The Ottawa Senators avoided arbitration with Jean-Gabriel Pageau by signing him to a three-year deal with an average annual value of $3.1 million. That is a significant jump for the 24-year-old, who had never managed an AAV of at least $1 million in either of his first two contracts. He is now signed through his Age 27 season.

Pageau had 12 goals and 33 points in 2016-17, coming off a 19-goal, 43-point season in 2015-16.

This is a fine signing for the team, given that in the short-term he won’t have to be more than a third-line centre, barring injuries. His skills are suited for that role.

Cap league owners with Pageau on their rosters should have been prepared for this kind of raise, so it’s a matter of whether your roster can handle that kind of increase. A $3.1 million AAV for a centre capable of about 15 goals and 35-ish points is about par for the course (think of Erik Haula). The value could come in future years for Pageau cap league owners, as Kyle Turris has one year left on his contract. If he doesn’t come back, it’s possible Pageau is in a top-six role a year from now.

****

The NHL off-season is inevitably a time of year when we get a handful of players retiring from the NHL. Some guys like Kevin Klein decide to go play elsewhere, some take positions with a team or the league. Brian Campbell, the 17-year veteran of the NHL, announced his retirement on Monday morning to join the Chicago Blackhawks’ front office:

Here's the release from #Blackhawks on Brian Campbell's retirement & decision to join Hawks business operations dept. pic.twitter.com/Qcl0AEYe7X

— Brian Hedger (@BrianHedger) July 17, 2017

The 38-year-old defenceman seemingly couldn’t get another contract, or at least one to his liking. While not the offensive force he had been earlier in his career, some of his defensive numbers still held up well over the last couple of seasons, so it’s kind of a surprise that he couldn’t get a deal somewhere.

All the same, Campbell managed 40-point seasons with three different teams since the 2005 lockout, and was part of the 2010 Stanley Cup team from Chicago. He was a reliable fantasy asset late in his career with the Sabres as well as chunks of his first stint with the Blackhawks. Best wishes to him in the next stage of his life.

****

Brandon Pirri appears to have signed with the ZSC Lions in Switzerland along with Klein. The writing was on the wall as he signed late in the off-season last year and couldn’t consistently stay in the lineup with the New York Rangers. Usually when a player’s career starts going that route in their mid-twenties, they’re not long for the NHL.

I always find these departures kind of curious. It’s not as if Pirri as an over-the-hill player in a huge decline; he turned 26 years old in April. Also, his goal scoring rate over the last three years compares favourably to other players who were given second chances and are on the other side of 30 years old in Michael Cammalleri and Benoit Pouliot. In a league where goals are hard to come by, someone could probably have used his skill set. This seems to be a player who could slot into a team’s bottom-six in a sheltered role and provide some offensive punch. No, he’s not going to be a complete two-way forward who can be used in a shutdown role, but he can score, and that’s something to be coveted.

Fantasy owner who rostered him in 2014-15, when he managed 22 goals and two assists, will probably keep a soft spot for him. Those in dynasties can go ahead and cut him, and wonder what could have been had he been given a real opportunity for a couple of seasons.

**** 

Throughout the summer, I’m going through each team one at a time, in alphabetical order, to discuss the relevant (or interesting) fantasy performances from last year, and what that could mean for this year. Next on the list is the New York Rangers.

Chris Kreider

This was the season that fantasy owners, and Kreider believers, had been waiting years for. He had been productive, but never really had a full breakout. While 28 goals, 53 points, and 13 power-play points isn’t quite the full-fledged breakout, it was his best offensive season to date, and a promise of what could be to come.

First and foremost, he was finally given consistent top-six minutes (often on the top line), finishing with a career-high 17 minutes per game. I don’t think he improves much on that next year, however; under Alain Vigneault’s stewardship, no Rangers forward has cracked 19 minutes a game in any of the last four seasons. The only forward to crack 18 minutes a game in each of the last two seasons is Mats Zuccarello. Maybe Kreider can add a half-minute or thereabouts to his average time on ice, but it won’t be the significant jump that we saw between 2015-16 and 2016-17. He should be among the most-used forwards again for the Rangers next year at even strength, it’s just that the ice time is very spread out.

