Ramblings – Bubble Keepers: Thoughts on Chabot, Drouin, Labanc, DeBrusk, Bjorkstrand, Fiala, Hart, Duchene, Reinhart and many others (Nov 09)
Dobber
2020-11-09
The 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is out and ready for download! Also – the Draft List too! To my knowledge, this is the only fantasy hockey guide available right now. So if you're hankerin' for a fantasy guide and haven't tried mine yet, I guess now is as good a time as any.
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As you know, every year we have a full week in which we dedicate heavy analysis to those 'fringe' keepers in Keep 10, Keep 12, or even Keep 18 leagues that you just can't decide on. We time it for the middle of the offseason when these decisions need to be made. This year we've had to do our best guess for that – and we chose this week! All the columns this week are going to try to help you with those tough decisions.
For today, I reached out to you on Twitter. Which players are you agonizing over?
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Thomas Chabot is your best keeper here, assuming that you need to have defensemen on your roster and it's not just strictly points regardless of position. After this, despite his disappointment of never reach that 'peak level' you were hoping for, year after year, I think you take Sam Reinhart. He is attached at the hip with Jack Eichel, and Eichel is still getting better. Then Timo Meier, and then the unproven Joel Farabee. I don't mind Farabee's upside, but I wonder if he will take too long to get there. As in, longer than three more years. So do you want that sitting on your roster when you could trade him for a guy who could break out this year or next?
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Jack Hughes for me, the upside is truly worth it. Be patient. And no to Henrik Borgstrom, you can find another prospect I'm sure. No to Jake Muzzin at that price.
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Normally I lean defensemen in these types of options, but with Devon Toews now in Colorado I would go with Cole Caufield now.
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Kevin Fiala for sure, because I think he's a step away from true stardom. Meier of Dylan Larkin because of the Hits.
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Since you already have, in my mind, the two best goalies, then there is no need to keep a guy who probably sits around 12th (but will be Top 5 in my opinion, down the road). Lucky you, to have those goalies. I keep Oliver Bjorkstrand because his upside is as high as anyone's. If he can stay healthy he could have that really special year that you don't see many players get to. I think Matt Dumba is too risky for the final spot, so the final spot comes down to Ilya Mikheyev vs. Dominik Kubalik. I own both of these players in one of my leagues, so I need to close my eyes and decide which one I would rather hang onto. For this year I like Kubalik better, but in the long term I think Mikheyev can go higher. That being said, how will the other people in your league value them? If you let Kubalik go, he will get drafted fairly high. If you let Mikheyev go, he will get drafted a little later. So here is my strategy. I would rather let Kubalik go…but because of the latter point, I instead let Mikheyev go. Then I draft him back using a later draft pick than I would have needed to draft Kubalik back. But just make sure you come to terms with losing Mikheyev and being unable to re-draft him, because there is a strong likelihood of that happening.
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This is heavily dependent on your IR rules and league setup. The guy plays a very hardcore reckless game, with the potential for 300-plus Hits and 40 points. But he's been missing half-seasons with injuries. Sammy Blais' ice time is increasing, his Hits/game are increasing and his points/game are increasing. If your league counts Hits and allows for several IR slots, then he is a worthy keeper. Otherwise, he is not.
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- Nikita Kucherov
- David Pasternak
- Johnny Gaudreau
- Aleksander Barkov
- Mikko Rantanen, due to the injuries
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Cale Makar, David Pastrnak and Connor Hellebuyck.
Those are three players who are not considered "Bubble Keepers" for our purposes. They probably won't be covered in any articles written this week by the other writers. This is a Keep 3 so I get that this is a question that a lot of owners face – many are in the same boat. It's a very common league type. But this week we will be focused on the bigger keeper leagues when addressing the players on the bubble.
Not trying to throw shade on anyone's league format. I do encourage people to expand to 10 or more keepers (else abolish keeping anyone at all) and I’ll explain why. When you keep three or five or some other small number, it's really just allowing owners to hang onto their favorite players, and – sure – a lot of fantasy owners really like that. But to me, this format heavily favors the ones who own the elite guys Connor McDavid and/or Andrei Vasilevskiy (and soon we might be adding Makar to this list). It's equivalent to those two owners getting the first two overall picks every year. So that's why I would rather leagues keep a minimum of 10, or don't keep any at all. Because maybe those deeper players even things up – i.e. your No.7 through 10 players are far better than the McDavid owner's No.7 through 10. Anyway Colin, you're very lucky to have Makar and Hellebuyck, and Pastrnak too, for that matter. It's like owning three picks in the top 12 or 15. But half the teams in your league don't get to keep a McDavid, Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck, Makar or Leon Draisaitl – and those teams start this campaign off at a huge disadvantage. And every season thereafter. Because it's not as if the Draisaitl owner (for example) will ever give that young stud up – so for the next five or seven years that owner gets a huge advantage.
That's just my .02 on that league type! Sorry for the mini-rant. That was more aimed at any commissioners thinking about starting a keeper league, and wasn't meant to insult this league. A lot of people love the balance of keeping just a few, but otherwise doing a full re-draft. I was just sharing my feelings on it. Anyone else with points to make on this, feel free to comment!
