21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Mario Prata

2020-02-16

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles – the original 20 Fantasy Thoughts – from our editors at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s ‘Daily Ramblings’.

Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, Dobber

 

1. All I'll say is that I completely agree with Dobber on his take with Jason Zucker (Dobber's thoughts on the Zucker trade  here).  He becomes a high-end option immediately if he can find prolonged chemistry with Sidney Crosby. He's shown the ability to put up a hit per game when he's playing 17-18 minutes a night, which makes him even more valuable in banger leagues. I mean, what if he just takes Jake Guentzel's minutes, both at 5-on-5 and the power play, and plays 19-20 a night? He still has to click with Crosby, but if he does, he's going to have a huge final two months. (feb11)

 

2. You could argue that the Penguins gave up too much for Zucker, but this is a team that has to live in the here and now while Crosby and  Evgeni Malkin are still productive. Plus the asking price for such a player will only increase as the trade deadline gets closer, so you can’t fault GM Jim Rutherford for getting an early start on the deadline-day craziness (or is that just a lot of hype now?) (feb14)

 

3. The Coyotes are 3-4-3 in their last 10 games and find themselves battling for a playoff spot. It will be extremely interesting to see what the club does with  Taylor Hall. I have a feeling they'll do all they can to get him to agree to an extension over the next few weeks. But if the product on the ice doesn't match up, you'd have to believe they'll dangle him out for another trade.

We can't put this on Hall though. Since being traded to AZ, he has 21 points in 26 games while averaging three shots per contest. If they do decide to keep him and still miss the playoffs, at least the chances of them jumping up and winning the lottery are exponentially higher. (feb12)

 

4. It was a couple years ago I got into an argument with Dobber. My argument was that Kailer Yamamoto (and also  Jesse Puljujarvi) were, at the time, the Oilers’ two best right wingers, and that both should be playing in the top-6. Dobber, on the other hand, believed that at best Pulju could play a middle-six role while Yamamoto was a couple years away. I’m not sure either of us can definitively claim anything about Pulju, but clearly Dobber was right about Yamo. Sometimes I just get too excited for my own good.

Anyway, Yamo has shown out since being recalled and slotting on the second line (well, I guess top line now with  Connor McDavid‘s injury), posting eight goals and 17 points in 17 games. Now, it should be noted that he’s shooting 27.6 percent overall, a number too high to sustain itself. Regardless, with McDavid’ injury, he should get more ice time and that means being able to sustain production levels simply through increased TOI.

Yamamoto also needs to pick up his individual shot totals, and he has started doing that in recent games. All the same, the guy that I’ve been waiting for years to get to Edmonton’s top-6 is finally here, and he’s showing out. Good for him and good for their fans (and good for his disciplined fantasy owners). (feb14)

 

5. In his first game on an AHL conditioning stint on Friday, Micheal Ferland suffered another setback. Ferland left the game due to concussion-like symptoms. At this point, I wouldn’t expect Ferland to return at all this season. In fact, Ferland’s career could be in serious jeopardy at this point, since the physical element is such an important part of his game. (feb15)

 

6. Another coach firing. This time, the axe fell on Bruce Boudreau as coach of the Wild, who replaced him with assistant Dean Evason. Mike Clifford filled you in on the  Fantasy Take.

I’m with Mike and a whole lot of others in that Boudreau wasn’t the problem in Minny. This was a team that went for it all back in 2012-13, when it inked both  Zach Parise and  Ryan Suter to mammoth long-term deals. Since then, the Wild have remained in the league’s “mushy middle” – not strong enough to be a Western Conference power, yet not weak or fortunate enough to benefit from a franchise player at the top of the draft.

Now they’re stuck with an aging core, which includes four players 30 or older signed for at least four more years after this one, and a group of young players that lacks a high-end gamebreaker (Kirill Kaprizov notwithstanding). Yet, BB managed to get his team to 7-3-1 in his last 11 games and still within striking distance of the last Western Conference playoff spot. This is probably about new GM Bill Guerin wanting to bring in his own guy, possibly long-time teammate Doug Weight. (feb15)

 

7. I’ll add that the first thing I usually watch for after a coaching change is the goaltending situation. The last eight games of Wild hockey during Boudreauès tenure were  Devan Dubnyk for two games, followed by  Alex Stalock for two games, then repeat.

