Capped: Looking Ahead to the 2021 Free Agent Class

Alexander MacLean

2020-10-29

This summer's free agent class is almost wrapped up, and that means we get to spend the next few months in the offseason doldrums before we get offseason hockey again. Usually during the latter half of the offseason I'll bring back the team by team buy/sell series, but first we need to cover the annual early "way too early" look ahead to the next free agent class. Below are 10 free agents to keep an eye on.

 

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Alex Ovechkin (RW) – Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $9,538,462

Projected New Cap Hit: $7,920,659

We can't start with anyone but one of the biggest names in the game, the one chasing the all-time goals record, Mr. Ovechkin. Coming off a 13-year contract, the going theory is that either Ovechkin is going to be content with his cup, his bank account, and his accomplishments to date, and retire to Russia once his contract is up, or he will sign short-term deals until he has the NHL record for most career goals. If you own Ovechkin, then either way, now may be the time to get out. A short terms deal for a player of Ovechkin's caliber will be more along the lines of the legacy deals Joe Thornton was getting with the San Jose Sharks the last couple of years, more so than the discount price that he signed for this summer.

 

Ryan Getzlaf (C) – Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Hit: $8,250,000

Projected New Cap Hit: $3,417,246

At 36 this may be Getzlaf's chance to follow Corey Perry out of Anaheim and be a difference maker on a team chasing the Stanley Cup. Plenty of teams could use Getzlaf on a smaller contract as their second- or third-line centre, and Getzlaf would likely thrive in that kind of role not having to bear the burden of carrying an offence all on his own. The veteran centre was also having to manage more defensive zone faceoffs that he has in years past, as well as facing a higher quality of competition. If he does have one good year left in him, 2021-2022 will be it.

 

Taylor Hall (LW) – Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Hit: $8,000,000

Projected New Cap Hit: $8,940,186

Possibly back on the market again, it will be very interesting to see what happens to Taylor Hall both this coming season, and during the 2021 offseason. Hall's play this year will greatly dictate the size and length of his offers moving forward. Hall could exceed his AAV on a long-term deal if he shows well, and should have plenty more suitors next season as teams are able to plan for their cap better knowing ahead of time that the salary cap will stray flat at $81.5 million.

 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (LW) – Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Hit: $6,000,000

Projected New Cap Hit: $7,562,041

It caught me by surprise that Nugent-Hopkins could hit the free agent market in just one short year. The third-best forward on the Edmonton Oilers leaving via free agency would be a huge loss to a team already struggling to fill their depth. 'Nuge' fits in well in Edmonton, and it makes sense for both parties to work towards a long-term extension for him. His projected $7.5 million AAV would be an excellent starting point.

 

Gabriel Landeskog (LW) – Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $5,571,429

Projected New Cap Hit: $7,172,978

The Colorado Avalanche haven't been going after the big FA fish as they want to make sure they can re-sign their core pieces. That means there is little doubt that something should get worked out with Landeskog before free agency. However, what Landeskog brings to the Avalanche is nearly irreplaceable, so his price tag may balloon a little higher than the Avs would like. It could mean that they will be stuck next summer between extensions due to Landeskog and Cale Makar, and without the ability to add significant pieces to load up for a stronger Stanley Cup push.

 

Dougie Hamilton (D) – Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $5,750,000

Projected New Cap Hit: $8,229,996

Easily the top defenceman to possibly hit the market, Carolina would be making a huge mistake to let him get there. Having finally been given some freedom offensively, last season's injury-shortened breakout was what many viewers have been waiting to see out of Hamilton for years now. Hamilton should find himself comfortably close to Alex Pietrangelo's $8.8 million AAV from this summer. Carolina will have plenty of cap space next season, so fitting in Hamilton and a number one goalie should not be an issue unless an internal cap is imposed.

 

Frederik Andersen (G) – Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $5,000,000

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Projected New Cap Hit: $7,077,952

With the news that Kyle Dubas may have been shopping Andersen during the early offseason, it sounds as though the Leafs are ready for life without their starting goalie from the past four years. That would be a boon for Jack Campbell's value (assuming he is given the reins) while Andersen's value will fluctuate depending on where he goes next season. With less starting options likely to hit the market, Andersen could command a bit more than Jacob Markstrom did this summer. Expect Carolina, Detroit, and possibly Edmonton to be in on him. The Seattle draft also adds to the likelihood that Andersen won't get an extension anywhere before hitting the open market.

 

 

Jordan Binnington (G) – St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $4,400,000

Projected New Cap Hit: $8,302,495

Binnington will likely be with the Blues for the long haul at this point, because they won't be able to let go of their saviour and Cup-winning starting goalie. His play next season will dictate how high the AAV goes on his extension. Another sub-standard season and Binnington may not see a raise from the $4.4 million he is making now. However, if he bounces back (and my model seems to assume that he will) then the expiring contracts of Alex Steen and Tyler Bozak will free up enough cap space for the Blues to lock up Binnington to a large extension.

 

Phillip Danault (C) – Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Hit: $3,083,333

Projected New Cap Hit: $6,114,253

If Danault wants to stay with the Canadiens then it appears he will have to take a pay cut to do so. With young guns like Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi climbing the ranks and looking for pay bumps in the coming years, along with many long-term extensions already signed on the roster, there isn't room left under a flat cap for Danault at a fair price. After a conflict with the coaching staff over ice time, it seems that his days are numbered. Whether Danault is traded of just walks to the open market, expect him to earn a solid raise as one of the best defensive forwards in the league.

 

Erik Gustafsson (D) – Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $3,000,000

Projected New Cap Hit: $3,389,898

Gustafsson is a season removed from a 60-point pace and is again playing for a contract. He said early on in the 2020-2021 season that playing for a new contract was weighing on him. Hopefully for his sake (and the Flyers as well) he can compartmentalize it and play up to his full potential. If he can do that then the first powerplay unit will be his, and the 60-point barrier would again be more than just an optimistic achievement.

 

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HMs to the perpetually underrated forwards Kyle Palmieri, Jaden Schwartz, and David Krejci, the enigmas that are Nikita Gusez and Tyson Barrie, as well as Tuukka Rask who seems to be leaning towards retirement.

 

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All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

Stay safe!

 

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Previous Capped Articles:

Top Players in Cap Leagues Using AAV

The Highs and Lows of Free Agent Frenzy

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