Another good sign is that though he shot a career-high 15.1 percent at all strengths, he averaged 12.4 percent over the three previous seasons. Even if that percentage does come down a bit, he can still post 25-30 goals. He did average 8.2 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five, higher than his previous three-year average of 7.82. While the 28 goals were the result of a small spike in shooting percentage, he was shooting more, and playing 80 games should help stabilize these totals.

The improvement to the blue line should help everyone, and Kreider is finally realizing his fantasy potential as a player. Solid peripherals and another 25-goal, 50-point season should have him as a borderline top-50 fantasy forward in roto leagues again next year.

Mats Zuccarello

It’s hard to complain about a 59-point season as a fantasy owner (relatively speaking, of course), but it’s hard not to wonder what the season could have been like for Zuccarello had he not shot a career-low 7.9 percent. He managed a career-high in shots per game, and total shots on goal, while averaging a career-high 18:50 per contest. Had he shot his three-year average from 2013-16, he would have scored about eight more goals, and even with weak peripherals, would have probably been a top-40 roto forward.

It was a stunning crater in shot conversion, too. Over his previous four seasons, Zuccarello had never shot below 11.6 percent at five-on-five, but managed just 5.6 percent in the 2016-17 campaign. Below are his five-on-five shot charts from 2014-15 and 2016-17, via Hockey Viz, the former in which he shot an even 12 percent:

The two aren’t very dissimilar. This is a guy who gets a lot of shots from in tight, but he just couldn’t find the back of the net with his usual consistency at five-on-five. His shot rate helped his totals from being even worse, which is some consolation.

At this point, he’s the most reliable winger the team has (at least by usage), and we know we can expect roughly 60 points from him. Without an increase in peripherals, he’ll never be a true roto fantasy stud, but his consistency in point production makes him a clear target in points-only leagues. There is value in consistency, and Zuccarello has that in spades.

Mika Zibanejad

It’s hard not to imagine what the season would have been like had Zibanejad been able to stay healthy. After back-to-back seasons with at least 80 games played, the 24-year-old Swede managed just 56 games due to a broken fibula. More to that point was that he had 15 points through 19 games when the injury occurred, and his points per game dropped from 0.79 up until the injury to 0.59 in the 37 games he played upon his return.

Nothing was out of line for Zibanejad going from the Senators to the Rangers as far as production and shots at five-on-five were concerned. His points (1.80 compared to 1.76 per 60 minutes) were about the same while his shots fell but not by a margin that is a huge red flag (7.41 to 6.73). He was basically the guy he had shown himself to be over his final couple of seasons in Ottawa; with about 17 minutes a game, we could get 20 goals and 50 points from him.

The big question is how much more ice time he will be given next year. The trade of Derek Stepan to the Coyotes means that assuming Zibanejad is signed (it is worth noting he’s still a restricted free agent right now, though I can’t imagine he’s not a Ranger for years to come), he will be the top centre for the team. Over the last two years on aggregate, Stepan averaged over 18 minutes a game, including a role on the penalty kill. Zibanejad can penalty kill, but hopefully the extra minutes given aren’t solely on the PK. Even an extra minute between EV/PP time could mean 55-60 points for Zibanejad rather than 50-55.

Pavel Buchnevich

There were other notable fantasy performances that warrant discussion at some point – J.T. Miller’s 56 points, Michael Grabner’s 27 goals – but Buchnevich is one that should be discussed now.

It was a tough first season for the Russian winger, if only because he was productive in the time he was given, but had to deal with a back injury for a good chunk of it. Finishing with 20 points in 41 games is a fine rookie season, but it’s more impressive when you see that of all forwards with at least 400 five-on-five minutes last year, Buchnevich led the team with 2.13 points per 60 minutes.

After recovering from the injury, he was often a healthy scratch or playing in the AHL, which makes the season all the more frustrating. In a full year, he could have been a viable fantasy asset. Instead, he was an afterthought. It’s a fine line at the NHL level.

In general, I wasn’t a believer in Buchnevich fantasy-wise going into 2016-17 if only because of the glut of wingers the team had. While that kind of showed itself to be true, there was no denying his talent. He may not be higher than a third-line role this year, but he should be tantalizing in deeper formats. All it takes is an injury or a trade (ahem, Rick Nash) for this guy to break out.