Oshie signed an eight-year contract with an average annual value of $5.75 million. He will be 31 years old in December.

This kind of signing always makes me laugh. It’s fair to say that Oshie is a player who is valued for his offensive prowess, right? Well, over the last three years, he has one more five-on-five point than Jordan Eberle, and two more five-on-five goals. Eberle was traded earlier this week in a salary dump; Oshie was given a contract valued at $46 million. It’s amazing what a crazy shooting percentage season at the right time – Oshie shot 23.1 percent last year after averaging 12.2 percent for his career – will do for a player’s wallet.

Oshie returning keeps most of last year’s forwards together (for now). It appears inevitable that Justin Williams finds a new home, but the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Oshie was one of the best in the league. It’s far from certain they’ll all be back on a line together, but the continuity is a nice security blanket for the coaching staff.

There is going to be a goal-scoring regression here. Assuming he plays all 82 games, shoots his previous career average, and lands about 2.1 shots per game on goal, that’s about a 25-goal season. He won’t fall off the map given his line mates and power-play unit, but a repeat 30-goal season would be the upper limit for a reasonable expectation.

With the season he had, and the team he’s returning to, I imagine he gets over-drafted. I would not take him in the top-50 of a standard roto draft. He just doesn’t stuff peripheral stats, and even if he plays a full year, might not see much increase in raw production. Let someone else take him in the fourth round of a 12-team league.

****

There was one big trade at the draft involving at least one actual NHLer, with Brayden Schenn being shipped to the St. Louis Blues with two first round picks going back to Philadelphia, along with Jori Lehtera.

This has to be a move made with the intention of using Schenn as a centre. The team has one thing in abundance, and it’s capable wingers, particularly in the top six. Adding Schenn to the fold likely means he and Paul Stastny are the top two centre options.

I am interested to see who slots where. Playing with Vladimir Tarasenko at five-on-five is obviously where fantasy owners would want Schenn to play. However, it’s the power-play unit that will make or break his fantasy value. Nearly 44 percent of his points over the last two seasons (114) came with the man advantage (50), and over half of his goals. He has rarely been a solid producer at five-on-five. We’ll have to wait and see how the team decides to use him.

****

When the tweet from Elliotte Friedman went out that something like Saad-Panarin was about to occur, I found myself wondering why. It appears that the Chicago leadership had something to do with it

Belief is Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane let it be known to #Hawks how much they missed Saad. They loved him.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) June 23, 2017

Regardless of what the reason was, Artemi Panarin is now in Columbus, and Brandon Saad is back in Chicago.

At face value, and judging by some of the messages, emails, and texts I received, this could be confusing to some people. Why would Chicago trade a player with 151 points in 162 games, having just signed him seven months ago for a player with a career high of 53 points?

I think it’s time we delved into some of Saad’s numbers from the last three years, his tenure in Columbus:

• A total of 58 five-on-five goals scored, tied for eighth in the NHL, and more than Joe Pavelski, Nikita Kucherov, and Tyler Seguin, who had 56 each. That total of 58 is the same total as John Tavares, and two fewer than Sidney Crosby.
• Those 58 goals weren’t the result of a crazy scoring binge, either: he was outside the top 25 percent of forwards (minimum 2000 minutes played) in five-on-five shooting percentage. It wasn’t a result of a ridiculous single season, either, as he scored either 19 or 20 goals in each of those three years.
• A total of 116 five-on-five points scored, tied for 15^th in the NHL with Filip Forsberg, and more than Johnny Gaudreau (115), Matt Duchene (110), and Brad Marchand (110).
• His goals per 60 minutes rate over those campaigns is 1.06, 10^th out of 261 forwards with at least 2000 minutes played, and higher than Crosby (1.04) and Ovechkin (1.03).
• His points per 60 minutes rate over those campaigns is 2.12, tied for 19^th out of those 261 forwards with Mark Stone. It is a mark higher than Filip Forsberg (2.10), Backstrom (2.08), and the newly-signed Oshie (2.07).

I hope readers get the point here. This is a player turning 25 years old in October putting himself in the conversation with the elite goal and point producers in the NHL.

The problem is simple: power-play ice time. He has 21 power-play points over his three years in Columbus. Not an average in each season. Total. Combined. For all three years. Sam Gagner had 18 power-play points last year alone.

This is where usage affects perception. Over the two years Panarin has been in the league, Saad’s goals and point rates per minute are higher, but overall production is considerably lower. That will happen when you play nearly two full minutes fewer per game, and don’t get premium power-play minutes. With the correct PP usage, Saad can be a perennial 30-goal, 60-point player. Without that, it will be hard for him to reach his potential. We’ll see how he’s used now that he’s back in Chicago.

For Neil slant on this, check it out here.

****

Like most people, my heart sank when the news came out that Kevin Fiala had suffered a fractured femur. I know that the severity of fractures/breaks vary, but we’ve seen players miss a full year with similar injuries. After hitting his stride this year, particularly in the playoffs, hopes were high for him.

Some good news came on Friday:

Just two months after his injury, #Preds @KevinFiala22 is back on the ice. https://t.co/urneuyoRE6

— Nashville Predators (@PredsNHL) June 23, 2017

We’ll see how he progresses over the summer, but him skating before Canada Day gives me a lot of optimism for next year. With James Neal gone, he seems almost assured a top-6 role next year. He’s still on my watch list for 2017-18.