Ramblings: Olofsson, Niku, Lightning Vets Sign; Seguin Sidelined; Coyotes Bail on Controversial Pick (Oct 30)

Ian Gooding

2020-10-30

Now that the NHL postseason, draft, and the thick of free agency have all come and gone, are you looking for something to fill the hockey void? You won't have to wait much longer. The 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide will be available today! Tons of articles as well as projections, both team-by-team and on a spreadsheet, all aimed toward making your upcoming fantasy season a successful one. To make sure you don't miss out, order it here.

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Wasn't he already the head coach?

Before you respond "well, actually, he was the 'interim' head coach," yes, I know that. And I also noticed the "Bones is BACK" at the top. Even if the Stars decided not to bring him back (which would be even weirder, but not outside the realm of possibilities), he should have still already been the 24th head coach in franchise history. But if interim head coaches aren't among official head coaches, then I guess leading a team to the Stanley Cup Final isn't enough to put you on that team's list of official head coaches. I probably spent more time than I should discussing this.

I should also mention that it is nice to see Bowness being retained as the full-time head coach, and he has certainly earned it. Those who were pulling for the Stars to win the Stanley Cup often cited Bowness as a key reason, as he is by many accounts a great person who has paid his dues.

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One other little Stars-related tidbit. We knew that Tyler Seguin was dealing with multiple injuries during the postseason. However, his surgery for repairing a torn labrum has been delayed until likely next week. This surgery usually requires around a four-month recovery, which would put his return to action at around March 1. Obviously we don't know when the season will start, but Seguin could be looking at missing the first month or two of the 2020-21 season. Move him down your draft rankings – I know I will.

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The Sabres have signed winger Victor Olofsson to a two-year contract with a $3.05 million cap hit, avoiding arbitration. Among rookies who played at least 50 games, Olofsson finished third in production with 0.78 PTS/GP (only Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes were more productive). It's possible that Olofsson loses value with the addition of Taylor Hall, particularly if he moves off the top line or first-unit power play. Should the Sabres' top line consist of Hall, Jack Eichel, and Sam Reinhart, then a second line of Olofsson, Eric Staal, and Jeff Skinner won't be a terrible option for the parties involved.

Fantasy Take: Hall Picks… Buffalo?

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The Stanley Cup champion Lightning were able to bring back two of their complementary veterans from 2019-20. Luke Schenn signed for a one-year contract worth $800,000, while Pat Maroon signed for a two-year contract worth a total of $1.8 million. In 2019-20, Schenn failed to reach 100 hits for the first time in his 12-season NHL career, although he played in just 25 games. Meanwhile, Big Rig Maroon has reached 100 hits for seven consecutive seasons.

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The Jets have signed prospect defenseman Sami Niku to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $725,000. After strong AHL production (80 points in 114 games), Niku has a shot to make the Jets full-time in 2020-21. However, the offseason additions of Luca Sbisa and Derek Forbort to one-way contracts could make it a little harder than it might seem. If you don't believe me, read Murat Ates' column at The Athletic, where he suggests that this might happen and that Niku would be a potential trade piece. If the Jets are actually going to play Sbisa over Niku, then his keeper league owners will want him moved ASAP to another organization.

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Kirby Dach was a late add to Canada's world junior camp roster, announced on Thursday. Whether Dach will play in the World Juniors will depend on when the NHL returns. An NHL return of January 1 would mean that Dach returns to the Blackhawks, but there's a very real chance that the NHL season will start later than that, which would bolster what looks like an already strong Canadian roster.

Alexis Lafreniere was not on the roster as he will try to earn a spot on the Rangers, but there's also a very real chance that he could play for Canada as well.

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I honestly didn't think this would happen, but the Coyotes have decided to renounce the rights to fourth-round pick Mitchell Miller (Dobber Prospects profile). By now, you're probably familiar with the azcentral story about Miller, who bullied a Black schoolmate with developmental disabilities while the two were in high school. The story was horrifying and infuriating to read, as Miller and a friend acted in an overtly racist and ableist manner while assaulting Isaiah Meyer-Crothers, the victim. Miller appears to have met the legal requirements of his punishment, yet many questions remain about why the Coyotes made this selection in the first place when many other teams reportedly had him on their "do not draft" list.

There's all kinds of egg on the face of the Coyotes these days. They have been dealing with another PR crisis for violating the NHL's combine testing policy. All the while, they have been open about promoting inclusion in both their hiring of a Latino president/CEO and in their initiative in targeting a non-white local audience to the sport of hockey. Choosing Miller in the first place showed either a lack of due diligence on checking his background, or a tone deafness on the choice of Miller if they knew the full extent of his actions before making the pick. At least they figured out that spinning this as trying to guide Miller in the right direction wasn't the right plan.

There should obviously be character requirements for being drafted, but should we completely eliminate a second chance for an 18-year-old? Perhaps Miller's current team (the University of North Dakota) should require him to communicate a clear, heartfelt apology to the victim (and not just to NHL teams), and make that a requirement of him playing hockey at their school and receiving scholarship money. I don't know how that all works, and I'm not saying that will completely fix things, but that might be a necessary first step. This isn't an easy fix. If Miller is in fact rehabilitated one day, he will still have to live with his actions.

I'm going to take a bit of a turn here, but not move away from this topic completely. Have you ever refused to draft or add a player on your fantasy team because you believed his actions were morally reprehensible? Perhaps you did because you were concerned that the player would be suspended or removed from the team and not worth the risk (think Antonio Brown in football). How about this scenario: If Miller were to take visible steps to becoming a better citizen, and an NHL team signed him, would you add him to your fantasy team if you thought he had value? I'd be interested to hear about how much you think this matters to a fantasy team.

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Those of you who are baseball fans no doubt had an opinion on Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash's decision to remove Blake Snell in Game 6 of the World Series. Snell was "dealing," yet analytics suggested that Snell's performance would decline at that point of the game (sixth inning, third time through the order). The low-budget Rays got to this point with their adherence to analytics, so the decision was par for the course, even if Snell and Rays fans were not happy. The decision didn't turn out well, as the Rays immediately coughed up a 1-0 lead once Snell left the game before eventually losing the game and the World Series to the LA Dodgers.

There's a valuable lesson that can be applied to fantasy leagues, which is that numbers cannot be used as a substitute to human judgment, particularly in key situations – numbers should only be used as an aid. If you use a draft cheatsheet of some kind, how often do you go off-script? Even though I use rankings and even create them, I won't necessarily follow them to a tee all the time.

For example, a rankings sheet might not tell me if I'm drafting too many players at one position or one stat category. One year, I created a rankings sheet that pushed goalies artificially high. In fact, this particular rankings system calculated Antti Raanta as a top 10 option – among all positions! Knowing that his ADP was outside the top 100, there's no way I could justify picking him in the top 10… or top 20… or even top 50. Not when I know he might still be around after pick 100.

Good managers use a well-thought-out plan, but they also know that this plan may not be effective for 100 percent of the decisions that they make. If you have a draft soon, build flexibility into your game plan. Maybe that player you've had your eye on for a while was selected too early… or a better option that you didn't think would be around has appeared. You never know how things might play out.

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Rest in peace, Travis Roy.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

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