Ramblings: Kings check in, Ryan Spooner, Jets goalies and Johnny Oduya (July 25)
Neil Parker
2017-07-25
While the remaining class of unrestricted free agents isn't the be-all, end-all indication of the NHL trend of teams moving to younger and younger rosters, it certainly is telling.
Of the 38 UFAs that played at least 40 games in the NHL last season only seven are under 30. Those seven: Dwight King, Alex Chiasson, Cody Franson, Ryan White, Joseph Cramarossa, Jimmy Hayes and Jyrki Jokipakka.
It's a pretty telling indication of the youth movement of the NHL, and it shouldn't be ignored in fantasy circles, especially in keeper/dynasty settings. As serviceable assets move closer towards their age-30 campaigns, it's time to consider flipping or exposing them.
Another sign is that both Pittsburgh and Nashville utilized a number of young players in their lower lines, as opposed to veterans. The injection of youth was huge for both teams, and in a copy-cat league, it wouldn't be surprising to see more teams use a similar approach moving forward.
Speed and cheap salaries will continue this tend.
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The Ryan Spooner-Bruins contract situation is getting a little dicey. He's already been the subject of trade rumors and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. Now the two sides are almost $2 million apart in contract numbers entering arbitration.
Spooner took a sizeable step back last season with just 11 goals and 39 points through 78 games, but he was still an excellent power-play producer (19 points with the man advantage). The decline is clearly attributed to his plummeted five-on-five numbers, as Spooner dipped from 2.01 points per 60 minutes in 2015-16 to a 1.29 mark last season.
Looking ahead, Spooner's fantasy value is clearly capped with Boston. Outside of a ripe role on the power play, he hasn't been able to carve out a scoring gig at even strength and the five-on-five scoring decline is discouraging.
There's potential that Spooner could benefit from a change of scenery, but if he couldn't lock down a top-six role with the winger-starved Bruins, where would he fit as a scorer?
Additionally, now 25, Spooner's in the heart of his prime. His best offensive years might be wasted without a prominent role.
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Johnny Oduya inked a one-year, $1 million contract with Ottawa on Monday. It's a low-risk move for the Senators, but it's also a signing with absolutely no upside. Last season, Oduya's three most frequent defense partners were Stephen Johns, Jordie Benn and Brent Seabrook, and all three posted a significantly better Corsi For percentage without Oduya. Johns, in particular, was 5.2 points better.
The fantasy wrinkles here involve Ottawa's young defensemen that will now have another obstacle in front of their playing time. The Senators now Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf, Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman and Oduya on the roster, so Fredrik Claesson, Ben Harpur, and most importantly, Thomas Chabot are potentially all that much further removed from a meaningful gig.
Chabot is unlikely to be impacted if he proves ready to make the jump to the highest level for good. Oduya's still not an encouraging addition, though.
Finally, as highlighted, Oduya is a clear possession drain. His presence in the lineup isn't helpful to the team. It's not a crippler, and it might not have a significant impact on the goaltending, but it's not a positive, either.
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Connor Hellebuyck inked a one-year, $2.25 million contract Monday to avoid arbitration. The young goalie is going to be an interesting fantasy asset this season because of the addition of Steve Mason during the offseason.
Both Mason and Hellebuyck are coming off down years, but are also just a season removed from excellent showings. The Jets are poised for a big year with a roster filled with talent. Solid goaltending will go a long way to helping Winnipeg return to the postseason.
Instead of guessing who is going to receive more starts, which is likely Mason, this has the makings of a goalie tandem to grab both shares of. It could turn into a close timeshare because Hellebuyck's development is still important. He's a solid talent and just needs to eliminate allowing weak goals to take a big step forward. The duo should be available well into drafts and complement a high-end No. 1 starter.
Better yet, Mason and Hellebuyck could combine to provide No. 2 goalie production as your third and fourth netminders.
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With no disrespect to Mike Cammalleri, the main fantasy assets of interest up front from the Kings are Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli and Tanner Pearson. Here are a few quick-hit notes on each.
Kopitar is a ripe bounce-back candidate after posting the worst offensive season in his career, which included an unsustainably low 8.0 shooting percentage (also a career-worst mark). Even with just modest improvement to his shooting percentage, Kopitar should approach 20 goals again. His huge role and gig on the No. 1 power-play unit also provide a high fantasy floor. However, he's clinging to the final years of his offensive prime and enters his age-30 campaign, so expectations should still be kept in check. A 60-point showing is still a serviceable return in the majority of settings.
Carter is one of just 10 players to record at least 20 goals, 50 points and 200 shots in each of the past four seasons, and while his fantasy ceiling isn't that high, his consistency and floor shouldn't be ignored. Additionally, he's coming off his best season (32 goals and 66 points) since his final year with Philadelphia in 2010-11. Carter still skates well enough to continue moving the offensive needle moving forward because he also boasts the size and scoring ability to produce. In settings where he owns winger eligibility, Carter receives a nice fantasy boost, too.
It was definitely a disappointing season for Toffoli in 2016-17, as the notoriously streaky scorer never hit a groove. His year was interrupted by an 19-game absence due to a lower-body injury, and Toffoli finished with just 16 goals and 34 points through 63 games. There were some encouraging signs, though. He averaged 2.62 shots per game and averaged a career-high 2:17 of power-play time per game. Additionally, like Kopitar, Toffoli was a victim of a declined shooting percentage. After posting a 12.3 mark over the previous three years, Toffoli's shooting percentage dipped to 9.7 last year. In the heart of his prime entering his age-25 campaign, a big rebound is well within reach.
Pearson is an intelligent player coming off a career year (24 goals and 44 points). He's an excellent complement to both scorers and playmakers and is also just entering his offensive prime. The winger averaged 2:24 of power-play time per game last season, so with a scoring role locked up, another step forward isn't out of the question. Pearson is a sound late-round target that might not carry much fanfare in most circles.
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Over the next four seasons, the Islanders will be paying $35.65 million to Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, and Adam Pelech.
— Adam Herman (@AdamZHerman) July 24, 2017
Seems like a good way to make sure you've got enough money to woo John Tavares and keep him around long term.
Thanks for stopping by, Dobberheads.
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Who is a better own for next year? Carter or Guentzel?
Scoring Cats: G (3) A (2) PPP (1.5) +/- (1/-1)
I’d take Guentzel. I think he’s 50 pts floor with 70pts the upside playing a full season along side either Crosby or Malkin.
We know what Carter is. If you’re risk averse Carter is the choice but I’ll take the lottery ticket of Guentzel myself.