If you want to start a keeper league, by the way, I have a list of several keeper league rules that I keep right here.
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If I'm being asked to pick one, it is Seth Jones. Always the defenseman if the quality is close, and always go proven over hopeful.
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I would keep Ilya Samsonov because I think he takes a run at 30 wins this year with outstanding peripherals. I would also keep Monahan. I think he will bounce back to flirt with 70. I think, factoring in possible injuries (to Yamamoto), Monahan out-points him by 10 or more. Last season was a strange one for the top Calgary line and I doubt it happens again.
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I keep Kevin Fiala here. A bit of a gamble going up against a steady guy like David Perron or Sam Reinhart. I also think Oliver Bjorkstrand has more upside. But Bjorkstrand had a couple of injuries and I would like to see that sort of thing stop before I consider him better than Fiala. Fiala had 51 points in his last 53 games last season (and in the play-in round, combined) and he will soon have Kirill Kaprizov to play with.
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Keep Mike Hoffman and Robert Thomas for sure. After that I would shy away from the Cody Glass injuries and the Jesperi Kotkaniemi slow development and just keep the proven Bo Horvat.
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What a tough question because in the Fantasy Guide I projected 52 points for Anders Lee and 53 points for each of Cam Atkinson and Alex Killorn. So it will come down to likelihood of getting there, likelihood of injuries, as well as their upside (how high can they go this year?). I like Atkinson for upside, but he is also the highest target for injuries. Killorn is reliant completely on linemates and becomes a 40-point player on a different line, whereas the other two players are not reliant on linemates as much.
Okay, final answer – go Atkinson.
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Not Vincent Trocheck. His injuries seemed to have eroded his fantasy value and, unlike with the other two, I have the least confidence in him recapturing it. Keep the other two.
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Carter Hart – He is a Tier 1 goalie in my monthly Top 100 because that is a keeper list. It factors this season and next, but also considers his future as a starting goalie – and it's pretty secure. He is a Tier 3 goalie in my projections for this season because his starts will be cannibalized by Brian Elliott. Getting 50 starts in an 82-game season (if they play that many, but that's another article) is not a certainty. So Hart is in the lowest tier for starting goalies – barely more than half the starts. For one-year leagues you want to go after the sure-thing starting goalies who get 55 starts or more. But long term, Hart is a fantastic and safe own. A Tier 1 keeper.
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I'm assuming defensemen are required in this league and it's not just simply points across all players. But even so, as much as I see Colton Parayko breaking out, he would be my No.3 on this list so he doesn't make the cut. Top two guys for me here are Thomas Hertl and Jakub Voracek.
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Nice one! A proven stud on a great team who year after year is a top goalie to own… up against, for my money, the best goaltender in the league despite very little experience and NHL history to back that up. I keep Shesterkin even if it means taking a haircut for the first year or two. He is worth keeping for what he will provide for the next decade.
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Dylan Strome. He is where Zadina will be in a two years, so you save the wait.
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Matt Duchene – you're looking at around 60 points in the coming year and that's probably status quo for the next three seasons. There's some upside to him, but also a bit of downside. And he tends to hit his upside when it's a contract year.
Alex Iafallo – I think Iafallo tops 50 points this season and I find myself tweaking his upside higher each year. He's been impressive. But his production relies heavily on linemates and I think he has more downside than upside. This should be his breakthrough year so getting to 60 is certain possible.
Andrew Mangiapane – I have him for the mid-40s in the Guide this year and what I love about him is that he's an overachiever. He keeps topping expectations. He's also a lock on a line with Matthew Tkachuk, which is nice. Two years from now I believe he's the best of the three here.
I think you have to go with Duchene due to the certainty of points here and now. If you fall out of contention you can easily trade him for Mangiapane at the deadline if it's looking like he'll be the better own in the future.
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There were a few mentions of Jonathan Drouin so I'll address them… I also had several people mention Jake DeBrusk, and a couple of Kevin Labanc mentions, so I'll tackle all three here.
Drouin – Everyone's favorite bust. But is he, though? Can we say this already when he's 25? He was a steady 50- to 55-point producer prior to last year, when he suffered injuries that cost him (and prior to the injury he was on a similar low-50s pace). He returned and posted seven points in 10 playoff games to lead the Habs. I think you can count on him for at least the low-50s and I would still give him another season to show us he can reach his upside. One more chance. I haven't written him off yet. And as I said, his 'floor' isn't that terrible.
DeBrusk – I have DeBrusk for 45 points in the year ahead and this is also his Breakout Threshold season (203 career games played). Things could spike for him. He's been terrible on the power play, so don't expect anything there, but a rebound to 45 points (or equivalent) is pretty safe and he could do even better due to the BT noted above.
Labanc – I don't know what happened last season, other than terrible puck luck. But Labanc is much, much better than that. He had been showing steady improvement in his production until last year's fiasco. I feel comfortable in a rebound season and I have him for 55 points in the year ahead. The organization is pinning their fortunes on him, so you can expect him to get top billing in terms of ice time and linemates.
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See you next Monday. And enjoy the rest of Bubble Keepers Week!
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