I’ve received a question or two recently about whether it’s worth it to add Stalock, who has been better than Dubnyk this season. While Evason gets used to the head coaching job, I’d expect him to simply ride the hot hand, which is what Boudreau had been doing himself. So, I don’t think this changes much goaltending-wise, at least in the short term. That should make Stalock a decent option as a third goalie if you need one. (feb15)

 

8. Jordan Kyrou has 25 goals and 58 points in his last 63 AHL games spanning to last season. It’s pretty obvious that he doesn’t have much more to prove at that level. The problem he’s running into (aside from staying healthy) is that there’s a glut of wingers on the St. Louis roster.

Consider that  Jaden Schwartz David Perron Vladimir Tarasenko, and  Robert Thomas have locks on top-9 winger spots. That leaves two spots, and it’s clear the team values players with what I guess would be deemed “grit” like Sammy Blais, Oskar Sundqvist, and Zach Sanford. That fails to mention appearances from guys like MacKenzie MacEachern and  Alex Steen (who seems to be a third-line regular now), and it’s obvious Kyrou just doesn’t have a role with the team, at least not this year. That was the  Robby Fabbri Problem.

That doesn’t take away from Kyrou’s skill set in the slightest. As mentioned, he’s performed very well in the AHL as evidenced by his points and being over three shots per game this year. He has great speed and great offensive instincts. I think there’s still a true top-line scoring winger here, but it just doesn’t look like it’ll happen in St. Louis, at least not in the near-term. Even next year, everyone is still under contract, so things don’t look promising for 2020-21. Just don’t give up on him because St. Louis is too deep to give him a consistent role. (feb14)

 

9. Another day, another injury. Erik Karlsson will miss the rest of the regular season with a broken thumb that will require surgery. Karlsson’s season ends at 57 games, which means that this is the second consecutive season in which he has failed to reach 60 games.

Signed to a long-term deal by the Sharks this past offseason, Karlsson should be ready to go next season. However, I mentioned to anyone who would listen that I was leery about using a high pick on Karlsson entering the season, so I’d recommend at least a  Kris Letang-like discount if drafting him next season. I understand the thumb injury isn’t related to other ailments he’s had in the past, but this is a defenseman who appears to have a ton of mileage that has resulted from some major minutes throughout his career. (feb16)

 

10. Anyone who has read my writing for a few years knows I’m a big fan of  Artturi Lehkonen. At one point, I had hopes that he was the top-line, two-way winger of the future to complement  Brendan Gallagher‘s contributions.

The reason for that belief is that over Lehkonen’s first two seasons in the NHL, he was in the top half of the league’s  forwards in hits per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and the top third of the league in shots per 60 minutes. In that time, his  impacts both offensively and defensively, were well above average, the latter more than the former. (At the time we would have been using a different measurement of impact than the one linked, but the same idea pervades.) My reasoning was that if he performed so well in a lesser role, and could do so while still being responsible defensively, it would be a matter of time before he was a top-line winger getting 18 minutes a game with loads of PP time. Things, obviously, haven’t worked out that way.

Part of it is Claude Julien. He just doesn’t believe in giving his forwards heavy minutes. Entering Friday action, there were 327 forwards with at least 1000 minutes at 5-on-5 since the start of the 2018-19 season. Of those 327 forwards, 62 of them have played at least 14 minutes, and none of them are Habs. Gallagher has been getting less TOI per game than  Andreas Athanasiou, and Phillip Danault less than Alex Iafallo. It’s hard for a forward to have a big breakout season playing 15-16 minutes a night.

In that sense, I’m not sure a full breakout will ever come for Lehkonen. Not in the way I had imagined, anyway. Again, players just can’t be expected to put up monster fantasy seasons playing 15 minutes a night. But he’s certainly carved himself a spot in Montreal’s middle-six winger mix, and with his peripherals, he’ll have value for years to come. It’s just a matter of how much value. (feb13)

 

11. David Pastrnak has 42 goals on the year and has now passed 80 points for the third straight year. It's his first 40-goal season but surely not the last. (feb13)

 

12. Andre Bukovsky has been extremely streaky this season. He's gone through spells of 12 points in six games, nine points in five games, and seven points in five games. He's also gone on several three-game pointless streaks and a season-high six gamer that occurred during a spell of two points in 13.

Despite the inconsistencies, the recently-turned 25-year-old has bested his career-high in goals (now 18) and set a new high for points (42) and power-play points (10). That last metric is especially promising considering Burakovsky has seen just a whisper below 90 seconds of power-play time in the last 10 weeks.

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It's unlikely that he can carve out a full-time gig on the first unit in Colorado, but if he can continue to be a 50-points-plus even-strength producer, then he'll have a home on fantasy rosters. The trick is to get him while he's hot. (feb12)

 

13. Evgeny Kuznetsov is day-to-day with a UBI. He's been reduced to the second line and second power-play unit for some time now and unsurprisingly, his metrics have fallen off a bit. This despite him shooting about six percentage points above his career norm. Not ideal.

I'm sure many people will view this summer as a nice opportunity to buy low on Kuzya. He'll likely finish with less than 70 points for just the second time in five seasons and that will naturally lower his perceived value. Couple that with his chemistry with the burgeoning  Jakub Vrana and it will be easy to peg him for a rebound.

Adding fuel to that fire is that  Nicklas Backstrom isn't getting any younger. He continues to rage against the dawning of the light, but Father Time remains undefeated. However, I see Backstrom's game continuing to age gracefully. His production is predicated on precision rather than speed and force. He thinks the game ahead of most and that trait does not disappear easily.

As such, I see the team continuing to use Backstrom with  Alex Ovechkin in all-situations for the foreseeable future. That leaves Kuznetsov battling with Vrana for the last spot on PP1. Kuz can be the QB on the second-unit. Vrana can't. Seems to me that the 65-70 point pace is likely where Kuznetsov lives for the remainder of his 20's. (feb12)

 

14. Mathew Barzal hasn't taken off the way many expected when he waltzed into the league and put up 85 points en route to a Calder Trophy.

The power-play production is the main cause of this. He had 27 PPPs that first season when the Isles had the sixth-best unit in the league. Last year that dipped to 18 PPPs when the team's effectiveness on the man-advantage nearly split in half, falling all the way to 26th.

This year, he has just nine through 57 games – about a 13 PPP pace. The Islanders are back in the middle of the pack for conversion rate, but Barzal's PPTOI is all the way down to 2:21 per game – nearly a full minute below his rookie deployment. Personally, I hate owning Islanders players because they so often play a stingy style, but you'd think Barzal would be someone immune to that. Maybe in year four. (feb12)

 

15. When discussing the Canucks, the conversation naturally gravitates to either  Elias Pettersson or Quinn Hughes; at least when discussing the top players. But can we take a minute to appreciate what  Bo Horvat is doing?

Horvat is on pace for a career-high 65 points. If he maintains anywhere close to, or exceeding, this current pace, he would put up his fifth straight year of an increasing points-per-game rate. He’s done that, mind you, while largely playing with none of Pettersson,  Brock Boeser, or  J.T. Miller. In fact, he has more minutes at 5-on-5 with  Tanner Pearson Loui Eriksson Josh Leivo, and/or  Jake Virtanen than he does with any of the Big Three on the other top line. Horvat is being asked to carry third/fourth liners and he’s done so admirably. (More analysis on Horvat by following the link…) (feb11)

 

16. How about the season Neal Pionk is having? I still have concerns about his defensive effectiveness at 5-on-5, but fantasy-wise, the guy has been a monster.

Even without the significant PP role, there would still be enough shots and hits to make for a valuable fantasy defenseman; if it were  Josh Morrissey on the top PP unit, Pionk would still be capable of something close to  Jake Muzzin‘s 2018-19 season, and he was around a top-20 fantasy defenseman in banger leagues. Pionk has been good.

That’s basically why, if I were a Pionk owner in keeper/dynasty leagues, I would be holding on to him. Let’s say that next year, Ville Heinola is given the top PP role. If Pionk can maintain close to his hits/shots rates from this year, he’ll still be a valuable fantasy defenseman. If no one takes the PP role from him, being a top-10 fantasy option on the blue line is well within reach for him (as he’s been this year.)

Again, I still have concerns here, but the Jets have a depleted blue line which means his role should be fairly safe. It’s nice to see him bouncing back well after the debacle in New York. (feb11)

 

17. I wish I knew what was going on with  Alex DeBrincat. To me, he has elite upside and in keeper leagues is a definite buy-low. But I don’t understand why his production has been so terrible. Just 21 points in his last 39 games, and he’s a minus-16 in that span. (feb10)

 

18. Ryan Graves continues to ride the  Cale Makar train, and in fact is settling in a lot more comfortably. He had been a favorite of mine a few years ago, ranking rather high on my Fantasy Prospects list for defensemen. He ranked as high as 14th in January of 2017. But that’s where he peaked and he had slipped steadily after that as his AHL numbers fell and he was traded to Colorado, only to continue seeing the numbers fall.

Partnering up with a superstar can really help a guy out, though. Besides his gaudy plus-41 rating which leads the entire NHL (second place are Artemi Panarin and  Dougie Hamilton at plus-30 – what a gap), Graves also has 21 points in his last 42 games. He has 91 BLKS in that span, too. He’s 6-5, 220 pounds and I really think he has found a home playing with Makar. This partnership is going to last several years, making Graves a very real fantasy asset. His contract this summer will be very interesting. (feb10)

 

19. Igor Shesterkin's numbers now sit at 6-1-0, 2.18 and 0.941 with five QS. Yes, I think next year he is a 55-game starter.  Henrik Lundqvist will be the backup and mentor and I think  Alexandar Georgiev gets traded if Lundqvist doesn’t do something surprising such as retire this summer with a year left on his contract. Lundqvist turns 38 in three weeks. But mark my words: Shesterkin is their guy.  (His fantasy prospect profile is here) (feb10)

 

20. Prospect goaltender Jonas Johansson, who I’ve been pretty high on this year, was recalled by the Sabres (as I’m sure you know by now) last week.  Linus Ullmark is out for three or four weeks and  Carter Hutton has been inconsistent all season (to put it politely).

I’m very interested in the goaltending situation with Buffalo for keeper leagues because the team is eventually going to be great for a long time. I know you don’t believe that, but I say this because any team with a superstar forward and a superstar defenseman is going to eventually be a playoff team. Eichel is now a superstar, while  Rasmus Dahlin is another year or two away from being that superstar defenseman. So when Buffalo starts piling up the W’s, who will be their goalie? My guess in the summer was Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. But UPL has had a rough start to his pro career, while Johansson has been amazing with a 0.925 SV% in 20 AHL games.

Ullmark has been solid, but to me his numbers look, long-term, like those of a very good backup in the NHL. Hutton has been terrible ever since he suckered the Sabres to pay him big based on one strong 32-game season for St. Louis. I don’t see either of them as options. So, to me, it’s between UPL, who needs time, and Johansson who is actually close to being NHL-ready. Right now, in my mind, Johansson is the best bet. But let’s see if the Sabres buy out Hutton this summer and then sign a guy like  Braden Holtby or  Jacob Markstrom (Johansson fantasy prospect profile here) (feb10)

 

21. Hidden, buried, deep inside Detroit's offensive dry spell is a solid goaltending performance.  Jonathan Bernier's season-long numbers are below average, but he's been a worthwhile fantasy goalie since December 12. Coach Jeff Blashill is forcing a strong defensive system on his young roster and they’re still learning it. They’re learning how to kick in some offense while still being defensively responsible, and as you can see – it’s not coming along very quickly. Perhaps a player like Alexis Lafreniere injects enough talent to change this style next year, but if not then this will be the team where offense dies next year. It’s an alarming trend and I call it “The Nashville”. (feb10)

 

Have a good week, folks!!

 

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